Publications
81 results found
Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, et al., 2009, Influenza: Making Privileged Data Public Response, SCIENCE, Vol: 325, Pages: 1072-1073, ISSN: 0036-8075
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- Citations: 2
Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, et al., 2009, Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings, SCIENCE, Vol: 324, Pages: 1557-1561, ISSN: 0036-8075
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- Citations: 1393
Baggaley RF, Petersen ML, Soares MA, et al., 2009, Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Resistance to antiretroviral drugs in developing countries, Antimicrobial Resistance in Developing Countries, Editors: Sosa, Byarugaba, Amábile-Cuevas, Sosa, Byarugaba, Amábile-Cuevas, Publisher: Springer, Pages: 73-94, ISBN: 9780387893693
Scattered literature is available in various forms in journals that are often not easily accessible to the affected developing countries.The objective of the ...
Baggaley RF, Griffin JT, Chapman R, et al., 2009, Estimating the public health impact of the effect of herpes simplex virus suppressive therapy on plasma HIV-1 viral load, AIDS, Vol: 23, Pages: 1005-1013, ISSN: 0269-9370
Objective: Trials of herpes simplex virus (HSV) suppressive therapy among HSV-2/HIV-1-infected individuals have reported an impacton plasma HIV-1 viral loads(PVLs). Our aim was to estimate the population-level impact of suppressive therapy on female-to-male HIV-1 sexual transmission.Design and methods: By comparing prerandomization and postrandomization individual-level PVL data from the first two HSV suppressive therapy randomized controlled trials in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated the effect of treatment on duration of asymptomatic infection and number of HIV-1 transmission events for each trial.Results: Assuming that a reduction in PVL is accompanied by an increased duration of HIV-1 asymptomatic infection, 4-6 years of HSV suppressive therapy produce a 1-year increase in the duration of this stage. To avert one HIV-1 transmission requires 8.8 [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.9-14.9] and 11.4 (95% Cl, 7.8-27.5) women to be treated from halfway through their HIV-1 asymptomatic period, using results from Burkina Faso and South African trials, respectively. Regardless of the timing of treatment initiation, 51.6 (95% Cl, 30.4-137.0) and 66.5 (95% Cl, 36.7-222.6) treatment-years are required to avert one HIV-1 infection. Distributions of set-point PVL values from sub-Saharan African populations suggest that unintended adverse consequences of therapy at the population level (i.e. increased HIV-1 transmission due to increased duration of infection) are unlikely to occur in these settings.Conclusion: HSV suppressive therapy may avert relatively few HIV-1 transmission events per person-year of treatment. Its use as a prevention intervention may be limited; however, further research into its effect on rate of CD4 cell count decline and the impact of higher dosing schedules is warranted. (C) 2009 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
Boily M-C, Baggaley RF, Wang L, et al., 2009, Heterosexual risk of HIV-1 infection per sexual act: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies, LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 9, Pages: 118-129, ISSN: 1473-3099
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- Citations: 607
Garnett GP, Baggaley RF, 2009, Treating our way out of the HIV pandemic: could we, would we, should we?, LANCET, Vol: 373, Pages: 9-11, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 69
Christophe Fraser, Christl AD, Cauchemez S, et al., 2009, Response, Science, Vol: 325, Pages: 1072-1073, ISSN: 0036-8075
Baggaley RF, White RG, Boily M-C, 2008, Systematic review of orogenital HIV-1 transmission probabilities, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 37, Pages: 1255-1265, ISSN: 1464-3685
Background The objective was to assess the risk of HIV transmission from orogenital intercourse (OI).Methods Systematic review of the literature on HIV-1 infectiousness through OI conducted according to MOOSE guidelines for reviews of observational studies. The PubMed database and bibliographies of relevant articles were searched to July 2007.Results Of the titles, 56 214 were searched from which 10 potentially appropriate studies were identified; two additional studies were identified through bibliographies and one through discussion with experts. There were 10 included studies, providing estimates of transmission probabilities per-partner (n = 5), incidence per-partner (n = 3), per-study participant (n = 3, following initially seronegative individuals whose partners are of unknown serostatus) and per-act (n = 3). Only four of 10 studies reported non-zero estimates: two per-partner estimates (20%, 95% CI: 6–51, n = 10 and a model-based estimate, 1%, range 0.85–2.3%), one per-study participant estimate (0.37%, 95% CI: 0.10–1.34%) and one per-act estimate (0.04%, 95% CI: 0.01–0.17%). Upper bounds for the 95% CI for zero estimates tended to be relatively large due to the small study sample sizes: 9.0, 12.1 and 2.8% for per-partner; 4.7, 9.6 and 1.8 per 100 person-years for incidence per-partner; 4.4% per-study participant and 0.45 and 0.02% for per-act. Given the small number of studies, a meta-analysis was not considered appropriate.Conclusions There are currently insufficient data to estimate precisely the risk from OI exposure. The low risk of transmission evident from identified studies means that more and larger studies would be required to provide sufficient evidence to derive more precise estimates.
Bell JS, Ouedraogo M, Ganaba R, et al., 2008, The epidemiology of pregnancy outcomes in rural Burkina Faso, TROPICAL MEDICINE & INTERNATIONAL HEALTH, Vol: 13, Pages: 31-43, ISSN: 1360-2276
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- Citations: 26
Storeng KT, Baggaley RF, Ganaba R, et al., 2008, Paying the price: The cost and consequences of emergency obstetric care in Burkina Faso, SOCIAL SCIENCE & MEDICINE, Vol: 66, Pages: 545-557, ISSN: 0277-9536
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- Citations: 113
Filippi V, Ganaba R, Baggaley RF, et al., 2007, Health of women after severe obstetric complications in Burkina Faso:: a longitudinal study, LANCET, Vol: 370, Pages: 1329-1337, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 95
Baggaley RF, Ganaba R, Filippi V, et al., 2007, Detecting depression after pregnancy:: the validity of the K10 and K6 in Burkina Faso, TROPICAL MEDICINE & INTERNATIONAL HEALTH, Vol: 12, Pages: 1225-1229, ISSN: 1360-2276
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- Citations: 80
White RG, Cooper BS, Kedhar A, et al., 2007, Quantifying HIV-1 transmission due to contaminated injections, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 104, Pages: 9794-9799, ISSN: 0027-8424
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- Citations: 19
Collin SM, Baggaley RF, Pittrof R, et al., 2007, Could a simple antenatal package combining micronutritional supplementation with presumptive treatment of infection prevent maternal deaths in sub-Saharan Africa?, BMC Pregnancy Childbirth, Vol: 7
BACKGROUND: Reducing maternal mortality is a key goal of international development. Our objective was to determine the potential impact on maternal mortality across sub-Saharan Africa of a combination of dietary supplementation and presumptive treatment of infection during pregnancy. Our aim was to demonstrate the importance of antenatal interventions in the fight against maternal mortality, and to stimulate debate about the design of an effective antenatal care package which could be delivered at the lowest level of the antenatal health system or at community level. METHODS: We collated evidence for the effectiveness of antenatal interventions from systematic reviews and controlled trials, and we selected interventions which have demonstrated potential to prevent maternal deaths. We used a model-based analysis to estimate the total reduction in maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa which could be achieved by combining these interventions into a single package, based on a WHO systematic review of causes of maternal deaths. RESULTS: Severe hypertensive disorders, puerperal sepsis and anemia are causes of maternal deaths which could be prevented to some extent by prophylactic measures during pregnancy. A package of pills comprising calcium and iron supplements and appropriate anti-microbial and anti-malarial drugs could reduce maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa by 8% (range <1% to 20%). This estimate is based on Cochrane Review estimates for the effectiveness of daily calcium supplements in reducing the risk of death/serious morbidity due to hypertensive disorders (RR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.97), anti-microbial prophylaxis in reducing the odds of puerperal sepsis/postpartum endometritis (OR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.23-1.06), anti-malarial prophylaxis in reducing the risk of severe antenatal anemia (RR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.50-0.78), and iron supplementation in reducing the risk of iron deficiency anemia at term (RR = 0.33, 95% CI 0.16-0.69). CONCLUSION: Maternal mortalit
Lopman BA, French KM, Baggaley R, et al., 2006, HIV-contaminated syringes are not evidence of transmission, AIDS, Vol: 20, Pages: 1905-1905, ISSN: 0269-9370
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- Citations: 4
Baggaley RF, Boily MC, White RG, et al., 2006, Risk of HIV-1 transmission for parenteral exposure and blood transfusion: a systematic review and meta-analysis, AIDS, Vol: 20, Pages: 805-812, ISSN: 0269-9370
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- Citations: 139
Baggaley RF, Garnett GP, Ferguson NM, 2006, Modelling the impact of antiretroviral use in resource-poor settings, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 3, Pages: 493-504, ISSN: 1549-1277
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- Citations: 127
Baggaley RF, Solomon AW, Kuper H, et al., 2006, Distance to water source and altitude in relation to active trachoma in Rombo district, Tanzania, TROPICAL MEDICINE & INTERNATIONAL HEALTH, Vol: 11, Pages: 220-227, ISSN: 1360-2276
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- Citations: 42
Lopman BA, French KM, Baggaley R, et al., 2006, HIV-contaminated syringes are not evidence of transmission., AIDS, Vol: 20
Baggaley RF, Ferguson NM, Garnett GP, 2005, The epidemiological impact of antiretroviral use predicted by mathematical models: a review., Emerg Themes Epidemiol, Vol: 2
This review summarises theoretical studies attempting to assess the population impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use on mortality and HIV incidence. We describe the key parameters that determine the impact of therapy, and argue that mathematical models of disease transmission are the natural framework within which to explore the interaction between antiviral use and the dynamics of an HIV epidemic. Our review focuses on the potential effects of ART in resource-poor settings. We discuss choice of model type and structure, the potential for risk behaviour change following widespread introduction of ART, the importance of the stage of HIV infection at which treatment is initiated, and the potential for spread of drug resistance. These issues are illustrated with results from models of HIV transmission. We demonstrate that HIV transmission models predicting the impact of ART use should incorporate a realistic progression through stages of HIV infection in order to capture the effect of the timing of treatment initiation on disease spread. The realism of existing models falls short of properly reproducing patterns of diagnosis timing, incorporating heterogeneity in sexual behaviour, and describing the evolution and transmission of drug resistance. The uncertainty surrounding certain effects of ART, such as changes in sexual behaviour and transmission of ART-resistant HIV strains, demands exploration of best and worst case scenarios in modelling, but this must be complemented by surveillance and behavioural surveys to quantify such effects in settings where ART is implemented.
Sigxashe TA, Baggaley R, Mathews C, 2001, Attitudes to disclosure of HIV status to sexual partners, South African Medical Journal, Vol: 91, Pages: 908-909, ISSN: 0256-9574
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- Citations: 10
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