Imperial College London
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DrPatrickWalker

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Senior Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3946patrick.walker06

 
 
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Location

 

UG12Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@techreport{van:2020:10.25561/82443,
author = {van, Elsland S and Watson, O and Alhaffar, M and Mehchy, Z and Whittaker, C and Akil, Z and Ainslie, K and Baguelin, M and Bhatt, S and Boonyasiri, A and Boyd, O and Brazeau, N and Cattarino, L and Charles, G and Ciavarella, C and Cooper, L and Coupland, H and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Djaafara, A and Donnelly, C and Dorigatti, I and Eales, O and van, Elsland S and Nascimento, F and Fitzjohn, R and Flaxman, S and Forna, A and Fu, H and Gaythorpe, K and Green, W and Hamlet, A and Hauck, K and Haw, D and Hayes, S and Hinsley, W and Imai, N and Jeffrey, B and Johnson, R and Jorgensen, D and Knock, E and Laydon, D and Lees, J and Mellan, T and Mishra, S and Nedjati, Gilani G and Nouvellet, P and Okell, L and Olivera, Mesa D and Pons, Salort M and Ragonnet-Cronin, M and Siveroni, I and Stopard, I and Thompson, H and Unwin, H and Verity, R and Vollmer, M and Volz, E and Walters, C and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Whittles, L and Winskill, P and Xi, X and Ferguson, N and Beals,},
doi = {10.25561/82443},
title = {Report 31: Estimating the burden of COVID-19 in Damascus, Syria: an analysis of novel data sources to infer mortality under-ascertainment},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/82443},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - RPRT
AB  - The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial mortality worldwide. However, to date, countries in the Middle East and Africa have reported substantially lower mortality rates than in Europe and the Americas. One hypothesis is that these countries have been ‘spared’, but another is that deaths have been under-ascertained (deaths that have been unreported due to any number of reasons, for instance due to limited testing capacity). However, the scale of under-ascertainment is difficult to assess with currently available data. In this analysis, we estimate the potential under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality in Damascus, Syria, where all-cause mortality data has been reported between 25th July and 1st August. We fit a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to reported COVID-19 deaths in Damascus since the beginning of the pandemic and compare the model-predicted deaths to reported excess deaths. Exploring a range of different assumptions about under-ascertainment, we estimate that only 1.25% of deaths (sensitivity range 1% - 3%) due to COVID-19 are reported in Damascus. Accounting for under-ascertainment also corroborates local reports of exceeded hospital bed capacity. To validate the epidemic dynamics inferred, we leverage community-uploaded obituary certificates as an alternative data source, which confirms extensive mortality under-ascertainment in Damascus between July and August. This level of under-ascertainment suggests that Damascus is at a much later stage in its epidemic than suggested by surveillance reports, which have repo. We estimate that 4,340 (95% CI: 3,250 - 5,540) deaths due to COVID-19 in Damascus may have been missed as of 2nd September 2020. Given that Damascus is likely to have the most robust surveillance in Syria, these findings suggest that other regions of the country could have experienced similar or worse mortality rates due to COVID-19.
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Watson,O
AU  - Alhaffar,M
AU  - Mehchy,Z
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Akil,Z
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Boyd,O
AU  - Brazeau,N
AU  - Cattarino,L
AU  - Charles,G
AU  - Ciavarella,C
AU  - Cooper,L
AU  - Coupland,H
AU  - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Djaafara,A
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Nascimento,F
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Forna,A
AU  - Fu,H
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Green,W
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Hauck,K
AU  - Haw,D
AU  - Hayes,S
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Jeffrey,B
AU  - Johnson,R
AU  - Jorgensen,D
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Lees,J
AU  - Mellan,T
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU  - Nouvellet,P
AU  - Okell,L
AU  - Olivera,Mesa D
AU  - Pons,Salort M
AU  - Ragonnet-Cronin,M
AU  - Siveroni,I
AU  - Stopard,I
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - Unwin,H
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - Vollmer,M
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Wang,Y
AU  - Whittles,L
AU  - Winskill,P
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Beals,E
AU  - Walker,P
AU  - Anonymous,Authors
DO  - 10.25561/82443
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Report 31: Estimating the burden of COVID-19 in Damascus, Syria: an analysis of novel data sources to infer mortality under-ascertainment
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/82443
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/15-09-2020-COVID19-Report-31.pdf
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/82443
ER  -
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