Imperial College London
Alternate

DrOliverRatmann

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Mathematics

Reader in Statistics and Machine Learning for Public Good
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

oliver.ratmann05 Website

 
 
//

Location

 

525Huxley BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Arinaminpathy:2012:10.1073/pnas.1113342109,
author = {Arinaminpathy, N and Ratmann, O and Koelle, K and Epstein, SL and Price, GE and Viboud, C and Miller, MA and Grenfell, BT},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1113342109},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA},
pages = {3173--3177},
title = {Impact of cross-protective vaccines on epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1113342109},
volume = {109},
year = {2012}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Large-scale immunization has profoundly impacted control of many infectious diseases such as measles and smallpox because of the ability of vaccination campaigns to maintain long-term herd immunity and, hence, indirect protection of the unvaccinated. In the case of human influenza, such potential benefits of mass vaccination have so far proved elusive. The central difficulty is a considerable viral capacity for immune escape; new pandemic variants, as well as viral escape mutants in seasonal influenza, compromise the buildup of herd immunity from natural infection or deployment of current vaccines. Consequently, most current influenza vaccination programs focus mainly on protection of specific risk groups, rather than mass prophylactic protection. Here, we use epidemiological models to show that emerging vaccine technologies, aimed at broad-spectrum protection, could qualitatively alter this picture. We demonstrate that sustained immunization with such vaccines could—through potentially lowering transmission rates and improving herd immunity—significantly moderate both influenza pandemic and seasonal epidemics. More subtly, phylodynamic models indicate that widespread cross-protective immunization could slow the antigenic evolution of seasonal influenza; these effects have profound implications for a transition to mass vaccination strategies against human influenza, and for the management of antigenically variable viruses in general.
AU  - Arinaminpathy,N
AU  - Ratmann,O
AU  - Koelle,K
AU  - Epstein,SL
AU  - Price,GE
AU  - Viboud,C
AU  - Miller,MA
AU  - Grenfell,BT
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.1113342109
EP  - 3177
PY  - 2012///
SN  - 0027-8424
SP  - 3173
TI  - Impact of cross-protective vaccines on epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza
T2  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1113342109
UR  - https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000300495100096&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
UR  - https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1113342109
VL  - 109
ER  -
Download