Imperial College London
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Dr Paul Balcombe

Faculty of Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering

Honorary Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

p.balcombe

 
 
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Location

 

10-12 Prince's GardensSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Auger:2021:10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.008,
author = {Auger, T and Truby, J and Balcombe, P and Staffell, I},
doi = {10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.008},
journal = {Joule},
pages = {1462--1484},
title = {The future of coal investment, trade, and stranded assets},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.008},
volume = {5},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Coal is at a crossroads, with divestment and phase-out in the West countered by the surging growth throughout Asia. Global energy scenarios suggest that coal consumption could halve over the next decade, but the business and geopolitical implications of this profound shift remain underexplored. We investigate coal markets to 2040 using a perfect competition techno-economic model. In a well-below-2°C scenario, Europe, North America, and Australia suffer from over-capacity, with one-third of today’s mines becoming stranded assets. New mines are needed to offset retirements, but a new commodity cycle in the 2030s can be avoided. Coal prices decline as only the most competitive mines survive, and trade volumes fall to give more insular national markets. Regions stand to gain or lose tens of billions of dollars per year from reducing import bills or export revenues. Understanding and preparing for these changes could ease the transition away from coal following 150 years of dominance.
AU  - Auger,T
AU  - Truby,J
AU  - Balcombe,P
AU  - Staffell,I
DO  - 10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.008
EP  - 1484
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2542-4351
SP  - 1462
TI  - The future of coal investment, trade, and stranded assets
T2  - Joule
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.008
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000663028600014&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435121002439?via%3Dihub
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/91415
VL  - 5
ER  -
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