Imperial College London
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Dr Oliver (OJ) Watson

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

o.watson15

 
 
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Location

 

Translation & Innovation Hub BuildingWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Grassly:2020:10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30630-7,
author = {Grassly, NC and Pons-Salort, M and Parker, EPK and White, PJ and Ferguson, NM and Imperial, College COVID-19 Response Team},
doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30630-7},
journal = {Lancet Infectious Diseases},
pages = {1381--1389},
title = {Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30630-7},
volume = {20},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BACKGROUND: WHO has called for increased testing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but countries have taken different approaches and the effectiveness of alternative strategies is unknown. We aimed to investigate the potential impact of different testing and isolation strategies on transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission based on infectiousness and PCR test sensitivity over time since infection. We estimated the reduction in the effective reproduction number (R) achieved by testing and isolating symptomatic individuals, regular screening of high-risk groups irrespective of symptoms, and quarantine of contacts of laboratory-confirmed cases identified through test-and-trace protocols. The expected effectiveness of different testing strategies was defined as the percentage reduction in R. We reviewed data on the performance of antibody tests reported by the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics and examined their implications for the use of so-called immunity passports. FINDINGS: If all individuals with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 self-isolated and self-isolation was 100% effective in reducing onwards transmission, self-isolation of symptomatic individuals would result in a reduction in R of 47% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 32-55). PCR testing to identify SARS-CoV-2 infection soon after symptom onset could reduce the number of individuals needing to self-isolate, but would also reduce the effectiveness of self-isolation (around 10% would be false negatives). Weekly screening of health-care workers and other high-risk groups irrespective of symptoms by use of PCR testing is estimated to reduce their contribution to SARS-CoV-2 transmission by 23% (95% UI 16-40), on top of reductions achieved by self-isolation following symptoms, assuming results are available at 24 h. The effectiveness of test and trace depends strongly on coverage and the timelines
AU  - Grassly,NC
AU  - Pons-Salort,M
AU  - Parker,EPK
AU  - White,PJ
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Imperial,College COVID-19 Response Team
DO  - 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30630-7
EP  - 1389
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 1473-3099
SP  - 1381
TI  - Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study
T2  - Lancet Infectious Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30630-7
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32822577
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309920306307?via%3Dihub
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85978
VL  - 20
ER  -
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