Publications
93 results found
Vollmer M, Mishra S, Unwin J, et al., 2020, A sub-national analysis of the rate of transmission of COVID-19 in Italy, medRxiv
Italy was the first European country to experience sustained local transmission of COVID-19. As of 1st May 2020, the Italian health authorities reported 28,238 deaths nationally. To control the epidemic, the Italian government implemented a suite of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including school and university closures, social distancing and full lockdown involving banning of public gatherings and non essential movement. In this report, we model the effect of NPIs on transmission using data on average mobility. We estimate that the average reproduction number (a measure of transmission intensity) is currently below one for all Italian regions, and significantly so for the majority of the regions. Despite the large number of deaths, the proportion of population that has been infected by SARS-CoV-2 (the attack rate) is far from the herd immunity threshold in all Italian regions, with the highest attack rate observed in Lombardy (13.18% [10.66%-16.70%]). Italy is set to relax the currently implemented NPIs from 4th May 2020. Given the control achieved by NPIs, we consider three scenarios for the next 8 weeks: a scenario in which mobility remains the same as during the lockdown, a scenario in which mobility returns to pre-lockdown levels by 20%, and a scenario in which mobility returns to pre-lockdown levels by 40%. The scenarios explored assume that mobility is scaled evenly across all dimensions, that behaviour stays the same as before NPIs were implemented, that no pharmaceutical interventions are introduced, and it does not include transmission reduction from contact tracing, testing and the isolation of confirmed or suspected cases. New interventions, such as enhanced testing and contact tracing are going to be introduced and will likely contribute to reductions in transmission; therefore our estimates should be viewed as pessimistic projections. We find that, in the absence of additional interventions, even a 20% return to pre-lockdown mobility could le
Mellan T, Hoeltgebaum H, Mishra S, et al., 2020, Report 21: Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil
Brazil is an epicentre for COVID-19 in Latin America. In this report we describe the Brazilian epidemicusing three epidemiological measures: the number of infections, the number of deaths and the reproduction number. Our modelling framework requires sufficient death data to estimate trends, and wetherefore limit our analysis to 16 states that have experienced a total of more than fifty deaths. Thedistribution of deaths among states is highly heterogeneous, with 5 states—São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro,Ceará, Pernambuco and Amazonas—accounting for 81% of deaths reported to date. In these states, weestimate that the percentage of people that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 ranges from 3.3% (95%CI: 2.8%-3.7%) in São Paulo to 10.6% (95% CI: 8.8%-12.1%) in Amazonas. The reproduction number (ameasure of transmission intensity) at the start of the epidemic meant that an infected individual wouldinfect three or four others on average. Following non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school closures and decreases in population mobility, we show that the reproduction number has dropped substantially in each state. However, for all 16 states we study, we estimate with high confidence that thereproduction number remains above 1. A reproduction number above 1 means that the epidemic isnot yet controlled and will continue to grow. These trends are in stark contrast to other major COVID19 epidemics in Europe and Asia where enforced lockdowns have successfully driven the reproductionnumber below 1. While the Brazilian epidemic is still relatively nascent on a national scale, our resultssuggest that further action is needed to limit spread and prevent health system overload.
Vollmer M, Mishra S, Unwin H, et al., 2020, Report 20: A sub-national analysis of the rate of transmission of Covid-19 in Italy
Italy was the first European country to experience sustained local transmission of COVID-19. As of 1st May 2020, the Italian health authorities reported 28; 238 deaths nationally. To control the epidemic, the Italian government implemented a suite of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including school and university closures, social distancing and full lockdown involving banning of public gatherings and non essential movement. In this report, we model the effect of NPIs on transmission using data on average mobility. We estimate that the average reproduction number (a measure of transmission intensity) is currently below one for all Italian regions, and significantly so for the majority of the regions. Despite the large number of deaths, the proportion of population that has been infected by SARS-CoV-2 (the attack rate) is far from the herd immunity threshold in all Italian regions, with the highest attack rate observed in Lombardy (13.18% [10.66%-16.70%]). Italy is set to relax the currently implemented NPIs from 4th May 2020. Given the control achieved by NPIs, we consider three scenarios for the next 8 weeks: a scenario in which mobility remains the same as during the lockdown, a scenario in which mobility returns to pre-lockdown levels by 20%, and a scenario in which mobility returns to pre-lockdown levels by 40%. The scenarios explored assume that mobility is scaled evenly across all dimensions, that behaviour stays the same as before NPIs were implemented, that no pharmaceutical interventions are introduced, and it does not include transmission reduction from contact tracing, testing and the isolation of confirmed or suspected cases. We find that, in the absence of additional interventions, even a 20% return to pre-lockdown mobility could lead to a resurgence in the number of deaths far greater than experienced in the current wave in several regions. Future increases in the number of deaths will lag behind the increase in transmission intensity and so a
Hoornenborg E, Coyer L, Boyd A, et al., 2020, High incidence of HCV in HIV-negative men who have sex with men using pre-exposure prophylaxis, Journal of Hepatology, Vol: 72, Pages: 855-864, ISSN: 0168-8278
Background & AimsHCV has emerged as a sexually transmitted infection (STI) among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM). We evaluated HCV incidence and its risk factors among HIV-negative MSM using HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).MethodsParticipants of the Amsterdam PrEP project were tested for HCV antibodies or HCV-RNA every 6 months. Participants used daily or event-driven PrEP and could switch regimens during follow-up. We calculated incidence rates (IRs) for overall HCV infection and separately for primary and re-infection. A univariable Bayesian exponential survival model was used to identify risk factors associated with incident HCV infection. The HCV NS5B gene fragment (709 bp) was sequenced and compared to HCV isolates from HIV-positive MSM and other risk groups (n = 419) using phylogenetic analysis.ResultsAmong 350 participants contributing 653.6 person-years (PYs), we detected 15 HCV infections in 14 participants (IR = 2.30/100PY). There were 8 primary infections (IR = 1.27/100PY) and 7 re-infections (IR = 27.8/100PY). IR was 2.71/100PY in daily and 1.15/100PY in event-driven PrEP users. Factors associated with incident HCV infection were higher number of receptive condomless anal sex acts with casual partners (posterior hazard ratio [HR] 1.57 per ln increase; 95% credibility interval [CrI] 1.09–2.20), anal STI (posterior HR 2.93; 95% CrI 1.24–7.13), injecting drug use (posterior HR 4.69; 95% CrI 1.61–12.09) and sharing straws when snorting drugs (posterior HR 2.62; 95% CrI 1.09–6.02). We identified robust MSM-specific HCV clusters of subtypes 1a, 4d, 2b and 3a, which included MSM with and without HIV.ConclusionsHIV-negative MSM using PrEP are at risk of incident HCV infection, while identified risk factors are similar to those in HIV-positive MSM. Regular HCV testing is needed, especially for those with a previous HCV infection and those reporting risk factors.Lay summaryWe report that hepatitis C virus infections are
Bbosa N, Ssemwanga D, Ssekagiri A, et al., 2020, Phylogenetic and demographic characterization of directed HIV-1 transmission using deep sequences from high-risk and general population cohorts/groups in Uganda, Viruses, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1999-4915
Across sub-Saharan Africa, key populations with elevated HIV-1 incidence and/or prevalence have been identified, but their contribution to disease spread remains unclear. We performed viral deep-sequence phylogenetic analyses to quantify transmission dynamics between the general population (GP), fisherfolk communities (FF), and women at high risk of infection and their clients (WHR) in central and southwestern Uganda. Between August 2014 and August 2017, 6185 HIV-1 positive individuals were enrolled in 3 GP and 10 FF communities, 3 WHR enrollment sites. A total of 2531 antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve participants with plasma viral load >1000 copies/mL were deep-sequenced. One hundred and twenty-three transmission networks were reconstructed, including 105 phylogenetically highly supported source-recipient pairs. Only one pair involved a WHR and male participant, suggesting that improved population sampling is needed to assess empirically the role of WHR to the transmission dynamics. More transmissions were observed from the GP communities to FF communities than vice versa, with an estimated flow ratio of 1.56 (95% CrI 0.68-3.72), indicating that fishing communities on Lake Victoria are not a net source of transmission flow to neighboring communities further inland. Men contributed disproportionally to HIV-1 transmission flow regardless of age, suggesting that prevention efforts need to better aid men to engage with and stay in care.
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