Imperial College London
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DrPierreNouvellet

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

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p.nouvellet

 
 
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UG 11Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Bracher:2021:10.1101/2021.11.05.21265810,
author = {Bracher, J and Wolffram, D and Deuschel, J and Görgen, K and Ketterer, JL and Ullrich, A and Abbott, S and Barbarossa, MV and Bertsimas, D and Bhatia, S and Bodych, M and Bosse, NI and Burgard, JP and Castro, L and Fairchild, G and Fiedler, J and Fuhrmann, J and Funk, S and Gambin, A and Gogolewski, K and Heyder, S and Hotz, T and Kheifetz, Y and Kirsten, H and Krueger, T and Krymova, E and Leithäuser, N and Li, ML and Meinke, JH and Miasojedow, B and Michaud, IJ and Mohring, J and Nouvellet, P and Nowosielski, JM and Ozanski, T and Radwan, M and Rakowski, F and Scholz, M and Soni, S and Srivastava, A and Gneiting, T and Schienle, M},
doi = {10.1101/2021.11.05.21265810},
title = {National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.05.21265810},
year = {2021}
}
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TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland. These were issued by 15 different forecasting models, run by independent research teams. Moreover, we study the performance of combined ensemble forecasts. Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts is based on proper scoring rules, along with interval coverage proportions to assess forecast calibration. The presented work is part of a pre-registered evaluation study and covers the period from January through April 2021.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>We find that many, though not all, models outperform a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead for the considered targets. Ensemble methods (i.e., combinations of different available forecasts) show very good relative performance. The addressed time period is characterized by rather stable non-pharmaceutical interventions in both countries, making short-term predictions more straightforward than in previous periods. However, major trend changes in reported cases, like the rebound in cases due to the rise of the B.1.1.7 (alpha) variant in March 2021, prove challenging to predict.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title><jats:p>Multi-model approaches can help to improve the performance of epidemiological forecasts. Howeve
AU  - Bracher,J
AU  - Wolffram,D
AU  - Deuschel,J
AU  - Görgen,K
AU  - Ketterer,JL
AU  - Ullrich,A
AU  - Abbott,S
AU  - Barbarossa,MV
AU  - Bertsimas,D
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Bodych,M
AU  - Bosse,NI
AU  - Burgard,JP
AU  - Castro,L
AU  - Fairchild,G
AU  - Fiedler,J
AU  - Fuhrmann,J
AU  - Funk,S
AU  - Gambin,A
AU  - Gogolewski,K
AU  - Heyder,S
AU  - Hotz,T
AU  - Kheifetz,Y
AU  - Kirsten,H
AU  - Krueger,T
AU  - Krymova,E
AU  - Leithäuser,N
AU  - Li,ML
AU  - Meinke,JH
AU  - Miasojedow,B
AU  - Michaud,IJ
AU  - Mohring,J
AU  - Nouvellet,P
AU  - Nowosielski,JM
AU  - Ozanski,T
AU  - Radwan,M
AU  - Rakowski,F
AU  - Scholz,M
AU  - Soni,S
AU  - Srivastava,A
AU  - Gneiting,T
AU  - Schienle,M
DO  - 10.1101/2021.11.05.21265810
PY  - 2021///
TI  - National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.05.21265810
ER  -
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