Imperial College London
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DrPeterWinskill

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Research Fellow
 
 
 
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p.winskill

 
 
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Location

 

School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@techreport{Ainslie:2020:10.25561/77646,
author = {Ainslie, K and Walters, C and Fu, H and Bhatia, S and Wang, H and Baguelin, M and Bhatt, S and Boonyasiri, A and Boyd, O and Cattarino, L and Ciavarella, C and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Dighe, A and Dorigatti, I and van, Elsland S and Fitzjohn, R and Gaythorpe, K and Geidelberg, L and Ghani, A and Green, W and Hamlet, A and Hinsley, W and Imai, N and Jorgensen, D and Knock, E and Laydon, D and Nedjati, Gilani G and Okell, L and Siveroni, I and Thompson, H and Unwin, H and Verity, R and Vollmer, M and Walker, P and Wang, Y and Watson, O and Whittaker, C and Winskill, P and Xi, X and Donnelly, C and Ferguson, N and Riley, S},
doi = {10.25561/77646},
title = {Report 11: Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/77646},
year = {2020}
}
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TY  - RPRT
AB  - The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. As of 20 March 2020, over 254,000 cases and 10,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. The outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. At the peak of the outbreak in China (early February), there were between 2,000 and 4,000 new confirmed cases per day. For the first time since the outbreak began there have been no new confirmed cases caused by local transmission in China reported for five consecutive days up to 23 March 2020. This is an indication that the social distancing measures enacted in China have led to control of COVID-19 in China. These interventions have also impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic is not yet clear. Here, we estimate transmissibility from reported cases and compare those estimates with daily data on within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the 5 provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation is no longer apparent even though within-city movement has started to increase. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity can be maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. These results do not preclude future epidemics in China, nor do they allow us to estimate the maximum proportion of previous within-city activity that will be recovered in the medium term. However, they do suggest that after very intense social distancing which resulted in containment, China has successfully exited their stringent social distancing policy to some degree. Globally, China is at a more advanced stage of the pandemic. Policies implemented to reduce the spread of CO
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Fu,H
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Boyd,O
AU  - Cattarino,L
AU  - Ciavarella,C
AU  - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Dighe,A
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Geidelberg,L
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Green,W
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Jorgensen,D
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU  - Okell,L
AU  - Siveroni,I
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - Unwin,H
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - Vollmer,M
AU  - Walker,P
AU  - Wang,Y
AU  - Watson,O
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Winskill,P
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Riley,S
DO  - 10.25561/77646
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Report 11: Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/77646
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-24-COVID19-Report-11.pdf
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/77646
ER  -
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