Imperial College London
Dr Romain Silhol

DrRomainSilhol

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

r.silhol

 
 
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Location

 

School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Silhol:2011:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002105,
author = {Silhol, R and Boelle, P-Y},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002105},
journal = {PLoS Computational Biology},
pages = {1--9},
title = {Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002105},
volume = {7},
year = {2011}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Realistic, individual-based models based on detailed census data are increasingly used to study disease transmission. Whether the rich structure of such models improves predictions is debated. This is studied here for the spread of varicella, a childhood disease, in a realistic population of children where infection occurs in the household, at school, or in the community at large. A methodology is first presented for simulating households with births and aging. Transmission probabilities were fitted for schools and community, which reproduced the overall cumulative incidence of varicella over the age range of 0–11 years old.Moreover, the individual-based model structure allowed us to reproduce several observed features of VZV epidemiology which were not included as hypotheses in the model: the age at varicella in first-born children was older than in other children, in accordance with observation; the same was true for children residing in rural areas. Model predicted incidence was comparable to observed incidence over time. These results show that models based on detailed census data on a small scale provide valid small scale prediction. By simulating several scenarios, we evaluate how varicella epidemiology is shaped by policies, such as age at first school enrolment, and school eviction. This supports the use of such models for investigating outcomes of public health measures.
AU  - Silhol,R
AU  - Boelle,P-Y
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002105
EP  - 9
PY  - 2011///
SN  - 1553-734X
SP  - 1
TI  - Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella
T2  - PLoS Computational Biology
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002105
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000293333200012&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002105
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/84160
VL  - 7
ER  -
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