Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

DrPennyHancock

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Lecturer in Biostatistics / Epidemiology (Non Clinical)
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

p.hancock

 
 
//

Location

 

St Marys Multiple BuildingsSt Mary's Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Adib:2021:10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005207,
author = {Adib, K and Hancock, PA and Rahimli, A and Mugisa, B and Abdulrazeq, F and Aguas, R and White, LJ and Hajjeh, R and Al, Ariqi L and Nabeth, P},
doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005207},
journal = {BMJ Global Health},
pages = {1--7},
title = {A participatory modelling approach for investigating the spread of COVID-19 in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region to support public health decision-making},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005207},
volume = {6},
year = {2021}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:p>Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office recognised the importance of epidemiological modelling to forecast the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic to support decisions guiding the implementation of response measures. We established a modelling support team to facilitate the application of epidemiological modelling analyses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries. Here, we present an innovative, stepwise approach to participatory modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic that engaged decision-makers and public health professionals from countries throughout all stages of the modelling process. Our approach consisted of first identifying the relevant policy questions, collecting country-specific data and interpreting model findings from a decision-maker’s perspective, as well as communicating model uncertainty. We used a simple modelling methodology that was adaptable to the shortage of epidemiological data, and the limited modelling capacity, in our region. We discuss the benefits of using models to produce rapid decision-making guidance for COVID-19 control in the WHO EMR, as well as challenges that we have experienced regarding conveying uncertainty associated with model results, synthesising and comparing results across multiple modelling approaches, and modelling fragile and conflict-affected states.</jats:p>
AU  - Adib,K
AU  - Hancock,PA
AU  - Rahimli,A
AU  - Mugisa,B
AU  - Abdulrazeq,F
AU  - Aguas,R
AU  - White,LJ
AU  - Hajjeh,R
AU  - Al,Ariqi L
AU  - Nabeth,P
DO  - 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005207
EP  - 7
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2059-7908
SP  - 1
TI  - A participatory modelling approach for investigating the spread of COVID-19 in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region to support public health decision-making
T2  - BMJ Global Health
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005207
UR  - https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/3/e005207
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/89432
VL  - 6
ER  -
Download