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@article{Unwin:2020:10.1038/s41467-020-19652-6,
author = {Unwin, H and Mishra, S and Bradley, V and Gandy, A and Mellan, T and Coupland, H and Ish-Horowicz, J and Vollmer, M and Whittaker, C and Filippi, S and Xi, X and Monod, M and Ratmann, O and Hutchinson, M and Valka, F and Zhu, H and Hawryluk, I and Milton, P and Ainslie, K and Baguelin, M and Boonyasiri, A and Brazeau, N and Cattarino, L and Cucunuba, Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Dorigatti, I and Eales, O and Eaton, J and van, Elsland S and Fitzjohn, R and Gaythorpe, K and Green, W and Hinsley, W and Jeffrey, B and Knock, E and Laydon, D and Lees, J and Nedjati-Gilani, G and Nouvellet, P and Okell, L and Parag, K and Siveroni, I and Thompson, H and Walker, P and Walters, C and Watson, O and Whittles, L and Ghani, A and Ferguson, N and Riley, S and Donnelly, C and Bhatt, S and Flaxman, S},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-19652-6},
journal = {Nature Communications},
pages = {1--9},
title = {State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19652-6},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - As of 1st June 2020, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country.  We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available deathdata within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework.  For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We use changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on therate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate thatRtwas only below one in 23 states on 1st June. We also estimate that 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the total population of the US had been infected, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We demonstrate good 3 week model forecasts of deaths with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals.
AU  - Unwin,H
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Bradley,V
AU  - Gandy,A
AU  - Mellan,T
AU  - Coupland,H
AU  - Ish-Horowicz,J
AU  - Vollmer,M
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Filippi,S
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Monod,M
AU  - Ratmann,O
AU  - Hutchinson,M
AU  - Valka,F
AU  - Zhu,H
AU  - Hawryluk,I
AU  - Milton,P
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Brazeau,N
AU  - Cattarino,L
AU  - Cucunuba,Z
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Eaton,J
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Green,W
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Jeffrey,B
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Lees,J
AU  - Nedjati-Gilani,G
AU  - Nouvellet,P
AU  - Okell,L
AU  - Parag,K
AU  - Siveroni,I
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - Walker,P
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Watson,O
AU  - Whittles,L
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Flaxman,S
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-020-19652-6
EP  - 9
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 2041-1723
SP  - 1
TI  - State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
T2  - Nature Communications
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19652-6
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19652-6
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/83296
VL  - 11
ER  -

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