Imperial College London
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ProfessorPaulAylin

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

p.aylin Website

 
 
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Location

 

Reynolds BuildingCharing Cross Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Christen:2021:10.1097/MLR.0000000000001502,
author = {Christen, P and D'Aeth, J and Lochen, A and McCabe, R and Rizmie, D and Schmit, N and Nayagam, S and Miraldo, M and Aylin, P and Bottle, A and Perez, Guzman P and Donnelly, C and Ghani, A and Ferguson, N and White, P and Hauck, K},
doi = {10.1097/MLR.0000000000001502},
journal = {Medical Care},
pages = {371--378},
title = {The J-IDEA pandemic planner: a framework for implementing hospital provision interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MLR.0000000000001502},
volume = {59},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background : Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patientsrequiring urgent life-saving treatment for COVID-19, whilst retaining capacity for otheremergency conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by healthcareproviders and policymakers during the pandemic. Health systems must be wellpreparedto cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementinginterventions to ensure adequate access to care. We developed the first planning toolfor the COVID-19 pandemic to account for how hospital provision interventions (suchas cancelling elective surgery, setting up field hospitals, or hiring retired staff) will affectthe capacity of hospitals to provide life-saving care.Methods : We conducted a review of interventions implemented or considered in 12 European countries in March-April 2020, an evaluation of their impact on capacity, anda review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients. This information wasused to develop a planner capable of estimating the impact of specific interventions ondoctors, nurses, beds and respiratory support equipment. We applied this to ascenario-based case study of one intervention, the set-up of field hospitals in England,under varying levels of COVID-19 patients.Results : The J-IDEA pandemic planner is a hospital planning tool that allows hospitaladministrators, policymakers and other decision-makers to calculate the amount ofcapacity in terms of beds, staff and crucial medical equipment obtained byimplementing the interventions. Flexible assumptions on baseline capacity, the numberof hospitalisations, staff-to-beds ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19 make theplanner adaptable to multiple settings. The results of the case study show that whilefield hospitals alleviate the burden on the number of beds available, this intervention isfutile unless the deficit of critical care nurses is addressed first.Discussion : The tool supports decision-makers in delivering a fast and effectiveresponse to
AU  - Christen,P
AU  - D'Aeth,J
AU  - Lochen,A
AU  - McCabe,R
AU  - Rizmie,D
AU  - Schmit,N
AU  - Nayagam,S
AU  - Miraldo,M
AU  - Aylin,P
AU  - Bottle,A
AU  - Perez,Guzman P
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - White,P
AU  - Hauck,K
DO  - 10.1097/MLR.0000000000001502
EP  - 378
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0025-7079
SP  - 371
TI  - The J-IDEA pandemic planner: a framework for implementing hospital provision interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic
T2  - Medical Care
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MLR.0000000000001502
UR  - https://journals.lww.com/lww-medicalcare/Abstract/9000/The_J_IDEA_Pandemic_Planner__A_Framework_for.98210.aspx
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/84581
VL  - 59
ER  -
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