Imperial College London
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DrPierreNouvellet

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Visiting Reader
 
 
 
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Contact

 

p.nouvellet

 
 
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Location

 

UG 11Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Bhatia:2021:rs.3.rs-799162/v1,
author = {Bhatia, S and Parag, K and Wardle, J and Imai, N and Elsland, SV and Lassmann, B and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Jauneikaite, E and Unwin, HJ and Riley, S and Ferguson, N and Donnelly, C and Cori, A and Nouvellet, P},
doi = {rs.3.rs-799162/v1},
title = {Global predictions of short- to medium-term COVID-19 transmission trends : a retrospective assessment},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-799162/v1},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title>        <jats:p>From 8th March to 29th November 2020, we produced weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for 81 countries with evidence of sustained transmission. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. We evaluated the robustness of the forecasts using relative error, coverage probability, and comparisons with null models. During the 39-week period covered by this study, both the short- and medium-term forecasts captured well the epidemic trajectory across different waves of COVID-19 infections with small relative errors over the forecast horizon. The model was well calibrated with 56.3\% and 45.6\% of the observations lying in the 50\% Credible Interval in 1-week and 4-week ahead forecasts respectively. We could accurately characterise the overall phase of the epidemic up to 4-weeks ahead in 84.9\% of country-days. The medium-term forecasts can be used in conjunction with the short-term forecasts of COVID-19 mortality as a useful planning tool as countries continue to relax public health measures.</jats:p>
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Parag,K
AU  - Wardle,J
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Elsland,SV
AU  - Lassmann,B
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Jauneikaite,E
AU  - Unwin,HJ
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Nouvellet,P
DO  - rs.3.rs-799162/v1
PY  - 2021///
TI  - Global predictions of short- to medium-term COVID-19 transmission trends : a retrospective assessment
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-799162/v1
ER  -
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