Imperial College London
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DrPeterWinskill

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

p.winskill

 
 
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Location

 

School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Walker:2020:10.1126/science.abc0035,
author = {Walker, PGT and Whittaker, C and Watson, OJ and Baguelin, M and Winskill, P and Hamlet, A and Djafaara, BA and Cucunubá, Z and Olivera, Mesa D and Green, W and Thompson, H and Nayagam, S and Ainslie, KEC and Bhatia, S and Bhatt, S and Boonyasiri, A and Boyd, O and Brazeau, NF and Cattarino, L and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Dighe, A and Donnelly, CA and Dorigatti, I and van, Elsland SL and FitzJohn, R and Fu, H and Gaythorpe, KAM and Geidelberg, L and Grassly, N and Haw, D and Hayes, S and Hinsley, W and Imai, N and Jorgensen, D and Knock, E and Laydon, D and Mishra, S and Nedjati-Gilani, G and Okell, LC and Unwin, HJ and Verity, R and Vollmer, M and Walters, CE and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Xi, X and Lalloo, DG and Ferguson, NM and Ghani, AC},
doi = {10.1126/science.abc0035},
journal = {Science},
pages = {413--422},
title = {The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc0035},
volume = {369},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower income countries may reduce overall risk but limited health system capacity coupled with closer inter-generational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower income countries due to the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being and economies of these countries.
AU  - Walker,PGT
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Watson,OJ
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Winskill,P
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Djafaara,BA
AU  - Cucunubá,Z
AU  - Olivera,Mesa D
AU  - Green,W
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - Nayagam,S
AU  - Ainslie,KEC
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Boyd,O
AU  - Brazeau,NF
AU  - Cattarino,L
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Dighe,A
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - van,Elsland SL
AU  - FitzJohn,R
AU  - Fu,H
AU  - Gaythorpe,KAM
AU  - Geidelberg,L
AU  - Grassly,N
AU  - Haw,D
AU  - Hayes,S
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Jorgensen,D
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Nedjati-Gilani,G
AU  - Okell,LC
AU  - Unwin,HJ
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - Vollmer,M
AU  - Walters,CE
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Wang,Y
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Lalloo,DG
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Ghani,AC
DO  - 10.1126/science.abc0035
EP  - 422
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 0036-8075
SP  - 413
TI  - The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries
T2  - Science
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc0035
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32532802
UR  - https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6502/413
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/79904
VL  - 369
ER  -
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