Imperial College London
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DrPablo NoelPerez Guzman

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Research Postgraduate
 
 
 
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Contact

 

p.perez-guzman Website

 
 
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Location

 

G31Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Smit:2020:cid/ciz1103,
author = {Smit, M and Perez-Guzman, PN and Mutai, KK and Cassidy, R and Kibachio, J and Kilonzo, N and Hallett, TB},
doi = {cid/ciz1103},
journal = {Clin Infect Dis},
pages = {1864--1873},
title = {Mapping the Current and Future Noncommunicable Disease Burden in Kenya by Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status: A Modeling Study.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz1103},
volume = {71},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BACKGROUND: The noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden in Kenya is not well characterized, despite estimates needed to identify future health priorities. We aimed to quantify current and future NCD burden in Kenya by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status. METHODS: Original systematic reviews and meta-analyses of prevalence/incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease, depression, diabetes, high total cholesterol, hypertension, human papillomavirus infection, and related precancerous stages in Kenya were carried out. An individual-based model was developed, simulating births, deaths, HIV disease and treatment, aforementioned NCDs, and cancers. The model was parameterized using systematic reviews and epidemiological national and regional surveillance data. NCD burden was quantified for 2018-2035 by HIV status among adults. RESULTS: Systematic reviews identified prevalence/incidence data for each NCD except ischemic heart disease. The model estimates that 51% of Kenyan adults currently suffer from ≥1 NCD, with a higher burden in people living with HIV (PLWH) compared to persons not living with HIV (62% vs 51%), driven by their higher age profile and partly by HIV-related risk for NCDs. Hypertension and high total cholesterol are the main NCD drivers (adult prevalence of 20.5% [5.3 million] and 9.0% [2.3 million]), with CVD and cancers the main causes of death. The burden is projected to increase by 2035 (56% in persons not living with HIV; 71% in PLWH), with population growth doubling the number of people needing services (15.4 million to 28.1 million) by 2035. CONCLUSIONS: NCD services will need to be expanded in Kenya. Guidelines in Kenya already support provision of these among both the general and populations living with HIV; however, coverage remains low.
AU  - Smit,M
AU  - Perez-Guzman,PN
AU  - Mutai,KK
AU  - Cassidy,R
AU  - Kibachio,J
AU  - Kilonzo,N
AU  - Hallett,TB
DO  - cid/ciz1103
EP  - 1873
PY  - 2020///
SP  - 1864
TI  - Mapping the Current and Future Noncommunicable Disease Burden in Kenya by Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status: A Modeling Study.
T2  - Clin Infect Dis
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz1103
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31734688
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/74320
VL  - 71
ER  -
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