Imperial College London
Alternate

DrPierreNouvellet

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Visiting Reader
 
 
 
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p.nouvellet

 
 
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UG 11Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Djaafara:2021:10.1186/s12916-021-02016-2,
author = {Djaafara, A and Whittaker, C and Watson, OJ and Verity, R and Brazeau, N and Widyastuti and Oktavia, D and Adrian, V and Salama, N and Bhatia, S and Nouvellet, P and Sherrard-Smith, E and Churcher, T and Surendra, H and Lina, RN and Ekawati, LL and Lestari, KD and Andrianto, A and Thwaites, G and Baird, JK and Ghani, A and Elyazar, IRF and Walker, P},
doi = {10.1186/s12916-021-02016-2},
journal = {BMC Medicine},
title = {Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia in the context of vaccination roll-out},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-02016-2},
volume = {19},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background: As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods: We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine roll-out. Results: C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled-out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions: Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.
AU  - Djaafara,A
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Watson,OJ
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - Brazeau,N
AU  - Widyastuti
AU  - Oktavia,D
AU  - Adrian,V
AU  - Salama,N
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Nouvellet,P
AU  - Sherrard-Smith,E
AU  - Churcher,T
AU  - Surendra,H
AU  - Lina,RN
AU  - Ekawati,LL
AU  - Lestari,KD
AU  - Andrianto,A
AU  - Thwaites,G
AU  - Baird,JK
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Elyazar,IRF
AU  - Walker,P
DO  - 10.1186/s12916-021-02016-2
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1741-7015
TI  - Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia in the context of vaccination roll-out
T2  - BMC Medicine
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-02016-2
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/89153
VL  - 19
ER  -
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