Imperial College London

DrPablo NoelPerez Guzman

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Research Postgraduate



p.perez-guzman Website




School of Public HealthWhite City Campus





I am a Research Postgraduate at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Diseases Analysis, School of Public Health. I currently study the drivers of pandemic disease severity, with a focus on COVID-19, and its effects on health systems, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Before the start of my academic career path,I trained as infectious diseases physician and practiced clinically for over 10 years in my home country, Mexico. My MSc degree is in International Health and Tropical Medicine (University of Oxford).

Prior to the start of my PhD at Imperial, I worked as research assistant analysing the Covid-19 epidemic dynamics in the UK with the Imperial College COVID-19 response teamand in projects to model population multi-morbidity by HIV status in LMICs. I also hold a honorary clinical contract at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, where I collaborate on analyses of patient health data.

I am interested in the use of statistical and mathematical modelling methods to better understand:

  • Drivers or disease severity
  • Burden of multi-morbidity in populations
  • Effects of endemic, epidemic and pandemic diseases on population health and health systems
  • Potential impact of integrated healthcare interventions
  • The costs and benefits of implementing health interventions

Research interests

Clinical research

Emerging infectious diseases

HIV and other chronic infectious diseases

Multi-morbidity and non-communicalbe diseases

Anti-microbial resistance 

Global health

Health systems and implementation research

Systems dynamics for health sciences 



Perez Guzman PN, Knock ES, Imai N, et al., 2023, Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England, Nature Communications, Vol:14, ISSN:2041-1723, Pages:1-9

Gaythorpe K, Fitzjohn R, Hinsley W, et al., 2023, Data pipelines in a public health emergency: the human in the machine, Epidemics: the Journal of Infectious Disease Dynamics, Vol:43, ISSN:1755-4365

Sonabend R, Whittles LK, Imai N, et al., 2021, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in England: a mathematical modelling study, The Lancet, Vol:398, ISSN:0140-6736, Pages:1825-1835

Vollmer MAC, Radhakrishnan S, Kont MD, et al., 2021, The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of attendance at emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study, Bmc Health Services Research, Vol:21, ISSN:1472-6963, Pages:1-9

Davis K, Perez-Guzman P, Hoyer A, et al., 2021, Correction to: Association between HIV infection and hypertension: a global systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies., Bmc Medicine, Vol:19, ISSN:1741-7015, Pages:228-228

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