Imperial College London
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DrPablo NoelPerez Guzman

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Research Postgraduate
 
 
 
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Contact

 

p.perez-guzman Website

 
 
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Location

 

G31Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Perez-Guzman:2018:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.7a6c64436a3085ebba37e5329ba169e6,
author = {Perez-Guzman, PN and Carlos, Junior Alcantara L and Obolski, U and de, Lima MM and Ashley, EA and Smithuis, F and Horby, P and Maude, RJ and Lin, Z and Kyaw, AMM and Lourenço, J},
doi = {10.1371/currents.outbreaks.7a6c64436a3085ebba37e5329ba169e6},
journal = {PLoS Currents: Tree of Life},
pages = {1--15},
title = {Measuring mosquito-borne viral suitability in Myanmar and implications for local Zika virus transmission},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.7a6c64436a3085ebba37e5329ba169e6},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Introduction: In South East Asia, mosquito-borne viruses (MBVs) have long been a cause of high disease burden and significant economic costs. While in some SEA countries the epidemiology of MBVs is spatio-temporally well characterised and understood, in others such as Myanmar our understanding is largely incomplete. Materials and Methods: Here, we use a simple mathematical approach to estimate a climate-driven suitability index aiming to better characterise the intrinsic, spatio-temporal potential of MBVs in Myanmar. Results: Results show that the timing and amplitude of the natural oscillations of our suitability index are highly informative for the temporal patterns of DENV case counts at the country level, and a mosquito-abundance measure at a city level. When projected at fine spatial scales, the suitability index suggests that the time period of highest MBV transmission potential is between June and October independently of geographical location. Higher potential is nonetheless found along the middle axis of the country and in particular in the southern corridor of international borders with Thailand. Discussion: This research complements and expands our current understanding of MBV transmission potential in Myanmar, by identifying key spatial heterogeneities and temporal windows of importance for surveillance and control. We discuss our findings in the context of Zika virus given its recent worldwide emergence, public health impact, and current lack of information on its epidemiology and transmission potential in Myanmar. The proposed suitability index here demonstrated is applicable to other regions of the world for which surveillance data is missing, either due to lack of resources or absence of an MBV of interest.
AU  - Perez-Guzman,PN
AU  - Carlos,Junior Alcantara L
AU  - Obolski,U
AU  - de,Lima MM
AU  - Ashley,EA
AU  - Smithuis,F
AU  - Horby,P
AU  - Maude,RJ
AU  - Lin,Z
AU  - Kyaw,AMM
AU  - Lourenço,J
DO  - 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.7a6c64436a3085ebba37e5329ba169e6
EP  - 15
PY  - 2018///
SN  - 2157-3999
SP  - 1
TI  - Measuring mosquito-borne viral suitability in Myanmar and implications for local Zika virus transmission
T2  - PLoS Currents: Tree of Life
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.7a6c64436a3085ebba37e5329ba169e6
UR  - https://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/measuring-mosquito-borne-viral-suitability-in-myanmar-and-implications-for-local-zika-virus-transmission/
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/79756
VL  - 10
ER  -
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