Imperial College London
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ProfessorPeterStafford

Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Professor of Engineering Seismology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 7916p.stafford

 
 
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Assistant

 

Ms Ruth Bello +44 (0)20 7594 6040

 
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Location

 

321Skempton BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Bommer:2020:10.1785/0120200171,
author = {Bommer, J and Stafford, PJ},
doi = {10.1785/0120200171},
journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America},
pages = {2801--2815},
title = {Selecting ground-motion models for site-specific PSHA: adaptability vs applicability},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120200171},
volume = {110},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Capturing the center, the body and the range of ground-motion predictions is an indispensableelement of site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA), for which the logic tree isthe ubiquitous tool in current practice. The criteria for selecting the ground-motion models (GMMs)used in such studies have generally been focused on their potential applicability to the region andsite for which the PSHA is being conducted. However, except for applications within the fewregions with abundant ground-motion databases, it will rarely be the case that GMMs can beidentified which are perfectly calibrated to the characteristics of the target study region in termsof source and path properties. A good match between the generic site amplification model withinthe GMM and the site-specific dynamic response characteristics is equally, if not more, unlikely.Consequently, adjustments are likely to be made to the selected GMMs to render them moreapplicable to the target region and site. Empirical adjustments for host-to-target region sourcedifferences using local recordings are unlikely to be robust unless these have been generated byearthquakes from a wide range of magnitudes. Empirical adjustments for site characteristics areimpossible unless there are recordings from the target site. Therefore, the preferred approachmakes parametric adjustments to empirical GMMs, isolating each host-to-target difference to mapthe individual contributions to the epistemic uncertainty. For such an approach to be applied, theemphasis moves from selecting GMMs on the basis of their applicability to focusing on theiramenability to being adjusted to the target region and site. An adaptable equation is characterizedby well constrained host-region source, path and site characteristics and a functional form inwhich response spectral accelerations scale with source, path and site characteristics in a mannersimilar to the scaling implicit in stochastic simulations based on Fourier amplitude spectra.
AU  - Bommer,J
AU  - Stafford,PJ
DO  - 10.1785/0120200171
EP  - 2815
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 0037-1106
SP  - 2801
TI  - Selecting ground-motion models for site-specific PSHA: adaptability vs applicability
T2  - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120200171
UR  - https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article/110/6/2801/590471/Selecting-Ground-Motion-Models-for-Site-Specific
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/81392
VL  - 110
ER  -
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