6 results found
Seferidi P, Laverty A, Pearson-Stuttard J, et al., 2019, Impacts of Brexit on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study, BMJ Open, Vol: 9, ISSN: 2044-6055
Objectives To estimate the potential impacts of different Brexit trade policy scenarios on the price and intake of fruits and vegetables (F&V) and consequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths in England between 2021 and 2030.Design Economic and epidemiological modelling study with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Setting The model combined publicly available data on F&V trade, published estimates of UK-specific price elasticities, national survey data on F&V intake, estimates on the relationship between F&V intake and CVD from published meta-analyses and CVD mortality projections for 2021–2030.Participants English adults aged 25 years and older.Interventions We modelled four potential post-Brexit trade scenarios: (1) free trading agreement with the EU and maintaining half of non-EU free trade partners; (2) free trading agreement with the EU but no trade deal with any non-EU countries; (3) no-deal Brexit; and (4) liberalised trade regime that eliminates all import tariffs.Outcome measures Cumulative coronary heart disease and stroke deaths attributed to the different Brexit scenarios modelled between 2021 and 2030.Results Under all Brexit scenarios modelled, prices of F&V would increase, especially for those highly dependent on imports. This would decrease intake of F&V between 2.5% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.9% to 3.1%) and 11.4% (9.5% to 14.2%) under the different scenarios. Our model suggests that a no-deal Brexit scenario would be the most harmful, generating approximately 12 400 (6690 to 23 390) extra CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, whereas establishing a free trading agreement with the EU would have a lower impact on mortality, contributing approximately 5740 (2860 to 11 910) extra CVD deaths.Conclusions Trade policy under all modelled Brexit scenarios could increase price and decrease intake of F&V, generating substantial additional CVD mortality in England. The UK government should consider the population healt
Seferidi P, Laverty AA, Pearson-Stuttard J, et al., Implications of Brexit on the effectiveness of the UK soft drinks industry levy upon coronary heart disease in England: a modelling study, Public Health Nutrition, ISSN: 1368-9800
Objective:An industry levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was implemented in the UK in 2018. One year later, Brexit is likely to change the UK trade regime with potential implications for sugar price. We modelled the effect of potential changes in sugar price due to Brexit on SSB levy impacts upon CHD mortality and inequalities.Design:We modelled a baseline SSB levy scenario; an SSB levy under ‘soft’ Brexit, where the UK establishes a free trading agreement with the EU; and an SSB levy under ‘hard’ Brexit, in which World Trade Organization tariffs are applied. We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the effect of each scenario on CHD deaths prevented or postponed and life-years gained, stratified by age, sex and socio-economic circumstance, in 2021.Setting:England.Subjects:Adults aged 25 years or older.Results:The SSB levy was associated with approximately 370 (95 % uncertainty interval 220, 560) fewer CHD deaths and 4490 (2690, 6710) life-years gained in 2021. Associated reductions in CHD mortality were 4 and 8 % greater under ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ Brexit scenarios, respectively. The SSB levy was associated with approximately 110 (50, 190) fewer CHD deaths in the most deprived quintile compared with 60 (20, 100) in the most affluent, under ‘hard’ Brexit.Conclusions:Our study found the SSB levy resilient to potential effects of Brexit upon sugar price. Even under ‘hard’ Brexit, the SSB levy would yield benefits for CHD mortality and inequalities. Brexit negotiations should deliver a fiscal and regulatory environment which promotes population health.
Seferidi S, Laverty AA, Pearson-Stuttard J, et al., 2018, POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF BREXIT ON CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE VIA CHANGES TO THE PRICE OF FRUITS AND VEGETABLES: A MODELLING ANALYSIS, Publisher: BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: A21-A21, ISSN: 0143-005X
Seferidi P, Laverty AA, Pearson-Stuttard J, et al., 2017, Implications of Brexit for the effectiveness of the UK soft drinks industry levy on coronary heart disease in England: a modelling study, Public Health Science Conference, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, Pages: S9-S9, ISSN: 0140-6736
Seferidi P, Millett C, Laverty AA, 2017, Sweetened beverage intake in association to energy and sugar consumption and cardiometabolic markers in children, Pediatric Obesity, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 2047-6310
BackgroundArtificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) are promoted as healthy alternatives to sugar‐sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce sugar intake, but their effects on weight control and glycaemia have been debated. This study examines associations of SSBs and ASBs with energy and sugar intake and cardiometabolic measures.MethodsOne thousand six hundred eighty‐seven children aged 4–18 participated in the National Diet and Nutrition Survey Rolling Programme (2008/9–2011/12) in the UK. Linear regression was used to examine associations between SSBs and ASBs and energy and sugar, overall and from solid foods and beverages, and body mass index, waist‐to‐hip ratio and blood analytes. Fixed effects linear regression examined within‐person associations with energy and sugar.ResultsCompared with non‐consumption, SSB consumption was associated with higher sugar intake overall (6.1%; 4.2, 8.1) and ASB consumption with higher sugar intake from solid foods (1.7%; 0.5, 2.9) but not overall, mainly among boys. On SSB consumption days, energy and sugar intakes were higher (216 kcal; 163, 269 and 7.0%; 6.2, 7.8), and on ASB consumption days, sugar intake was lower (−1.0%; −1.8, −0.1) compared with those on non‐consumption days. SSB and ASB intakes were associated with higher levels of blood glucose (SSB: 0.30 mmol L−1; 0.11, 0.49 and ASB: 0.24 mmol L−1; 0.06, 0.43) and SSB intake with higher triglycerides (0.29 mmol L−1; 0.13, 0.46). No associations were found with other outcomes.ConclusionSugar‐sweetened beverage intake was associated with higher sugar intake and both SSBs and ASBs with a less healthy cardiometabolic profile. These findings add to evidence that health policy should discourage all sweetened beverage consumption.
Oude Griep LM, Seferidi P, Stamler J, et al., 2016, Relation of unprocessed, processed red meat and poultry consumption to blood pressure in East Asian and Western adults, Journal of Hypertension, Vol: 34, Pages: 1721-1729, ISSN: 1473-5598
Background: Epidemiologic evidence suggests that relationships of red meat consumption with risk of cardiovascular diseases depends on whether or not the meat is processed, including addition of preservatives, but evidence is limited for blood pressure (BP). Objective: To examine cross-sectional associations with BP of unprocessed and processed red meat and poultry consumption, total and by type, using data from the INTERnational study on MAcro/micronutrients and blood Pressure (INTERMAP).Design: INTERMAP included 4,680 men and women ages 40-59 years from 17 population samples in Japan, China, the United Kingdom, and the United States. During four visits, eight BP measurements, four multi-pass 24-hr dietary recalls, and two timed 24-hr urine samples were collected.Results: Average daily total unprocessed/processed meat consumption (g/1000 kcal) was 20/5 in East Asian and 38/21 in Western participants. Unprocessed meat intakes comprised red meat for 75% in East Asian and 50% in Western participants. In Westerners, multiple linear regression analyses showed systolic/diastolic BP differences for total unprocessed red meat consumption higher by 25 g/1000 kcal +0.74/+0.57 mmHg (P=0.03/0.01) and for unprocessed poultry of +0.79/+0.16 mmHg (P=0.02/0.50). Unprocessed red meat was not related to BP in East Asian participants. In Westerners, systolic/diastolic BP differences for processed red meat higher by 12.5 g/1000 kcal were +1.20/+0.24 mmHg (P<0.01/0.24), due to consumption of cold cuts and sausages (+1.59/+0.32 mmHg, P<0.001/0.27).Conclusion: These findings are consistent with recommendations to limit meat intake (processed and unprocessed) to maintain and improve cardiovascular health.
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