Imperial College London
Alternate

DrOliverRatmann

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Mathematics

Reader in Statistics and Machine Learning for Public Good
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

oliver.ratmann05 Website

 
 
//

Location

 

525Huxley BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Blenkinsop:2022:10.7554/eLife.76487,
author = {Blenkinsop, A and Monod, M and van, Sighem A and Pantazis, N and Bezemer, D and Op, de Coul E and van, de Laar T and Fraser, C and Prins, M and Reiss, P and de, Bree G and Ratmann, O},
doi = {10.7554/eLife.76487},
journal = {eLife},
title = {Estimating the potential to prevent locally acquired HIV infections in a UNAIDS Fast-Track City, Amsterdam},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.76487},
volume = {11},
year = {2022}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background:More than 300 cities including the city of Amsterdam in the Netherlands have joined the UNAIDS Fast-Track Cities initiative, committing to accelerate their HIV response and end the AIDS epidemic in cities by 2030. To support this commitment, we aimed to estimate the number and proportion of Amsterdam HIV infections that originated within the city, from Amsterdam residents. We also aimed to estimate the proportion of recent HIV infections during the 5-year period 2014–2018 in Amsterdam that remained undiagnosed.Methods:We located diagnosed HIV infections in Amsterdam using postcode data (PC4) at time of registration in the ATHENA observational HIV cohort, and used HIV sequence data to reconstruct phylogeographically distinct, partially observed Amsterdam transmission chains. Individual-level infection times were estimated from biomarker data, and used to date the phylogenetically observed transmission chains as well as to estimate undiagnosed proportions among recent infections. A Bayesian Negative Binomial branching process model was used to estimate the number, size, and growth of the unobserved Amsterdam transmission chains from the partially observed phylogenetic data.Results:Between 1 January 2014 and 1 May 2019, there were 846 HIV diagnoses in Amsterdam residents, of whom 516 (61%) were estimated to have been infected in 2014–2018. The rate of new Amsterdam diagnoses since 2014 (104 per 100,000) remained higher than the national rates excluding Amsterdam (24 per 100,000), and in this sense Amsterdam remained a HIV hotspot in the Netherlands. An estimated 14% [12–16%] of infections in Amsterdan MSM in 2014–2018 remained undiagnosed by 1 May 2019, and 41% [35–48%] in Amsterdam heterosexuals, with variation by region of birth. An estimated 67% [60–74%] of Amsterdam MSM infections in 2014–2018 had an Amsterdam resident as source, and 56% [41–70%] in Amsterdam heterosexuals, with heterogeneity by region of b
AU  - Blenkinsop,A
AU  - Monod,M
AU  - van,Sighem A
AU  - Pantazis,N
AU  - Bezemer,D
AU  - Op,de Coul E
AU  - van,de Laar T
AU  - Fraser,C
AU  - Prins,M
AU  - Reiss,P
AU  - de,Bree G
AU  - Ratmann,O
DO  - 10.7554/eLife.76487
PY  - 2022///
SN  - 2050-084X
TI  - Estimating the potential to prevent locally acquired HIV infections in a UNAIDS Fast-Track City, Amsterdam
T2  - eLife
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.76487
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/98635
VL  - 11
ER  -
Download