Publications
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Redd R, Cooper E, Atchison C, et al., 2021, Behavioural responses to SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing in England: REACT-2 study, Wellcome Open Research, Vol: 6, Pages: 203-203
<ns3:p><ns3:bold>Background: </ns3:bold>This study assesses the behavioural responses to SARS-CoV-2 antibody test results as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-2 (REACT-2) research programme, a large community-based surveillance study of antibody prevalence in England.</ns3:p><ns3:p> <ns3:bold>Methods:</ns3:bold> A follow-up survey was conducted six weeks after the SARS-CoV-2 antibody test. The follow-up survey included 4500 people with a positive result and 4039 with a negative result. Reported changes in behaviour were assessed using difference-in-differences models. A nested interview study was conducted with 40 people to explore how they thought through their behavioural decisions.</ns3:p><ns3:p> <ns3:bold>Results:</ns3:bold> While respondents reduced their protective behaviours over the six weeks, we did not find evidence that positive test results changed participant behaviour trajectories in relation to the number of contacts the respondents had, for leaving the house to go to work, or for leaving the house to socialise in a personal place. The qualitative findings supported these results. Most people did not think that they had changed their behaviours because of their test results, however they did allude to some changes in their attitudes and perceptions around risk, susceptibility, and potential severity of symptoms.</ns3:p><ns3:p> <ns3:bold>Conclusions: </ns3:bold>We found limited evidence that knowing your antibody status leads to behaviour change in the context of a research study. While this finding should not be generalised to widespread self-testing in other contexts, it is reassuring given the importance of large prevalence studies, and the practicalities of doing these at scale using self-testing with lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA).</ns3:p>
Ward H, Flower B, Garcia PJ, et al., 2021, Global surveillance, research, and collaboration needed to improve understanding and management of long COVID, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 2057-2059, ISSN: 0140-6736
Liu Y, Chu H, Peng K, et al., 2021, Factors Associated With the Use of a Salt Substitute in Rural China., Jama Network Open, Vol: 4, Pages: e2137745-e2137745, ISSN: 2574-3805
Importance: Lowering sodium intake reduces blood pressure and may reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases. The use of reduced-sodium salt (a salt substitute) may achieve sodium reduction, but its effectiveness may be associated with the context of its use. Objective: To identify factors associated with the use of salt substitutes in rural populations in China within the Salt Substitute and Stroke Study, a large-scale cluster randomized trial. Design, Setting, and Participants: This sequential mixed-methods qualitative evaluation, conducted from July 2 to August 28, 2018, in rural communities across 3 provinces in China, included a quantitative survey, collection of 24-hour urine samples, and face-to-face interviews. A random subsample of trial participants, selected from the 3 provinces, completed the quantitative survey (n = 1170) and provided urine samples (n = 1025). Interview respondents were purposively selected from the intervention group based on their different ranges of urinary sodium excretion levels. Statistical analysis was performed from September 18, 2018, to February 22, 2019. Exposures: The intervention group of the Salt Substitute and Stroke Study was provided with the free salt substitute while the control group continued to use regular salt. Main Outcomes and Measures: Knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors regarding the use of the salt substitute were measured using quantitative surveys, and urinary sodium levels were measured using 24-hour urine samples. Contextual factors were explored through semistructured interviews and integrated findings from surveys and interviews. Results: A total of 1170 individuals participated in the quantitative survey. Among the 1025 participants with successful urine samples, the mean (SD) age was 67.4 (7.5) years, and 502 (49.0%) were female. The estimated salt intake of participants who believed that high salt intake was good for health was higher; however, it was not significantly dif
Lai A, Lee M, Carter E, et al., 2021, A chemical investigation of household solid fuel use and outdoor air pollution contributions to personal PM2.5 exposures, Environmental Science and Technology (Washington), Vol: 55, Pages: 15969-15979, ISSN: 0013-936X
In communities with household solid fuel use, transitioning to clean stoves/fuels often results in only moderate reductions in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposures; the chemical composition of those exposures may help explain why. We collected personal exposure (men and women) and outdoor PM2.5 samples in villages in three Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Beijing, and Guangxi) and measured chemical components, including water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC), ions, elements, and organic tracers. Source contributions from chemical mass balance modeling (biomass burning, coal combustion, vehicles, dust, and secondary inorganic aerosol) were similar between outdoor and personal PM2.5 samples. Principal component analysis of organic and inorganic components identified analogous sources, including a regional ambient source. Chemical components of PM2.5 exposures did not differ significantly by gender. Participants using coal had higher personal/outdoor (P/O) ratios of coal combustion tracers (picene, sulfate, As, and Pb) than those not using coal, but no such trend was observed for biomass burning tracers (levoglucosan, K+, WSOC). Picene and most levoglucosan P/O ratios exceeded 1 even among participants not using coal and biomass, respectively, indicating substantial indirect exposure to solid fuel emissions from other homes. Contributions of community-level emissions to exposures suggest that meaningful exposure reductions will likely require extensive fuel use changes within communities.
Chadeau-Hyam M, Eales O, Bodinier B, et al., 2021, REACT-1 round 15 final report: Increased breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections among adults who had received two doses of vaccine, but booster doses and first doses in children are providing important protection
Background: It has been nearly a year since the first vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2were delivered in England. The third wave of COVID-19 in England began in May 2021 asthe Delta variant began to outcompete and largely replace other strains. The REal-timeAssessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) series of community surveys forSARS-CoV-2 infection has provided insights into transmission dynamics since May 2020.Round 15 of the REACT-1 study was carried out from 19 October to 5 November 2021.Methods: We estimated prevalence of SARS-CoV2 infection and used multiple logisticregression to analyse associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection in England anddemographic and other risk factors, based on RT-PCR results from self-administered throatand nose swabs in over 100,000 participants. We estimated (single-dose) vaccineeffectiveness among children aged 12 to 17 years, and among adults comparedswab-positivity in people who had received a third (booster) dose with those who hadreceived two vaccine doses. We used splines to analyse time trends in swab-positivity.Results: During mid-October to early-November 2021, weighted prevalence was 1.57%(1.48%, 1.66%) compared to 0.83% (0.76%, 0.89%) in September 2021 (round 14).Weighted prevalence increased between rounds 14 and 15 across most age groups(including older ages, 65 years and over) and regions, with average reproduction numberacross rounds of R=1.09 (1.08, 1.11). During round 15, there was a fall in prevalence from amaximum around 20-21 October, with an R of 0.76 (0.70, 0.83), reflecting falls in prevalenceat ages 17 years and below and 18 to 54 years. School-aged children had the highestweighted prevalence of infection: 4.95% (4.39%, 5.58%) in those aged 5 to 12 years and5.21% (4.61%, 5.87%) in those aged 13 to 17 years. In multiple logistic regression, age, sex,key worker status and presence of one or more children in the home were associated withswab positivity. There was evidence of heterogeneity between rounds in
Chadeau-Hyam M, Eales O, Bodinier B, et al., 2021, REACT-1 round 15 interim report: Exponential rise in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England from end September 2021 followed by dip during October 2021
Background: The third wave of COVID-19 in England coincided with the rapid spread of theDelta variant of SARS-CoV-2 from the end of May 2021. Case incidence data from thenational testing programme (Pillar 2) in England may be affected by changes in testingbehaviour and other biases. Community surveys may provide important contextualinformation to inform policy and the public health response.Methods: We estimated patterns of community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection inEngland using RT-PCR swab-positivity, demographic and other risk factor data from round15 (interim) of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study(round 15a, carried out from 19 to 29 October 2021). We compared these findings with thosefrom round 14 (9 to 27 September 2021).Results: During mid- to late-October 2021 (round 15a) weighted prevalence was 1.72%(1.61%, 1.84%) compared to 0.83% (0.76%, 0.89%) in September 2021 (round 14). Theoverall reproduction number (R) from round 14 to round 15a was 1.12 (1.11, 1.14) withincreases in prevalence over this period (September to October) across age groups andregions except Yorkshire and The Humber. However, within round 15a (mid- to late-October)there was evidence of a fall in prevalence with R of 0.76 (0.65, 0.88). The highest weightedprevalence was observed among children aged 5 to 12 years at 5.85% (5.10%, 6.70%) and13 to 17 years at 5.75% (5.02%, 6.57%). At regional level, there was an almost four-foldincrease in weighted prevalence in South West from round 14 at 0.59% (0.43%,0.80%) toround 15a at 2.18% (1.84%, 2.58%), with highest smoothed prevalence at subregional levelalso found in South West in round 15a. Age, sex, key worker status, and presence ofchildren in the home jointly contributed to the risk of swab-positivity. Among the 126sequenced positive swabs obtained up until 23 October, all were Delta variant; 13 (10.3%)were identified as the AY.4.2 sub-lineage.Discussion: We observed the highest overall prevalence of swab-p
van Vliet NA, Bos MM, Thesing CS, et al., 2021, Higher thyrotropin leads to unfavorable lipid profile and somewhat higher cardiovascular disease risk: evidence from multi-cohort Mendelian randomization and metabolomic profiling, BMC Medicine, Vol: 19, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 1741-7015
BackgroundObservational studies suggest interconnections between thyroid status, metabolism, and risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), but causality remains to be proven. The present study aimed to investigate the potential causal relationship between thyroid status and cardiovascular disease and to characterize the metabolomic profile associated with thyroid status.MethodsMulti-cohort two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed utilizing genome-wide significant variants as instruments for standardized thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (fT4) within the reference range. Associations between TSH and fT4 and metabolic profile were investigated in a two-stage manner: associations between TSH and fT4 and the full panel of 161 metabolomic markers were first assessed hypothesis-free, then directional consistency was assessed through Mendelian randomization, another metabolic profile platform, and in individuals with biochemically defined thyroid dysfunction.ResultsCirculating TSH was associated with 52/161 metabolomic markers, and fT4 levels were associated with 21/161 metabolomic markers among 9432 euthyroid individuals (median age varied from 23.0 to 75.4 years, 54.5% women). Positive associations between circulating TSH levels and concentrations of very low-density lipoprotein subclasses and components, triglycerides, and triglyceride content of lipoproteins were directionally consistent across the multivariable regression, MR, metabolomic platforms, and for individuals with hypo- and hyperthyroidism. Associations with fT4 levels inversely reflected those observed with TSH. Among 91,810 CAD cases and 656,091 controls of European ancestry, per 1-SD increase of genetically determined TSH concentration risk of CAD increased slightly, but not significantly, with an OR of 1.03 (95% CI 0.99–1.07; p value 0.16), whereas higher genetically determined fT4 levels were not associated with CAD risk (OR 1.00 per SD increase of fT4; 95% CI 0.96–1.04;
Elliott P, Haw D, Wang H, et al., 2021, Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine effectiveness associated with Delta variant, Science, Vol: 374, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 0036-8075
SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.
Chadeau-Hyam M, Wang H, Eales O, et al., 2021, REACT-1 study round 14: High and increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among school-aged children during September 2021 and vaccine effectiveness against infection in England
Background: England experienced a third wave of the COVID-19 epidemic from end May2021 coinciding with the rapid spread of Delta variant. Since then, the population eligible forvaccination against COVID-19 has been extended to include all 12-15-year-olds, and abooster programme has been initiated among adults aged 50 years and over, health careand care home workers, and immunocompromised people. Meanwhile, schoolchildren havereturned to school often with few COVID-19-related precautions in place.Methods: In the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study,throat and nose swabs were sent to non-overlapping random samples of the populationaged 5 years and over in England. We analysed prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 using reversetranscription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) swab-positivity data from REACT-1 round14 (between 9 and 27 September 2021). We combined results for round 14 with round 13(between 24 June and 12 July 2021) and estimated vaccine effectiveness and prevalence ofswab-positivity among double-vaccinated individuals. Unlike all previous rounds, in round 14,we switched from dry swabs transported by courier on a cold chain to wet swabs usingsaline. Also, at random, 50% of swabs (not chilled until they reached the depot) weretransported by courier and 50% were sent through the priority COVID-19 postal service.Results: We observed stable or rising prevalence (with an R of 1.03 (0.94, 1.14) overall)during round 14 with a weighted prevalence of 0.83% (0.76%, 0.89%). The highest weightedprevalence was found in children aged 5 to 12 years at 2.32% (1.96%, 2.73%) and 13 to 17years at 2.55% (2.11%, 3.08%). All positive virus samples analysed correspond to the Deltavariant or sub-lineages of Delta with one instance of the E484K escape mutation detected.The epidemic was growing in those aged 17 years and under with an R of 1.18 (1.03, 1.34),but decreasing in those aged 18 to 54 years with an R of 0.81 (0.68, 0.97). For allparticipants and all vaccin
Al-Jafar R, Zografou Themeli M, Zaman S, et al., 2021, Effect of religious fasting in Ramadan on blood pressure: results from LORANS (London Ramadan Study) and a meta-analysis., Journal of the American Heart Association, Vol: 10, Pages: 1-36, ISSN: 2047-9980
Background Ramadan fasting is practiced by hundreds of millions every year. This ritual practice changes diet and lifestyle dramatically; thus, the effect of Ramadan fasting on blood pressure must be determined. Methods and Results LORANS (London Ramadan Study) is an observational study, systematic review, and meta-analysis. In LORANS, we measured systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of 85 participants before and right after Ramadan. In the systematic review, studies were retrieved from PubMed, Embase, and Scopus from inception to March 3, 2020. We meta-analyzed the effect from these studies and unpublished data from LORANS. We included observational studies that measured SBP and/or DBP before Ramadan and during the last 2 weeks of Ramadan or the first 2 weeks of the month after. Data appraisal and extraction were conducted by at least 2 reviewers in parallel. We pooled SBP and DBP using a random-effects model. The systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews; CRD42019159477). In LORANS, 85 participants were recruited; mean age was 45.6±15.9 years, and 52.9% (n=45) of participants were men. SBP and DBP after Ramadan fasting were lower by 7.29 mm Hg (-4.74 to -9.84) and 3.42 mm Hg (-1.73 to -5.09), even after adjustment for potential confounders. We identified 2778 studies of which 33 with 3213 participants were included. SBP and DBP after/before Ramadan were lower by 3.19 mm Hg (-4.43 to -1.96, I2=48%) and 2.26 mm Hg (-3.19 to -1.34, I2=66%), respectively. In subgroup analyses, lower blood pressures were observed in the groups who are healthy or have hypertension or diabetes but not in patients with chronic kidney disease. Conclusions Our study suggests beneficial effects of Ramadan fasting on blood pressure independent of changes in weight, total body water, and fat mass and supports recommendations for some government
Davies B, Araghi M, Moshe M, et al., 2021, Acceptability, usability and performance of lateral flow immunoassay tests for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: REACT-2 study of self-testing in non-healthcare key workers, Open Forum Infectious Diseases, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2328-8957
Background Seroprevalence studies are essential to understand the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Various technologies, including laboratory assays and point-of-care self-tests, are available for antibody testing. The interpretation of seroprevalence studies requires comparative data on the performance of antibody tests. Methods In June 2020, current and former members of the UK Police forces and Fire service performed a self-test lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA), had a nurse-performed LFIA and provided a venous blood sample for ELISA . We present the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2; the acceptability and usability of self-test LFIAs; and determine the sensitivity and specificity of LFIAs compared to laboratory ELISA. Results In this cohort of 5189 current and former members of the Police service and 263 members of the Fire service, 7.4% (396/5,348; 95% CI, 6.7-8.1) were antibody positive. Seroprevalence was 8.9% (6.9-11.4) in those under 40 years, 11.5% (8.8-15.0) in those of non-white ethnicity and 7.8% (7.1-8.7) in those currently working. Self-test LFIA had an acceptability of 97.7% and a usability of 90.0%. There was substantial agreement between within-participant LFIA results (kappa 0.80; 0.77-0.83). The LFIAs had a similar performance: compared to ELISA, sensitivity was 82.1% (77.7-86.0) self-test and 76.4% (71.9-80.5) nurse-performed with specificity of 97.8% (97.3-98.2) and 98.5% (98.1-98.8) respectively. Conclusion A greater proportion of this non-healthcare key worker cohort showed evidence of previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 than the general population at 6.0% (5.8-6.1) following the first wave in England. The high acceptability and usability reported by participants and similar performance of self-test and nurse-performed LFIAs indicate that the self-test LFIA is fit for purpose for home-testing in occupational and community prevalence studies.
Elliott J, Whitaker M, Bodinier B, et al., 2021, Predictive symptoms for COVID-19 in the community: REACT-1 study of over one million people, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 18, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 1549-1277
Background:Rapid detection, isolation and contact tracing of community COVID-19 cases are essential measures to limit the community spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We aimed to identify a parsimonious set of symptoms that jointly predict COVID-19 and whether predictive symptoms differ between B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage (predominating as of April 2021in the USA, UK and elsewhere) and wild type.Methods and Findings:We obtained throat and nose swabs with valid SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results from 1,147,370 volunteers aged 5 years and above (6,450 positives) in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. This involved repeated community-based random surveys of prevalence in England (study rounds 2 to 8, June 2020 to January 2021, response rates 22%-27%). Participants were asked about symptoms occurring in the week prior to testing. Viral genome sequencing was carried out for PCR positive samples with N-gene cycle threshold value < 34 (N = 1,079) in round 8 (January 2021). In univariate analysis, all 26 surveyed symptoms were associated with PCR positivity compared with non-symptomatic people. Stability selection (1,000 penalized logistic regression models with 50% subsampling) among people reporting at least one symptom identified seven symptoms as jointly and positively predictive of PCR positivity in rounds 2–7 (June to December 2020): loss or change of sense of smell, loss or change of sense of taste, fever, new persistent cough, chills, appetite loss and muscle aches. The resulting model (rounds 2–7) predicted PCR positivity in round 8 with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77. The same seven symptoms were selected as jointly predictive of B.1.1.7 infection in round 8, although comparing B.1.1.7 with wild type, new persistent cough and sore throat were more predictive of B.1.1.7 infection while loss or change of sense of smell was more predictive of the wild type. Main
Neal B, Wu Y, Feng X, et al., 2021, Effect of salt substitution on cardiovascular events and death, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol: 385, Pages: 1067-1077, ISSN: 0028-4793
BACKGROUNDSalt substitutes with reduced sodium levels and increased potassium levels have been shown to lower blood pressure, but their effects on cardiovascular and safety outcomes are uncertain.METHODS We conducted an open-label, cluster-randomized trial involving persons from 600 villages in rural China. The participants had a history of stroke or were 60 years of age or older and had high blood pressure. The villages were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to the intervention group, in which the participants used a salt substitute (75% sodium chloride and 25% potassium chloride by mass), or to the control group, in which the participants continued to use regular salt (100% sodium chloride). The primary outcome was stroke, the secondary outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events and death from any cause, and the safety outcome was clinical hyperkalemia.RESULTSA total of 20,995 persons were enrolled in the trial. The mean age of the participants was 65.4 years, and 49.5% were female, 72.6% had a history of stroke, and 88.4% a history of hypertension. The mean duration of follow-up was 4.74 years. The rate of stroke was lower with the salt substitute than with regular salt (29.14 events vs. 33.65 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77 to 0.96; P=0.006), as were the rates of major cardiovascular events (49.09 events vs. 56.29 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.94; P<0.001) and death (39.28 events vs. 44.61 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.95; P<0.001). The rate of serious adverse events attributed to hyperkalemia was not significantly higher with the salt substitute than with regular salt (3.35 events vs. 3.30 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.80 to 1.37; P=0.76).CONCLUSIONSAmong persons who had a history of stroke or were 60 years of age or older and had high blood pressure, the rates of stroke, major cardiovascular events
Francis CM, Futschik ME, Huang J, et al., 2021, GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATIONS OF AORTIC DISTENSIBILITY SUGGEST CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS WITH AORTIC ANEURYSMS AND BRAIN WHITE MATTER HYPERINTENSITIES
<jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:p>Aortic dimensions and distensibility are key risk factors for aortic aneurysms and dissections, as well as for other cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. We tested genome-wide associations of ascending and descending aortic distensibility and area derived from cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data of up to 32,590 Caucasian individuals in UK Biobank. We identified 102 loci (including 31 novel associations) tagging genes related to cardiovascular development, extracellular matrix production, smooth muscle cell contraction and heritable aortic diseases. Functional analyses highlighted four signalling pathways associated with aortic distensibility (TGF-β, IGF, VEGF and PDGF). We identified distinct sex-specific associations with aortic traits. We developed co-expression networks associated with aortic traits and applied phenome-wide Mendelian randomization (MR-PheWAS), generating evidence for a causal role for aortic distensibility in development of aortic aneurysms. Multivariable MR suggested a causal relationship between aortic distensibility and cerebral white matter hyperintensities, mechanistically linking aortic traits and brain small vessel disease.</jats:p>
Pan X-F, Yang JJ, Shu X-O, et al., 2021, Associations of circulating choline and its related metabolites with cardiometabolic biomarkers: an international pooled analysis, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, Vol: 114, Pages: 893-906, ISSN: 0002-9165
BACKGROUND: Choline is an essential nutrient; however, the associations of choline and its related metabolites with cardiometabolic risk remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: We examined the associations of circulating choline, betaine, carnitine, and dimethylglycine (DMG) with cardiometabolic biomarkers and their potential dietary and nondietary determinants. METHODS: The cross-sectional analyses included 32,853 participants from 17 studies, who were free of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney diseases, and inflammatory bowel disease. In each study, metabolites and biomarkers were log-transformed and standardized by means and SDs, and linear regression coefficients (β) and 95% CIs were estimated with adjustments for potential confounders. Study-specific results were combined by random-effects meta-analyses. A false discovery rate <0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS: We observed moderate positive associations of circulating choline, carnitine, and DMG with creatinine [β (95% CI): 0.136 (0.084, 0.188), 0.106 (0.045, 0.168), and 0.128 (0.087, 0.169), respectively, for each SD increase in biomarkers on the log scale], carnitine with triglycerides (β = 0.076; 95% CI: 0.042, 0.109), homocysteine (β = 0.064; 95% CI: 0.033, 0.095), and LDL cholesterol (β = 0.055; 95% CI: 0.013, 0.096), DMG with homocysteine (β = 0.068; 95% CI: 0.023, 0.114), insulin (β = 0.068; 95% CI: 0.043, 0.093), and IL-6 (β = 0.060; 95% CI: 0.027, 0.094), but moderate inverse associations of betaine with triglycerides (β = -0.146; 95% CI: -0.188, -0.104), insulin (β = -0.106; 95% CI: -0.130, -0.082), homocysteine (β = -0.097; 95% CI: -0.149, -0.045), and total cholesterol (β = -0.074; 95% CI: -0.102, -0.047). In the whole pooled population, no dietary factor was associated with circulating choline; red meat intake was associated with circulating carnitine [β = 0.092 (0.042, 0.142) for a 1 serving/d increase], whereas plant prot
Mina T, Lee ES, Lee J, et al., 2021, The Role of Visceral Adiposity in the Metabolic Phenotype of multi-ethnic South-East Asian population, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, ISSN: 0300-5771
Eales O, Walters C, Wang H, et al., 2021, Characterising the persistence of RT-PCR positivity and incidence in a community survey of SARS-CoV-2
BackgroundCommunity surveys of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR swab-positivity provide prevalence estimates largely unaffected by biases from who presents for routine case testing. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) has estimated swab-positivity approximately monthly since May 2020 in England from RT-PCR testing of self-administeredthroat and nose swabs in random non-overlapping cross-sectional community samples. Estimating infection incidence from swab-positivity requires an understanding of the persistence of RT-PCR swab positivity in the community.MethodsDuring round 8 of REACT-1 from 6 January to 22 January 2021, of the 2,282 participants who tested RT-PCR positive, we recruited 896 (39%) from whom we collected up to two additional swabs for RT-PCR approximately 6 and 9 days after the initial swab. We estimated sensitivity and duration of positivity using an exponential model of positivity decay, for all participants and for subsets by initial N-gene cycle threshold (Ct) value, symptom status, lineage and age. Estimates of infection incidence were obtained for the entire duration of the REACT-1 study using P-splines.ResultsWe estimated the overall sensitivity of REACT-1 to detect virus on a single swab as 0.79 (0.77, 0.81) and median duration of positivity following a positive test as 9.7 (8.9, 10.6) days. We found greater median duration of positivity where there was a low N-gene Ct value, in those exhibiting symptoms, or for infection with the Alpha variant. The estimated proportionof positive individuals detected on first swab, was found to be higher 𝑃 for those with an 0 initially low N-gene Ct value and those who were pre-symptomatic. When compared to swab-positivity, estimates of infection incidence over the duration of REACT-1 included sharper features with evident transient increases around the time of key changes in socialdistancing measures.DiscussionHome self-swabbing for RT-PCR based on a single swab, as implemented in REACT-1, has hig
Wielscher M, Mandaviya P, Kuehnel B, et al., 2021, DNA methylation signature of chronic low-grade inflammation and its role in cardio-respiratory diseases
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>We performed a trans-ethnic Epigenome Wide Association study on 22,774 individuals to describe the DNA methylation signature of chronic low-grade inflammation as measured by C-Reactive protein (CRP). We found 1,511 independent differentially methylated loci associated with CRP. These CpG sites showed correlation structures across chromosomes, and were primarily situated in euchromatin, depleted in CpG islands and enriched in transcription factor binding sites and genomic enhancer regions. Mendelian randomisation analysis suggests altered CpG methylation is a consequence of increased blood CRP levels. Mediation analysis revealed obesity and smoking as important underlying driving factors for changed CpG methylation. Finally, we found that a fully activated CpG signature, meaning that if all novel discovered CpGs would either be fully methylated or unmethylated depending on their CRP associated direction of effect, the risk of myocardial infarction would be increased by 20.3%, risk of T2D by 11.3% and the risk of COPD by 5.6%.</jats:p>
Redd R, Cooper E, Atchison C, et al., 2021, Behavioural responses to SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing in England: REACT-2 study, Wellcome Open Research, Vol: 6, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 2398-502X
Background: This study assesses the behavioural responses to SARS-CoV-2 antibody test results as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-2 (REACT-2) research programme, a large community-based surveillance study of antibody prevalence in England.Methods: A follow-up survey was conducted six weeks after the SARS-CoV-2 antibody test. The follow-up survey included 4500 people with a positive result and 4039 with a negative result. Reported changes in behaviour were assessed using difference-in-differences models. A nested interview study was conducted with 40 people to explore how they thought through their behavioural decisions.Results: While respondents reduced their protective behaviours over the six weeks, we did not find evidence that positive test results changed participant behaviour trajectories in relation to the number of contacts the respondents had, for leaving the house to go to work, or for leaving the house to socialise in a personal place. The qualitative findings supported these results. Most people did not think that they had changed their behaviours because of their test results, however they did allude to some changes in their attitudes and perceptions around risk, susceptibility, and potential severity of symptoms.Conclusions: We found limited evidence that knowing your antibody status leads to behaviour change in the context of a research study. While this finding should not be generalised to widespread self-testing in other contexts, it is reassuring given the importance of large prevalence studies, and the practicalities of doing these at scale using self-testing with lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA).
Elliott P, Haw D, Wang H, et al., 2021, REACT-1 round 13 final report: exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine effectiveness associated with Delta variant in England during May to July 2021
BackgroundThe prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection continues to drive rates of illness andhospitalisations despite high levels of vaccination, with the proportion of cases caused by theDelta lineage increasing in many populations. As vaccination programs roll out globally andsocial distancing is relaxed, future SARS-CoV-2 trends are uncertain.MethodsWe analysed prevalence trends and their drivers using reverse transcription-polymerasechain reaction (RT-PCR) swab-positivity data from round 12 (between 20 May and 7 June2021) and round 13 (between 24 June and 12 July 2021) of the REal-time Assessment ofCommunity Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, with swabs sent to non-overlapping randomsamples of the population ages 5 years and over in England.ResultsWe observed sustained exponential growth with an average doubling time in round 13 of 25days (lower Credible Interval of 15 days) and an increase in average prevalence from 0.15%(0.12%, 0.18%) in round 12 to 0.63% (0.57%, 0.18%) in round 13. The rapid growth acrossand within rounds appears to have been driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant byDelta, and by the high prevalence in younger less-vaccinated age groups, with a nine-foldincrease between rounds 12 and 13 among those aged 13 to 17 years. Prevalence amongthose who reported being unvaccinated was three-fold higher than those who reported beingfully vaccinated. However, in round 13, 44% of infections occurred in fully vaccinatedindividuals, reflecting imperfect vaccine effectiveness against infection despite high overalllevels of vaccination. Using self-reported vaccination status, we estimated adjusted vaccineeffectiveness against infection in round 13 of 49% (22%, 67%) among participants aged 18to 64 years, which rose to 58% (33%, 73%) when considering only strong positives (Cyclethreshold [Ct] values < 27); also, we estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness againstsymptomatic infection of 59% (23%, 78%), with any one of three common COVID-19symptoms reported
Vu T-HT, Van Horn L, Daviglus ML, et al., 2021, Association between egg intake and blood pressure in the USA: the INTERnational study on MAcro/micronutrients and blood Pressure (INTERMAP)., Public Health Nutrition, Vol: 24, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 1368-9800
OBJECTIVES: To investigate associations of egg intake with blood pressure (BP) and the role of dietary variables and other macro- and micro-nutrients in the association. DESIGN: We used cross-sectional data for the USA as part of the INTERnational study on MAcro/micronutrients and blood Pressure (INTERMAP). INTERMAP was surveyed between 1996 and 1999, including four 24-h dietary recalls, two 24-h urine collections and eight measurements of systolic BP and diastolic BP (SBP, DBP). Average egg intake (g/d) was calculated. Multivariable linear regression models were used to estimate the association between egg intake (per each 50 g/d or per quintile) and BP. The roles of dietary variables and other macro- and micro-nutrients in this association were also investigated. SETTING: In the USA. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 2195 US INTERMAP men and women aged 40-59 years. RESULTS: Participants were 50 % female, 54 % non-Hispanic White and 16 % non-Hispanic Black. Mean egg intake (sd) in men and women was 30·4(29·8) and 21·6(20·5) g/d, respectively. Adjusting for demographics, socio-economics, lifestyle and urinary Na:K excretion ratios, we found non-linear associations with BP in non-obese women (P-quadratic terms: 0·004 for SBP and 0·035 for DBP).The associations remained after adjusting for dietary variables, macro/micro nutrients or minerals. Dietary cholesterol was highly correlated with egg intake and may factor in the association. No association was found in obese women and in obese or non-obese men. CONCLUSION: Egg intake was non-linearly associated with SBP and DBP in non-obese women, but not in obese women or men. Underlying mechanisms require additional study regarding the role of obesity and sex.
Van Vliet NA, Bos MM, Thesing CS, et al., 2021, HIGHER THYROID STIMULATING HORMONE LEADS TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE AND AN UNFAVORABLE LIPID PROFILE: EVIDENCE FROM MULTI-COHORT MENDELIAN RANDOMIZATION AND METABOLOMIC PROFILING, Publisher: ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD, Pages: E40-E40, ISSN: 0021-9150
Ward H, Atchison C, Whitaker M, et al., 2021, Increasing SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in England at the start of the second wave: REACT-2 Round 4 cross-sectional study in 160,000 adults
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>REACT-2 Study 5 is a population survey of the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the community in England.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We contacted a random sample of the population by sending a letter to named individuals aged 18 or over from the NHS GP registrations list. We then sent respondents a lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) kit for SARS-CoV-2 antibody self-testing and asked them to perform the test at home and complete a questionnaire, including reporting of their test result. Overall, 161,537 adults completed questionnaires and self-administered LFIA tests for IgG against SARS-CoV-2 between 27 October and 10 November 2020.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>The overall adjusted and weighted prevalence was 5.6% (95% CI 5.4-5.7). This was an increase from 4.4% (4.3-4.5) in round 3 (September), a relative increase of 26.9% (24.0-29.9).The largest increase by age was in the 18 to 24 year old age group, which increased (adjusted and weighted) from 6.7% (6.3-7.2) to 9.9% (9.3-10.4), and in students, (adjusted, unweighted) from 5.9% (4.8-7.1) to 12.1% (10.8-13.5). Prevalence increased most in Yorkshire and The Humber, from 3.4% (3.0-3.8) to 6.3% (5.9-6.8) and the North West from 4.5% (4.2-4.9) to 7.7% (7.2-8.1). In contrast, the prevalence in London was stable, at 9.5% (9.0-9.9) and 9.5% (9.1-10.0) in rounds 3 and 4 respectively. We found the highest prevalence in people of Bangladeshi 15.1% (10.9-20.5), Pakistani 13.9% (11.2-17.2) and African 13.5% (10.7-16.8) ethnicity, and lowest in those of white British ethnicity at 4.2% (4.0-4.3).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Interpretation</jats:title><jats:p>The second wave of infection in England is apparen
Li Z, Feng X, Wu T, et al., 2021, Randomised trial on effect of involving media reporters in salt reduction programme to increase media reports and the public's knowledge, belief and behaviors on salt and health: Changzhi reporters trial., PLoS One, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1932-6203
OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of a novel mass media intervention in increasing media reports on salt and health by involving media reporters in a scientifically well designed salt reduction trial. METHODS: We recruited and trained 66 media reporters in Changzhi, Shanxi province, China to conduct a randomized controlled trial on blood pressure lowering effect of salt substitute in Dec, 2012 and Jan 2013 among their own relatives or friends (253 from 129 families in the salt substitute arm and 263 from 133 families in the control arm for two months). We shared trial results and other information on salt and health with the reporters within a month after the trial. We monitored all local newspapers for the number of relevant articles in 3 months before, 3 months during and 3 months after the intervention and at the 6th, 12th, 18th, 24th and 48th months after the intervention. Additionally, we conducted two independent surveys on knowledge, belief and behaviours of salt and health among local citizens before and after the intervention. RESULTS: As expected, systolic blood pressure was reduced significantly more in the salt substitute than the control group (-4.7±11.0 mmHg vs -2.6±10.3 mmHg, p<0.001) in the randomized trial. The monthly mean number of relevant articles increased from 0.7 before to 1.7 during (p = 0.263), and further to 6.0 after the intervention (p<0.001), and varied from 2 (p = 0.170) to 4 (p = 0.008) from the 6th to 48th month; the awareness of knowledge on salt and health among local citizens improved significantly after the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Media reporters' participation in a well-designed salt reduction trial significantly increased the number of relevant media reports, and the effect was sustained for a prolonged period. Future mass media public health education programs should consider this innovative strategy for better and sustained impacts.
Li K-C, Tian M, Neal B, et al., 2021, Protocol for the economic evaluation of the China Salt Substitute and Stroke Study (SSaSS)., BMJ Open, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-4, ISSN: 2044-6055
INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce blood pressure and the burden of CVD. To date, economic evidence has focused on sodium reduction in food industry or processed food with blood pressure as the primary outcome. This study protocol describes the planned within-trial economic evaluation of a low-sodium salt substitute intervention designed to reduce the risk of stroke in China. METHODS AND ANALYSES: The economic evaluation will be conducted alongside the Salt Substitute and Stroke Study: a 5-year large scale, cluster randomised controlled trial. The outcomes of interest are quality of life measured using the EuroQol-5-Dimensions and major adverse cardiovascular events. Costs will be estimated from a healthcare system perspective and will be sought from the routinely collected data available within the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme. Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses will be conducted, resulting in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio expressed as cost per cardiovascular event averted and cost per quality-adjusted life year gained, respectively. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial received ethics approval from the University of Sydney Ethics Committee (2013/888) and Peking University Institutional Review Board (IRB00001052-13069). Informed consent was obtained from each study participant. Findings of the economic evaluation will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT02092090).
Al-Jafar R, Elliott P, Tsilidis KK, et al., 2021, London Ramadan Fasting Study (LORANS): Rationale, design, and methods
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Hundreds of millions of Muslims fast during the month of Ramadan. The London Ramadan Fasting Study (LORANS) aims to assess the lifestyle changes during this month and investigate the effect of Ramadan fasting on health.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>LORANS is an observational study of participants that follow religious fasting in Ramadan. We advertised, recruited, and visited participants in five mosques in London, United Kingdom. In total, 146 individuals were recruited before Ramadan in May 2019 of which 85 participated in the follow up visit after Ramadan. The study protocol was approved by the ethics committee affiliated to Imperial College London. A written informed consent was signed by all the participants. Every participant completed a questionnaire, a physical examination, and gave blood samples at each visit. Moreover, they completed a 3-day food diary before Ramadan and once again during Ramadan to record dietary changes during the month of fasting.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>The mean age of participants was 45.6± 15.9 years. 47.1% of the participants were females, 25.5% were obese, 4.7% were smokers, 14% were diabetic, 24% were hypertensive, and 5.2% had cardiovascular diseases. Data collection covered demographics, lifestyle, food intake, blood pressure, anthropometric measurements, body composition, and metabolic biomarker profiling.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion</jats:title><jats:p>By engaging with mosques, proper introduction of the study aims and convenient recruitment in the mosque, we were able to recruit a balanced population regarding age and sex and collected valuable data on Ramadan fasting using high-quality
Cann A, Clarke C, Brown J, et al., 2021, SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Lateral Flow Assay for antibody prevalence studies following vaccine roll out: a Diagnostic Accuracy Study
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Lateral flow immunoassays (LFIAs) have the potential to deliver affordable, large scale antibody testing and provide rapid results without the support of central laboratories. As part of the development of the REACT programme extensive evaluation of LFIA performance was undertaken with individuals following natural infection. Here we assess the performance of the selected LFIA to detect antibody responses in individuals who have received at least one dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>This is a prospective diagnostic accuracy study.</jats:p><jats:sec><jats:title>Setting</jats:title><jats:p>Sampling was carried out at renal outpatient clinic and healthcare worker testing sites at Imperial College London NHS Trust. Laboratory analyses were performed across Imperial College London sites and university facilities.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Participants</jats:title><jats:p>Two cohorts of patients were recruited; the first was a cohort of 108 renal transplant patients attending clinic following SARS-CoV-2 vaccine booster, the second cohort comprised 40 healthcare workers attending for first SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, and 21 day follow up. A total of 186 paired samples were collected.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Interventions</jats:title><jats:p>During the participants visit, capillary blood samples were analysed on LFIA device, while paired venous sampling was sent for serological assessment of antibodies to the spike protein (anti-S) antibodies. Anti-S IgG were detected using the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG Quant II CMIA.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Main outcome measures</jats:title>&
Ward H, Whitaker M, Tang SN, et al., 2021, Vaccine uptake and SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence among 207,337 adults during May 2021 in England: REACT-2 study
Background The programme to vaccinate adults in England has been rapidly implementedsince it began in December 2020. The community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 anti-spikeprotein antibodies provides an estimate of total cumulative response to natural infection andvaccination. We describe the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in adults inEngland in May 2021 at a time when approximately 7 in 10 adults had received at least onedose of vaccine.Methods Sixth round of REACT-2 (REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-2),a cross-sectional random community survey of adults in England, from 12 to 25 May 2021;207,337 participants completed questionnaires and self-administered a lateral flowimmunoassay test producing a positive or negative result.Results Vaccine coverage with one or more doses, weighted to the adult population inEngland, was 72.9% (95% confidence interval 72.7-73.0), varying by age from 25.1% (24.5-25.6) of those aged 18 to 24 years, to 99.2% (99.1-99.3) of those 75 years and older. Inadjusted models, odds of vaccination were lower in men (odds ratio [OR] 0.89 [0.85-0.94])than women, and in people of Black (0.41 [0.34-0.49]) compared to white ethnicity. Therewas higher vaccine coverage in the least deprived and highest income households. Peoplewho reported a history of COVID-19 were less likely to be vaccinated (OR 0.61 [0.55-0.67]).There was high coverage among health workers (OR 9.84 [8.79-11.02] and care workers (OR4.17 [3.20-5.43]) compared to non-key workers, but lower in hospitality and retail workers(OR 0.73 [0.64-0.82] and 0.77 [0.70-0.85] respectively) after adjusting for age and keycovariates.
Riley S, Eales O, Haw D, et al., 2021, REACT-1 round 13 interim report: acceleration of SARS-CoV-2 Delta epidemic in the community in England during late June and early July 2021
BackgroundDespite high levels of vaccination in the adult population, cases of COVID-19 have risenexponentially in England since the start of May 2021 driven by the Delta variant. However,with far fewer hospitalisations and deaths per case during the recent growth in casescompared with 2020, it is intended that all remaining social distancing legislation in Englandwill be removed from 19 July 2021.MethodsWe report interim results from round 13 of the REal-time Assessment of CommunityTransmission-1 (REACT-1) study in which a cross-sectional sample of the population ofEngland was asked to provide a throat and nose swab for RT-PCR and to answer aquestionnaire. Data collection for this report (round 13 interim) was from 24 June to 5 July2021.ResultsIn round 13 interim, we found 237 positives from 47,729 swabs giving a weighted prevalenceof 0.59% (0.51%, 0.68%) which was approximately four-fold higher compared with round 12at 0.15% (0.12%, 0.18%). This resulted from continued exponential growth in prevalencewith an average doubling time of 15 (13, 17) days between round 12 and round 13.However, during the recent period of round 13 interim only, we observed a shorter doublingtime of 6.1 (4.0, 12) days with a corresponding R number of 1.87 (1.40, 2.45). There weresubstantial increases in all age groups under the age of 75 years, and especially at youngerages, with the highest prevalence in 13 to 17 year olds at 1.33% (0.97%, 1.82%) and in 18 to24 years olds at 1.40% (0.89%, 2.18%). Infections have increased in all regions with thelargest increase in London where prevalence increased more than eight-fold from 0.13%(0.08%, 0.20%) in round 12 to 1.08% (0.79%, 1.47%) in round 13 interim. Overall,prevalence was over 3 times higher in the unvaccinated compared with those reporting twodoses of vaccine in both round 12 and round 13 interim, although there was a similarproportional increase in prevalence in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals between thetwo rounds.DiscussionWe
Shen C, Dumontheil I, Thomas M, et al., 2021, Digital technology use and BMI: evidence from a cross-sectional analysis of an adolescent cohort study, Journal of Medical Internet Research, Vol: 23, Pages: 1-16, ISSN: 1438-8871
Background:The use of digital technology such as mobile phones is ubiquitous in adolescents. However, excessive use may have adverse health effects, possibly partially mediated by disruptions to sleep.Objective:This study aims to assess the social predictors of digital technology use and their cross-sectional association with BMI z scores and being overweight in a large sample of adolescents.Methods:We used baseline data from a subset of a large adolescent cohort from 39 schools across Greater London who participated in the Study of Cognition, Adolescents and Mobile Phones (n=1473). Digital technology use included phone calls, internet use on mobile phones, and video gaming on any device. Multilevel regression was used to assess the associations between digital technology use and age-specific and sex-specific BMI z scores and being overweight (including obesity). Measurements were derived from height and weight, obtained by the Tanita BC-418 Body Composition Analyzer. We examined whether these associations were mediated by insufficient sleep.Results:Generally, participants with lower socioeconomic status reported more use of digital technology. Controlling for socioeconomic status, internet use on mobile phones for more than 3 hours per day was associated with higher BMI z scores (adjusted β=.30, 95% CI 0.11-0.48) and greater odds of being overweight (adjusted odds ratio 1.60, 95% CI 1.09-2.34), compared with low use (≤30 minutes). Similar associations were found between video gaming and BMI z scores and being overweight. The BMI z score was more strongly related to weekday digital technology use (internet use on mobile phones and video gaming) than weekend use. Insufficient sleep partly mediated the associations between digital technology use and BMI z scores (proportion of mediation from 8.6% to 17.8%) by an indirect effect.Conclusions:We found an association between digital technology use and BMI in adolescents, partly mediated by insufficient sleep, sugg
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