Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorPaulElliott

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Chair in Epidemiology and Public Health Medicine
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3328p.elliott Website

 
 
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Assistant

 

Miss Jennifer Wells +44 (0)20 7594 3328

 
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Location

 

154Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Riley:2020:10.1101/2020.09.30.20204727,
author = {Riley, S and Ainslie, KEC and Eales, O and Walters, CE and Wang, H and Atchison, C and Fronterre, C and Diggle, PJ and Ashby, D and Donnelly, CA and Cooke, G and Barclay, W and Ward, H and Darzi, A and Elliott, P},
doi = {10.1101/2020.09.30.20204727},
publisher = {Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press},
title = {High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity in England during September 2020: interim report of round 5 of REACT-1 study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.30.20204727},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - Background REACT-1 is a community survey of PCR confirmed swab-positivity for SARS-CoV-2 among random samples of the population in England. This interim report includes data from the fifth round of data collection currently underway for swabs sampled from the 18th to 26th September 2020.Methods Repeated cross-sectional surveys of random samples of the population aged 5 years and over in England with sample size ranging from 120,000 to 160,000 people in each round of data collection. Collection of self-administered nose and throat swab for PCR and questionnaire data. Prevalence of swab-positivity by round and by demographic variables including age, sex, region, ethnicity. Estimation of reproduction number (R) between and within rounds, and time trends using exponential growth or decay model. Assessment of geographical clustering based on boundary-free spatial model.Results Over the 9 days for which data are available, we find 363 positives from 84,610 samples giving a weighted prevalence to date of 0.55% (0.47%, 0.64%) in round 5. This implies that 411,000 (351,000, 478,000) people in England are virus-positive under the assumption that the swab assay is 75% sensitive. Using data from the most recent two rounds, we estimate a doubling time of 10.6 (9.4, 12.0) days covering the period 20th August to 26th September, corresponding to a reproduction number R of 1.47 (1.40, 1.53). Using data only from round 5 we estimate a reproduction number of 1.06 (0.74, 1.46) with probability of 63% that R is greater than 1. Between rounds 4 and 5 there was a marked increase in unweighted prevalence at all ages. In the most recent data, prevalence was highest in the 18 to 24 yrs age group at 0.96% (0.68%, 1.36%). At 65+ yrs prevalence increased  7-fold between rounds 4 and 5 from 0.04% (0.03%, 0.07%) to 0.29% (0.23%, 0.37%). Prevalence increased in all regions between rounds 4 and 5, giving the highest unweighted prevalence in round 5 in the North West at 0.86% (0.69%, 1.06%). In Lond
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Ainslie,KEC
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Walters,CE
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Atchison,C
AU  - Fronterre,C
AU  - Diggle,PJ
AU  - Ashby,D
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Barclay,W
AU  - Ward,H
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Elliott,P
DO  - 10.1101/2020.09.30.20204727
PB  - Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
PY  - 2020///
TI  - High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity in England during September 2020: interim report of round 5 of REACT-1 study
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.30.20204727
UR  - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/early/2020/10/02/2020.09.30.20204727
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/83691
ER  -
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