Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

Dr Oliver (OJ) Watson

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Lecturer
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

o.watson15

 
 
//

Location

 

Translation & Innovation Hub BuildingWhite City Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Barnett-Howell:2021:trstmh/traa140,
author = {Barnett-Howell, Z and Watson, OJ and Mobarak, AM},
doi = {trstmh/traa140},
journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene},
title = {The benefits and costs of social distancing in high- and low-income countries},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/traa140},
volume = {traa140},
year = {2021}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundWidespread social distancing and lockdowns of everyday activity have been the primary policy prescription across many countries throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Despite their uniformity, these measures may be differentially valuable for different countries.MethodsWe use a compartmental epidemiological model to project the spread of COVID-19 across policy scenarios in high- and low-income countries. We embed estimates of the welfare value of disease avoidance into the epidemiological projections to estimate the return to more stringent lockdown policies.ResultsSocial distancing measures that ‘flatten the curve’ of the disease provide immense welfare value in upper-income countries. However, social distancing policies deliver significantly less value in lower-income countries that have younger populations, which are less vulnerable to COVID-19. Equally important, social distancing mandates a trade-off between disease risk and economic activity. Poorer people are less able to make those economic sacrifices.ConclusionsThe epidemiological and welfare value of social distancing is smaller in lower-income countries and such policies may exact a heavy toll on the poorest and most vulnerable. Workers in the informal sector often lack the resources and social protections that enable them to isolate themselves until the virus passes. By limiting these households’ ability to earn a living, social distancing can lead to an increase in hunger, deprivation, and related mortality and morbidity.
AU  - Barnett-Howell,Z
AU  - Watson,OJ
AU  - Mobarak,AM
DO  - trstmh/traa140
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0035-9203
TI  - The benefits and costs of social distancing in high- and low-income countries
T2  - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/traa140
UR  - https://academic.oup.com/trstmh/advance-article/doi/10.1093/trstmh/traa140/6095749
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86028
VL  - traa140
ER  -
Download