Imperial College London

DrPablo NoelPerez Guzman

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Research Postgraduate
 
 
 
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p.perez-guzman

 
 
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Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Publications

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26 results found

Sonabend R, Whittles LK, Imai N, Perez Guzman PN, Knock E, Rawson T, Gaythorpe KA, Djaafara A, Hinsley W, Fitzjohn R, Lees JA, Thekke Kanapram D, Volz E, Ghani A, Ferguson NM, Baguelin M, Cori Aet al., 2021, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in England: a mathematical modelling study, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 1825-1835, ISSN: 0140-6736

Background:England's COVID-19 roadmap out of lockdown policy set out the timeline and conditions for the stepwise lifting of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as vaccination roll-out continued, with step one starting on March 8, 2021. In this study, we assess the roadmap, the impact of the delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2, and potential future epidemic trajectories.Methods:This mathematical modelling study was done to assess the UK Government's four-step process to easing lockdown restrictions in England, UK. We extended a previously described model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to incorporate vaccination and multi-strain dynamics to explicitly capture the emergence of the delta variant. We calibrated the model to English surveillance data, including hospital admissions, hospital occupancy, seroprevalence data, and population-level PCR testing data using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework, then modelled the potential trajectory of the epidemic for a range of different schedules for relaxing NPIs. We estimated the resulting number of daily infections and hospital admissions, and daily and cumulative deaths. Three scenarios spanning a range of optimistic to pessimistic vaccine effectiveness, waning natural immunity, and cross-protection from previous infections were investigated. We also considered three levels of mixing after the lifting of restrictions.Findings:The roadmap policy was successful in offsetting the increased transmission resulting from lifting NPIs starting on March 8, 2021, with increasing population immunity through vaccination. However, because of the emergence of the delta variant, with an estimated transmission advantage of 76% (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 69–83) over alpha, fully lifting NPIs on June 21, 2021, as originally planned might have led to 3900 (95% CrI 1500–5700) peak daily hospital admissions under our central parameter scenario. Delaying until July 19, 2021, reduced peak hospital admissions by three fol

Journal article

Vollmer MAC, Radhakrishnan S, Kont MD, Flaxman S, Bhatt SJ, Costelloe C, Honeyford K, Aylin P, Cooke G, Redhead J, Sanders A, Mangan H, White PJ, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Perez Guzman PN, Nayagam Set al., 2021, The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of attendance at emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study, BMC Health Services Research, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 1472-6963

Background Hospitals in England have undergone considerable change to address the surgein demand imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this on emergencydepartment (ED) attendances is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies.Methods This analysis is an observational study of ED attendances at the Imperial CollegeHealthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT). We calibrated auto-regressive integrated moving averagetime-series models of ED attendances using historic (2015-2019) data. Forecasted trendswere compared to present year ICHNT data for the period between March 12, 2020 (whenEngland implemented the first COVID-19 public health measure) and May 31, 2020. Wecompared ICHTN trends with publicly available regional and national data. Lastly, wecompared hospital admissions made via the ED and in-hospital mortality at ICHNT duringthe present year to the historic 5-year average.Results ED attendances at ICHNT decreased by 35% during the period after the firstlockdown was imposed on March 12, 2020 and before May 31, 2020, reflecting broadertrends seen for ED attendances across all England regions, which fell by approximately 50%for the same time frame. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst thoseaged <65 years and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport) andnot correlated with any of the spatial dependencies analysed such as increasing distance frompostcode of residence to the hospital. Emergency admissions of patients without COVID-19after March 12, 2020 fell by 48%; we did not observe a significant change to the crudemortality risk in patients without COVID-19 (RR 1.13, 95%CI 0.94-1.37, p=0.19).Conclusions Our study findings reflect broader trends seen across England and give anindication how emergency healthcare seeking has drastically changed. At ICHNT, we findthat a larger proportion arrived by ambulance and that hospitalisation outcomes of patientswithout COVID-19 did not differ from previous years. The ext

Journal article

Davis K, Perez-Guzman P, Hoyer A, Brinks R, Gregg E, Althoff KN, Justice AC, Reiss P, Gregson S, Smit Met al., 2021, Correction to: Association between HIV infection and hypertension: a global systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies., BMC Medicine, Vol: 19, Pages: 228-228, ISSN: 1741-7015

Journal article

Knock ES, Whittles LK, Lees JA, Perez-Guzman PN, Verity R, FitzJohn RG, Gaythorpe KAM, Imai N, Hinsley W, Okell LC, Rosello A, Kantas N, Walters CE, Bhatia S, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Cattarino L, Boonyasiri A, Djaafara BA, Fraser K, Fu H, Wang H, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Jauneikaite E, Laydon DJ, White PJ, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Cori A, Baguelin Met al., 2021, Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England, Science Translational Medicine, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1946-6234

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modelling framework allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rteff ) below 1 consistently; if introduced one week earlier it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 (95% credible interval [95%CrI]: 15,900-38,400). The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95%CrI: 0.85%-1.21%) to 0.79% (95%CrI: 0.63%-0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95%CrI: 14.7%-35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95%CrI: 5.9%-10.3%). On 2nd December 2020 England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95%CrI: 5.4%-10.2%) and 22.3% (95%CrI: 19.4%-25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow non-pharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.

Journal article

Davis K, Perez Guzman P, Hoyer A, Brinks R, Gregg E, Althoff KN, Justice AC, Reiss P, Gregson S, Smit Met al., 2021, Association between HIV infection and hypertension: a global systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies, BMC Medicine, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1741-7015

Background:Improved access to effective antiretroviral therapy has meant that people living with HIV (PLHIV) are surviving to older ages. However, PLHIV may be ageing differently to HIV-negative individuals, with dissimilar burdens of non-communicable diseases, such as hypertension. While some observational studies have reported a higher risk of prevalent hypertension among PLHIV compared to HIV-negative individuals, others have found a reduced burden. To clarify the relationship between HIV and hypertension, we identified observational studies and pooled their results to assess whether there is a difference in hypertension risk by HIV status.Methods:We performed a global systematic review and meta-analysis of published cross-sectional studies that examined hypertension risk by HIV status among adults aged > 15 (PROSPERO: CRD42019151359). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and Cochrane CENTRAL to August 23, 2020, and checked reference lists of included articles. Our main outcome was the risk ratio for prevalent hypertension in PLHIV compared to HIV-negative individuals. Summary estimates were pooled with a random effects model and meta-regression explored whether any difference was associated with study-level factors.Results:Of 21,527 identified studies, 59 were eligible (11,101,581 participants). Crude global hypertension risk was lower among PLHIV than HIV-negative individuals (risk ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.85–0.96), although heterogeneity between studies was high (I2 = 97%, p < 0.0001). The relationship varied by continent, with risk higher among PLHIV in North America (1.12, 1.02–1.23) and lower among PLHIV in Africa (0.75, 0.68–0.83) and Asia (0.77, 0.63–0.95). Meta-regression revealed strong evidence of a difference in risk ratios when comparing North American and European studies to African ones (North America 1.45, 1.21–1.74; Europe 1.20, 1.03–1.40).Conclusions:Our findings suggest that the r

Journal article

Christen P, D'Aeth J, Lochen A, McCabe R, Rizmie D, Schmit N, Nayagam S, Miraldo M, Aylin P, Bottle A, Perez Guzman P, Donnelly C, Ghani A, Ferguson N, White P, Hauck Ket al., 2021, The J-IDEA pandemic planner: a framework for implementing hospital provision interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic, Medical Care, Vol: 59, Pages: 371-378, ISSN: 0025-7079

Background : Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patientsrequiring urgent life-saving treatment for COVID-19, whilst retaining capacity for otheremergency conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by healthcareproviders and policymakers during the pandemic. Health systems must be wellpreparedto cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementinginterventions to ensure adequate access to care. We developed the first planning toolfor the COVID-19 pandemic to account for how hospital provision interventions (suchas cancelling elective surgery, setting up field hospitals, or hiring retired staff) will affectthe capacity of hospitals to provide life-saving care.Methods : We conducted a review of interventions implemented or considered in 12 European countries in March-April 2020, an evaluation of their impact on capacity, anda review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients. This information wasused to develop a planner capable of estimating the impact of specific interventions ondoctors, nurses, beds and respiratory support equipment. We applied this to ascenario-based case study of one intervention, the set-up of field hospitals in England,under varying levels of COVID-19 patients.Results : The J-IDEA pandemic planner is a hospital planning tool that allows hospitaladministrators, policymakers and other decision-makers to calculate the amount ofcapacity in terms of beds, staff and crucial medical equipment obtained byimplementing the interventions. Flexible assumptions on baseline capacity, the numberof hospitalisations, staff-to-beds ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19 make theplanner adaptable to multiple settings. The results of the case study show that whilefield hospitals alleviate the burden on the number of beds available, this intervention isfutile unless the deficit of critical care nurses is addressed first.Discussion : The tool supports decision-makers in delivering a fast and effectiveresponse to

Journal article

Middleton P, Perez-Guzman PN, Cheng A, Kumar N, Kont M, Daunt A, Mukherjee S, Cooke G, Hallett TB, Hauck K, White PJ, Thursz MR, Nayagam Set al., 2021, Characteristics and outcomes of clinically diagnosed RT-PCR swab negative COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study, Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 2045-2322

Patients with strong clinical features of COVID-19 with negative real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) SARS-CoV-2 testing are not currently included in official statistics. The scale, characteristics and clinical relevance of this group are not well described. We performed a retrospective cohort study in two large London hospitals to characterize the demographic, clinical, and hospitalization outcome characteristics of swab-negative clinical COVID-19 patients. We found 1 in 5 patients with a negative swab and clinical suspicion of COVID-19 received a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 within clinical documentation, discharge summary or death certificate. We compared this group to a similar swab positive cohort and found similar demographic composition, symptomology and laboratory findings. Swab-negative clinical COVID-19 patients had better outcomes, with shorter length of hospital stay, reduced need for >60% supplementary oxygen and reduced mortality. Patients with strong clinical features of COVID-19 that are swab-negative are a common clinical challenge. Health systems must recognize and plan for the management of swab-negative patients in their COVID-19 clinical management, infection control policies and epidemiological assessments.

Journal article

Knock E, Whittles L, Lees J, Perez Guzman P, Verity R, Fitzjohn R, Gaythorpe K, Imai N, Hinsley W, Okell L, Rosello A, Kantas N, Walters C, Bhatia S, Watson O, Whittaker C, Cattarino L, Boonyasiri A, Djaafara A, Fraser K, Fu H, Wang H, Xi X, Donnelly C, Jauneikaite E, Laydon D, White P, Ghani A, Ferguson N, Cori A, Baguelin Met al., 2020, Report 41: The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions

England has been severely affected by COVID-19. We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional 2020 surveillance data. Only national lockdown brought the reproduction number below 1 consistently; introduced one week earlier in the first wave it could have reduced mortality by 23,300 deaths on average. The mean infection fatality ratio was initially ~1.3% across all regions except London and halved following clinical care improvements. The infection fatality ratio was two-fold lower throughout in London, even when adjusting for demographics. The infection fatality ratio in care homes was 2.5-times that in the elderly in the community. Population-level infection-induced immunity in England is still far from herd immunity, with regional mean cumulative attack rates ranging between 4.4% and 15.8%.

Report

D'Aeth J, Ghosal S, Grimm F, Haw D, Koca E, Lau K, Moret S, Rizmie D, Deeny S, Perez Guzman P, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Smith P, Wiesemann W, Forchini G, Miraldo Met al., 2020, Report 40: Optimal scheduling rules for elective care to minimize years of life lost during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an application to England

SummaryCountries have deployed a wide range of policies to prioritize patients to hospital care to address unprecedent surges in demand during the course of the pandemic. Those policies included postponing planned hospital care for non-emergency cases and rationing critical care.We develop a model to optimally schedule elective hospitalizations and allocate hospital general and critical care beds to planned and emergency patients in England during the pandemic. We apply the model to NHS England data and show that optimized scheduling leads to lower years of life lost and costs than policies that reflect those implemented in England during the pandemic. Overall across all disease areas the model enables an extra 50,750 - 5,891,608 years of life gained when compared to standard policies, depending on the scenarios. Especially large gains in years of life are seen for neoplasms, diseases of the digestive system, and injuries & poisoning.

Report

Daunt A, Perez-Guzman PN, Cafferkey J, Manalan K, Cooke G, White PJ, Hauck K, Mallia P, Nayagam Set al., 2020, Factors associated with reattendance to emergency services following COVID-19 hospitalization, Journal of Medical Virology, Vol: 93, Pages: 1250-1252, ISSN: 0146-6615

Journal article

Davis K, Perez Guzman P, Hoyer A, Brinks R, Justice AC, Reiss P, Gregson S, Smit Met al., 2020, Comparing the prevalence of hypertension among HIV-positive and HIV-negative adults: a global systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies, Virtual International Workshop on Adverse Drug Reactions and Co-Morbidities in HIV

Conference paper

McCabe R, Schmit N, Christen P, D'Aeth J, Løchen A, Rizmie D, Nayagam AS, Miraldo M, Aylin P, Bottle R, Perez-Guzman PN, Ghani A, Ferguson N, White P, Hauck Ket al., 2020, Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic, BMC Medicine, Vol: 18, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1741-7015

BackgroundTo calculate hospital surge capacity, achieved via hospital provision interventions implemented for the emergency treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other patients through March to May 2020; to evaluate the conditions for admitting patients for elective surgery under varying admission levels of COVID-19 patients.MethodsWe analysed National Health Service (NHS) datasets and literature reviews to estimate hospital care capacity before the pandemic (pre-pandemic baseline) and to quantify the impact of interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, deployment of former medical staff and deployment of newly qualified medical staff) for treatment of adult COVID-19 patients, focusing on general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators.ResultsNHS England would not have had sufficient capacity to treat all COVID-19 and other patients in March and April 2020 without the hospital provision interventions, which alleviated significant shortfalls in CC nurses, CC and G&A beds and CC junior doctors. All elective surgery can be conducted at normal pre-pandemic levels provided the other interventions are sustained, but only if the daily number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 1550 in the whole of England. If the other interventions are not maintained, then elective surgery can only be conducted if the number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 320. However, there is greater national capacity to treat G&A patients: without interventions, it takes almost 10,000 G&A COVID-19 patients before any G&A elective patients would be unable to be accommodated.ConclusionsUnless COVID-19 hospitalisations drop to low levels, there is a continued need to enhance critical care capacity in England with field hospitals, use of private hospitals or deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff to allow some or all elective surge

Journal article

Smit M, Perez-Guzman P, Mutai KK, Cassidy R, Kibachio J, Kilonzo N, Hallett TBet al., 2020, Mapping the current and future non-communicable disease burden in Kenya by human immunodeficiency virus status: a modelling study, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 71, Pages: 1864-1873, ISSN: 1058-4838

Background:Then on-communicable disease (NCD) burden in Kenya is not well characterised, despite estimates needed to identify future health priorities. We aimto quantify current and future NCD burden in Kenya by HIV status. Methods: Original systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses of prevalence/incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease, depression, diabetes, high total cholesterol, hypertension, human papillomavirus infection and related pre-cancerous stages in Kenya were carried out. An individual-based model was developed, simulating births, deaths, HIV-diseaseand treatment, aforementioned NCDs and cancers. The model was parameterised using SR, epidemiological national and regional surveillance data. NCD burden was quantified for 2018-2035 by HIV statusamongst adults. Findings: SRsidentified prevalence/incidence data for eachNCD, except ischemic heart disease. The model estimates that 51% of Kenyan adults currently suffer from ≥1 NCD, with a higher burden in People Living with HIV (PLHIV)compared to HIV-negative (62% versus 51%), driven by theirhigher age profile and partlyby HIV-related risk for NCDs. Hypertension and high total cholesterolarethe main NCD drivers(adult prevalence of 20·5% (5·3 million) and 9·0% (2·3 million)), with CVD and cancers the main causesof death. The burden is projectedto increase by 2035 (56% in HIV-negative; 71% in PLHIV), with population growth doublingthe number of people needing services (15·4 million to 28·1million)by 2035. Conclusions:NCD services will need to be expanded in Kenya. Guidelines in Kenya already support provision of these amongst both the general and HIV-positive population, however coverage remains low.

Journal article

Forlano R, Mullish BH, Mukherjee SK, Nathwani R, Harlow C, Crook P, Judge R, Soubieres A, Middleton P, Daunt A, Perez-Guzman P, Selvapatt N, Lemoine M, Dhar A, Thursz MR, Nayagam S, Manousou Pet al., 2020, In-hospital mortality is associated with inflammatory response in NAFLD patients admitted for COVID-19, PLoS One, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1932-6203

Background & aimsAlthough metabolic risk factors are associated with more severe COVID-19, there is little evidence on outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We here describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of NAFLD patients in a cohort hospitalised for COVID-19.MethodsThis study included all consecutive patients admitted for COVID-19 between February and April 2020 at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, with either imaging of the liver available dated within one year from the admission or a known diagnosis of NAFLD. Clinical data and early weaning score (EWS) were recorded. NAFLD diagnosis was based on imaging or past medical history and patients were stratified for Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index. Clinical endpoints were admission to intensive care unit (ICU)and in-hospital mortality.Results561 patients were admitted. Overall, 193 patients were included in the study. Fifty nine patients (30%) died, 9 (5%) were still in hospital, and 125 (65%) were discharged. The NAFLD cohort (n = 61) was significantly younger (60 vs 70.5 years, p = 0.046) at presentation compared to the non-NAFLD (n = 132). NAFLD diagnosis was not associated with adverse outcomes. However, the NAFLD group had higher C reactive protein (CRP) (107 vs 91.2 mg/L, p = 0.05) compared to non-NAFLD(n = 132). Among NAFLD patients, male gender (p = 0.01), ferritin (p = 0.003) and EWS (p = 0.047) were associated with in-hospital mortality, while the presence of intermediate/high risk FIB-4 or liver cirrhosis was not.ConclusionThe presence of NAFLD per se was not associated with worse outcomes in patients hospitalised for COVID-19. Though NAFLD patients were younger on admission, disease stage was not associated with clinical outcomes. Yet, mortality was associated with gender and a pronounced inflammatory response in the NAFLD group.

Journal article

Davis K, Guzman PP, Gregson S, Smit Met al., 2020, Comparing the prevalence of hypertension by HIV status in sub-Saharan African adults: a systematic review and meta-analyses of cross-sectional studies, HIV Glasgow, Publisher: JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD, Pages: 70-70

Background: Some evidence from high-income countries (HICs) suggests that PLHIV experience a higher hypertension prevalence thanHIV-negative individuals. It is unclear whether this is the case in subSaharan Africa (SSA), where large-scale integration of hypertensionservices into HIV programmes is being considered. We examined thehypothesis that living with HIV is associated with higher hypertensionprevalence among adults in SSA.Materials and methods: A systematic review of MEDLINE, EMBASE,Global Health, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CochraneCentral Register of Controlled Trials and African Journals Online wasperformed, following PRISMA guidelines, to identify cross-sectionalstudies assessing hypertension prevalence in PLHIV and HIV-negativeindividuals >15 years, in SSA. Only studies defining hypertension as“study-ascertained blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg”, or as “studyascertained blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg and/or history of antihypertensive medication usage”, were included. Risk of bias assessmentsaddressed adequacy of sample sizes, participant selection and HIV andhypertension status measurement. Random effects models were usedto pool odds ratios (ORs) for prevalent hypertension.Results: We identified 1431 unique studies, of which 12 wereselected for quantitative analysis, providing data on 107 425 participants (49.4% to 69.6% female). The 12 studies collected data between2003 and 2015, in South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda. Risk of biaswas low to moderate, with participant selection a key source of bias.Hypertension prevalence ranged from 5.3% to 51.7% among PLHIVand 8.2% to 65.4% in HIV-negative individuals. Overall, hypertensionprevalence was 41% lower among PLHIV than HIV-negative individuals when using the ≥140/90 mmHg definition (n = 5, OR 0.59, 95%CI 0.55 to 0.64) and 34% lower when using the definition thatincluded medication (n = 7, OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.99).Conclusions: Robust studies comparing hypertension

Conference paper

Forlano R, Mullish B, Mukherjee S, Nathwani R, Harlow C, Crook P, Judge R, Soubieres A, Middleton P, Daunt A, Perez Guzman P, Selvapatt N, Lemoine M, Dhar A, Thursz MR, Nayagam S, Manousou Pet al., 2020, 450 - In-hospital mortality is associated with inflammatory response in NAFLD patients admitted for COVID-19, Hepatology, Vol: 72, Pages: 282A-283A, ISSN: 0270-9139

Journal article

Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, Unwin HJT, Mellan TA, Coupland H, Whittaker C, Zhu H, Berah T, Eaton JW, Monod M, Perez Guzman PN, Schmit N, Cilloni L, Ainslie K, Baguelin M, Boonyasiri A, Boyd O, Cattarino L, Cucunuba Perez Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Djaafara A, Dorigatti I, van Elsland S, Fitzjohn R, Gaythorpe K, Geidelberg L, Grassly N, Green W, Hallett T, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Jeffrey B, Knock E, Laydon D, Nedjati Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Parag K, Siveroni I, Thompson H, Verity R, Volz E, Walters C, Wang H, Watson O, Winskill P, Xi X, Walker P, Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Riley SM, Vollmer MAC, Ferguson NM, Okell LC, Bhatt Set al., 2020, Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe, Nature, Vol: 584, Pages: 257-261, ISSN: 0028-0836

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus1 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions such as closure of schools and national lockdowns. We study the impact of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of COVID-19 until the 4th of May 2020 when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries with both individual and shared effects on the reproduction number. Pooling allows more information to be used, helps overcome data idiosyncrasies, and enables more timely estimates. Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters such as the infection fatality rate, does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in the reproduction number are an immediate response to interventions rather than gradual changes in behavior. Amidst the ongoing pandemic, we rely on death data that is incomplete, with systematic biases in reporting, and subject to future consolidation. We estimate that, for all the countries we consider, current interventions have been sufficient to drive the reproduction number Rt below 1 (probability Rt< 1.0 is 99.9%) and achieve epidemic control. We estimate that, across all 11 countries, between 12 and 15 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 4th May, representing between 3.2% and 4.0% of the population. Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions and lockdown in particular have had a large effect on reducing transmission. Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.

Journal article

Perez Guzman PN, Daunt A, Mukherjee S, Crook P, Forlano R, Kont M, Lochen A, Vollmer M, Middleton P, Judge R, Harlow C, Soubieres A, Cooke G, White PJ, Hallett T, Aylin P, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Thursz M, Nayagam Set al., 2020, Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a multi-ethnic London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 2020, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 1058-4838

Background: Emerging evidence suggests ethnic minorities are disproportionatelyaffected by COVID-19. Detailed clinical analyses of multi-cultural hospitalized patientcohorts remain largely undescribed.Methods: We performed regression, survival andcumulative competing risk analyses to evaluate factors associated with mortality inpatients admitted for COVID-19 in three large London hospitals between February 25and April 5, censored as of May 1, 2020.Results: Of 614 patients (median age 69years, (IQR 25) and 62% male), 381 (62%) had been discharged alive, 178 (29%)died and 55 (9%) remained hospitalized at censoring. Severe hypoxemia (aOR 4.25,95%CI 2.36-7.64), leukocytosis (aOR 2.35, 95%CI 1.35-4.11), thrombocytopenia (aOR1.01, 95%CI 1.00-1.01, increase per 10x9decrease), severe renal impairment (aOR5.14, 95%CI 2.65-9.97), and low albumin (aOR 1.06, 95%CI 1.02-1.09, increase per gdecrease) were associated with death. Forty percent (244) were from black, Asian andother minority ethnic (BAME) groups, 38% (235) white and for 22% (135) ethnicity wasunknown. BAME patients were younger and had fewer comorbidities. Whilst theunadjusted odds of death did not differ by ethnicity, when adjusting for age, sex andcomorbidities, black patients were at higher odds of death compared to whites (aOR1.69, 95%CI 1.00-2.86). This association was stronger when further adjusting foradmission severity (aOR 1.85 95% CI 1.06-3.24). Conclusions: BAME patients were over-represented in our cohort and, whenaccounting for demographic and clinical profile of admission, black patients were atincreased odds of death. Further research is needed into biologic drivers of differencesin COVID-19 outcomes by ethnicity.

Journal article

Vollmer M, Radhakrishnan S, Kont M, Flaxman S, Bhatt S, Costelloe C, Honeyford C, Aylin P, Cooke G, Redhead J, White P, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Nayagam AS, Perez Guzman PNet al., 2020, Report 29: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study

The health care system in England has been highly affected by the surge in demand due to patients afflicted by COVID-19. Yet the impact of the pandemic on the care seeking behaviour of patients and thus on Emergency department (ED) services is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies. In this report, we aimed to assess how the reorganisation of hospital care and admission policies to respond to the COVID-19 epidemic affected ED attendances and emergency hospital admissions. We performed time-series analyses of present year vs historic (2015-2019) trends of ED attendances between March 12 and May 31 at two large central London hospitals part of Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT) and compared these to regional and national trends. Historic attendances data to ICHNT and publicly available NHS situation reports were used to calibrate time series auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting models. We thus predicted the (conterfactual) expected number of ED attendances between March 12 (when the first public health measure leading to lock-down started in England) to May 31, 2020 (when the analysis was censored) at ICHNT, at all acute London Trusts and nationally. The forecasted trends were compared to observed data for the same periods of time. Lastly, we analysed the trends at ICHNT disaggregating by mode of arrival, distance from postcode of patient residence to hospital and primary diagnosis amongst those that were subsequently admitted to hospital and compared these data to an average for the same period of time in the years 2015 to 2019.During the study period (January 1 to May 31, 2020) there was an overall decrease in ED attendances of 35% at ICHNT, of 50% across all London NHS Trusts and 53% nationally. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst those aged younger than 65 and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport). Increasing distance (km) from postcode of residence to hospi

Report

Kibachio J, Mwenda V, Ombiro O, Kamano JH, Perez-Guzman PN, Mutai KK, Guessous I, Beran D, Kasaie P, Weir B, Beecroft B, Kilonzo N, Kupfer L, Smit Met al., 2020, Recommendations for the use of mathematical modelling to support decision‐making on integration of non‐communicable diseases into HIV, Journal of the International AIDS Society, Vol: 23, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 1758-2652

Introduction: Kenya plans to focus on integrating services for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) into existing care platforms as a way of strengthening its health system, reducing redundancies and leveraging existing systems. Mathematical modelling provides a powerful tool to address questions around priorities, optimization and implementation. In this paper we will examine the case for integration of NCDs into HIV care platforms, review examples of how mathematical models have supported policy formulation in Kenya and provide a set of recommendations on the use of modelling in policy development on integration of NCD-HIV services in Kenya.Discussion: In Kenya, NCDs are the second leading cause of morbidity and mortality after HIV/AIDS and has been shown to be higher in people living with HIV. Integration of care services has shown to have generated advantages for both provider and user, be cost-effective, practical and achieve rapid coverage scale-up. The National Strategy for Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable Diseases 2015-2020 emphasizes integration of NCD with HIV care; their shared chronic nature means a majority of the programmatic and operational approaches and infrastructure developed for HIV programs could be used for NCDs, especially in resource-constrained settings. However, the vertical nature of current disease programs, policy financing and operations operate as barriers to NCD integration in Kenya. Modelling has successfully been used to inform health policy in Kenya across a number of disease areas and in a number of ways, including i) estimating current and future disease burden to set priorities for public health policy interventions, ii) forecast the requisite investments by government, iii) comparing the impact of different integration approaches, iv) performing cost-benefit analysis for integration, and v) evaluating health system capacity needs. Conclusions Modelling can and should play an integral part in the decision-making processes

Journal article

McCabe R, Schmit N, Christen P, D'Aeth J, Lochen A, Rizmie D, Nayagam AS, Miraldo M, Aylin P, Bottle R, Perez Guzman PN, Ghani A, Ferguson N, White PJ, Hauck Ket al., 2020, Report 27 Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic

To meet the growing demand for hospital care due to the COVID-19 pandemic, England implemented a range of hospital provision interventions including the procurement of equipment, the establishment of additional hospital facilities and the redeployment of staff and other resources. Additionally, to further release capacity across England’s National Health Service (NHS), elective surgery was cancelled in March 2020, leading to a backlog of patients requiring care. This created a pressure on the NHS to reintroduce elective procedures, which urgently needs to be addressed. Population-level measures implemented in March and April 2020 reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2, prompting a gradual decline in the demand for hospital care by COVID-19 patients after the peak in mid-April. Planning capacity to bring back routine procedures for non-COVID-19 patients whilst maintaining the ability to respond to any potential future increases in demand for COVID-19 care is the challenge currently faced by healthcare planners.In this report, we aim to calculate hospital capacity for emergency treatment of COVID-19 and other patients during the pandemic surge in April and May 2020; to evaluate the increase in capacity achieved via five interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, and deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff); and to determine how to re-introduce elective surgery considering continued demand from COVID-19 patients. We do this by modelling the supply of acute NHS hospital care, considering different capacity scenarios, namely capacity before the pandemic (baseline scenario) and after the implementation of capacity expansion interventions that impact available general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators. Demand for hospital care is accounted for in terms of non-COVID-19 and COVID-19 patients. Our results suggest that NHS England would not have had sufficient daily capacity

Report

Perez Guzman PN, Daunt A, Mukherjee S, Crook P, Forlano R, Kont M, Lochen A, Vollmer M, Middleton P, Judge R, Harlow C, Soubieres A, Cooke G, White P, Hallett T, Aylin P, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Thursz M, Nayagam ASet al., 2020, Report 17: Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study

Clinical characteristics and determinants of outcomes for hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the UK remain largely undescribed and emerging evidence suggests ethnic minorities might be disproportionately affected. We describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in three large London hospitals with a multi-ethnic catchment population.We performed a retrospective cohort study on all patients hospitalised with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust between February 25 and April 5, 2020. Outcomes were recorded as of April 19, 2020. Logistic regression models, survival analyses and cumulative competing risk analyses were performed to evaluate factors associated with COVID-19 hospital mortality.Of 520 patients in this cohort (median age 67 years, (IQR 26) and 62% male), 302 (68%) had been discharged alive, 144 (32%) died and 74 (14%) were still hospitalised at the time of censoring. Increasing age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·16, 95%CI 1·50-3·12), severe hypoxia (aOR 3·75, 95%CI 1·80-7·80), low platelets (aOR 0·65, 95%CI 0.49·0·85), reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (aOR 4·11, 95%CI 1·58-10·69), bilirubin >21mmol/L (aOR 2·32, 95%CI 1·05-5·14) and low albumin (aOR 0·77, 9%%CI 0·59-1·01) were associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Individual comorbidities were not independently associated with risk of death. Regarding ethnicity, 209 (40%) were from a black and Asian minority, for 115 (22%) ethnicity was unknown and 196 (38%) patients were white. Compared to the latter, black patients were significantly younger and had less comorbidities. Whilst the crude OR of death of black compared to white patients was not significant (1·14, 95%CI 0·69-1·88, p=0.62), adjusting for age and comorbidity showed a trend towards significance

Report

Christen P, D'Aeth J, Lochen A, McCabe R, Rizmie D, Schmit N, Nayagam AS, Miraldo M, White P, Aylin P, Bottle R, Perez Guzman PN, Donnelly C, Ghani A, Ferguson N, Hauck Ket al., 2020, Report 15: Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic

Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patients requiring urgent life-saving treatment for COVID-19, and other conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks facing healthcare commissioners and care providers during the pandemic. Due to uncertainty in expected patient numbers requiring care, as well as evolving needs day by day, planning hospital capacity is challenging. Health systems that are well prepared for the pandemic can better cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementing strategies to ensure adequate access to care. Thereby the burden of the pandemic can be mitigated, and many lives saved. This report presents the J-IDEA pandemic planner, a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals. We show how to assess baseline capacity, and then calculate how much capacity is gained by various healthcare interventions using impact estimates that are generated as part of this study. Interventions are informed by a rapid review of policy decisions implemented or being considered in 12 European countries over the past few months , an evaluation of the impact of the interventions on capacity using a variety of research methods, and by a review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients.The J-IDEA planner is publicly available, interactive and adaptable to different and changing circumstances and newly emerging evidence. The planner estimates the additional number of beds, medical staff and crucial medical equipment obtained under various healthcare interventions using flexible inputs on assumptions of existing capacities, the number of hospitalisations, beds-to-staff ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19. A detailed user guide accompanies the planner. The planner was developed rapidly and has limitations which we will address in future iterations. It support

Report

Perez-Guzman PN, Chung MH, De Vuyst H, Dalal S, Mutai KK, Muthoni K, Kigen B, Kilonzo N, Hallett TB, Smit Met al., 2020, The impact of scaling up cervical cancer screening and treatment services among women living with HIV in Kenya: a modelling study, BMJ Global Health, Vol: 5, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 2059-7908

Introduction We aimed to quantify health outcomes and programmatic implications of scaling up cervical cancer (CC) screening and treatment options for women living with HIV in care aged 18–65 in Kenya.Methods Mathematical model comparing from 2020 to 2040: (1) visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) and cryotherapy (Cryo); (2) VIA and Cryo or loop excision electrical procedure (LEEP), as indicated; (3) human papillomavirus (HPV)-DNA testing and Cryo or LEEP; and (4) enhanced screening technologies (either same-day HPV-DNA testing or digitally enhanced VIA) and Cryo or LEEP. Outcomes measured were annual number of CC cases, deaths, screening and treatment interventions, and engaged in care (numbers screened, treated and cured) and five yearly age-standardised incidence.Results All options will reduce CC cases and deaths compared with no scale-up. Options 1–3 will perform similarly, averting approximately 28 000 (33%) CC cases and 7700 (27%) deaths. That is, VIA screening would yield minimal losses to follow-up (LTFU). Conversely, LTFU associated with HPV-DNA testing will yield a lower care engagement, despite better diagnostic performance. In contrast, option 4 would maximise health outcomes, averting 43 200 (50%) CC cases and 11 800 (40%) deaths, given greater care engagement. Yearly rescreening with either option will impose a substantial burden on the health system, which could be reduced by spacing out frequency to three yearly without undermining health gains.Conclusions Beyond the specific choice of technologies to scale up, efficiently using available options will drive programmatic success. Addressing practical constraints around diagnostics’ performance and LTFU will be key to effectively avert CC cases and deaths.

Journal article

Oboist U, Perez PN, Villabona-Arenas CJ, Theze J, Faria NR, Lourenco Jet al., 2019, MVSE: An R-package that estimates a climate-driven mosquito-borne viral suitability index, Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Vol: 10, Pages: 1357-1370, ISSN: 2041-210X

Viruses, such as dengue, Zika, yellow fever and chikungunya, depend on mosquitoes for transmission. Their epidemics typically present periodic patterns, linked to the underlying mosquito population dynamics, which are known to be driven by natural climate fluctuations. Understanding how climate dictates the timing and potential of viral transmission is essential for preparedness of public health systems and design of control strategies. While various alternative approaches have been proposed to estimate local transmission potential of such viruses, few open‐source, ready to use and freely available software tools exist.We developed the M osquito‐borne V iral S uitability E stimator (MVSE ) software package for the R programming environment. MVSE estimates the index P, a novel suitability index based on a climate‐driven mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number of mosquito‐borne viruses. By accounting for local humidity and temperature, as well as viral, vector and human priors, the index P can be estimated for specific host and viral species in different regions of the globe.We describe the background theory, empirical support and biological interpretation of the index P. Using real‐world examples spanning multiple epidemiological contexts, we further demonstrate MVSE 's basic functionality, research and educational potentials.

Journal article

Perez-Guzman PN, Carlos Junior Alcantara L, Obolski U, de Lima MM, Ashley EA, Smithuis F, Horby P, Maude RJ, Lin Z, Kyaw AMM, Lourenço Jet al., 2018, Measuring mosquito-borne viral suitability in Myanmar and implications for local Zika virus transmission, PLoS Currents: Tree of Life, ISSN: 2157-3999

Introduction: In South East Asia, mosquito-borne viruses (MBVs) have long been a cause of high disease burden and significant economic costs. While in some SEA countries the epidemiology of MBVs is spatio-temporally well characterised and understood, in others such as Myanmar our understanding is largely incomplete. Materials and Methods: Here, we use a simple mathematical approach to estimate a climate-driven suitability index aiming to better characterise the intrinsic, spatio-temporal potential of MBVs in Myanmar. Results: Results show that the timing and amplitude of the natural oscillations of our suitability index are highly informative for the temporal patterns of DENV case counts at the country level, and a mosquito-abundance measure at a city level. When projected at fine spatial scales, the suitability index suggests that the time period of highest MBV transmission potential is between June and October independently of geographical location. Higher potential is nonetheless found along the middle axis of the country and in particular in the southern corridor of international borders with Thailand. Discussion: This research complements and expands our current understanding of MBV transmission potential in Myanmar, by identifying key spatial heterogeneities and temporal windows of importance for surveillance and control. We discuss our findings in the context of Zika virus given its recent worldwide emergence, public health impact, and current lack of information on its epidemiology and transmission potential in Myanmar. The proposed suitability index here demonstrated is applicable to other regions of the world for which surveillance data is missing, either due to lack of resources or absence of an MBV of interest.

Journal article

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