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@techreport{Vollmer:2020:10.25561/78677,
author = {Vollmer, M and Mishra, S and Unwin, H and Gandy, A and Melan, T and Bradley, V and Zhu, H and Coupland, H and Hawryluk, I and Hutchinson, M and Ratmann, O and Monod, M and Walker, P and Whittaker, C and Cattarino, L and Ciavarella, C and Cilloni, L and Ainslie, K and Baguelin, M and Bhatia, S and Boonyasiri, A and Brazeau, N and Charles, G and Cooper, L and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Dighe, A and Djaafara, A and Eaton, J and van, Elsland S and Fitzjohn, R and Gaythorpe, K and Green, W and Hayes, S and Imai, N and Jeffrey, B and Knock, E and Laydon, D and Lees, J and Mangal, T and Mousa, A and Nedjati, Gilani G and Nouvellet, P and Olivera, Mesa D and Parag, K and Pickles, M and Thompson, H and Verity, R and Walters, C and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Watson, O and Whittles, L and Xi, X and Ghani, A and Riley, S and Okell, L and Donnelly, C and Ferguson, N and Dorigatti, I and Flaxman, S and Bhatt, S},
doi = {10.25561/78677},
title = {Report 20: A sub-national analysis of the rate of transmission of Covid-19 in Italy},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/78677},
year = {2020}
}

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TY  - RPRT
AB  - Italy was the first European country to experience sustained local transmission of COVID-19. As of 1st May 2020, the Italian health authorities reported 28; 238 deaths nationally. To control the epidemic, the Italian government implemented a suite of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including school and university closures, social distancing and full lockdown involving banning of public gatherings and non essential movement. In this report, we model the effect of NPIs on transmission using data on average mobility. We estimate that the average reproduction number (a measure of transmission intensity) is currently below one for all Italian regions, and significantly so for the majority of the regions. Despite the large number of deaths, the proportion of population that has been infected by SARS-CoV-2 (the attack rate) is far from the herd immunity threshold in all Italian regions, with the highest attack rate observed in Lombardy (13.18% [10.66%-16.70%]). Italy is set to relax the currently implemented NPIs from 4th May 2020. Given the control achieved by NPIs, we consider three scenarios for the next 8 weeks: a scenario in which mobility remains the same as during the lockdown, a scenario in which mobility returns to pre-lockdown levels by 20%, and a scenario in which mobility returns to pre-lockdown levels by 40%. The scenarios explored assume that mobility is scaled evenly across all dimensions, that behaviour stays the same as before NPIs were implemented, that no pharmaceutical interventions are introduced, and it does not include transmission reduction from contact tracing, testing and the isolation of confirmed or suspected cases. We find that, in the absence of additional interventions, even a 20% return to pre-lockdown mobility could lead to a resurgence in the number of deaths far greater than experienced in the current wave in several regions. Future increases in the number of deaths will lag behind the increase in transmission intensity and so a
AU  - Vollmer,M
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Unwin,H
AU  - Gandy,A
AU  - Melan,T
AU  - Bradley,V
AU  - Zhu,H
AU  - Coupland,H
AU  - Hawryluk,I
AU  - Hutchinson,M
AU  - Ratmann,O
AU  - Monod,M
AU  - Walker,P
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Cattarino,L
AU  - Ciavarella,C
AU  - Cilloni,L
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Brazeau,N
AU  - Charles,G
AU  - Cooper,L
AU  - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Dighe,A
AU  - Djaafara,A
AU  - Eaton,J
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Green,W
AU  - Hayes,S
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Jeffrey,B
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Lees,J
AU  - Mangal,T
AU  - Mousa,A
AU  - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU  - Nouvellet,P
AU  - Olivera,Mesa D
AU  - Parag,K
AU  - Pickles,M
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Wang,Y
AU  - Watson,O
AU  - Whittles,L
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Okell,L
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Bhatt,S
DO  - 10.25561/78677
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Report 20: A sub-national analysis of the rate of transmission of Covid-19 in Italy
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/78677
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-04-COVID19-Report-20.pdf
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/78677
ER  -

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