Imperial College London
Dr Romain Silhol

DrRomainSilhol

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

r.silhol

 
 
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Location

 

School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Silhol:2021:10.1097/QAI.0000000000002663,
author = {Silhol, R and Geidelberg, L and Mitchell, K and Mishra, S and Dimitrov, D and Bowring, A and Behanzin, L and Guedou, F and Diabate, S and Schwartz, S and Billong, S and Mfochive, Njindam I and Levitt, D and Mukandavire, C and Maheu-Giroux, M and Rönn, M and Dalal, S and Vickerman, P and Baral, S and Alary, M and Boily, M-C},
doi = {10.1097/QAI.0000000000002663},
journal = {JAIDS: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes},
pages = {899--911},
title = {Assessing the potential impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV among key and lower-risk populations in the largest cities of Cameroon and Benin},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAI.0000000000002663},
volume = {87},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background: The COVID-19 pandemic indirectly impacts HIV epidemiology in Central/West Africa. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV prevention/treatment services and sexual partnerships on HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths among key populations including female sex workers (FSW), their clients, men who have sex with men (MSM), and overall.Setting: Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Cotonou (Benin).Methods: We used mathematical models of HIV calibrated to city- and risk-population-specific demographic/behavioural/epidemic data. We estimated the relative change in 1-year HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths for various disruption scenarios of HIV prevention/treatment services and decreased casual/commercial partnerships, compared to a scenario without COVID-19.Results: A 50% reduction in condom use in all partnerships over 6 months would increase 1-year HIV incidence by 39%, 42%, 31% and 23% among MSM, FSW, clients, and overall in Yaoundé respectively, and 69%, 49% and 23% among FSW, clients and overall respectively in Cotonou. Combining a 6-month interruption of ART initiation and 50% reduction in HIV prevention/treatment use would increase HIV incidence by 50% and HIV-related deaths by 20%. This increase in HIV infections would be halved by a simultaneous 50% reduction in casual and commercial partnerships.Conclusions: Reductions in condom use following COVID-19 would increase infections among key populations disproportionately, particularly FSW in Cotonou, who need uninterrupted condom provision. Disruptions in HIV prevention/treatment services have the biggest impacts on HIV infections and deaths overall, only partially mitigated by equal reductions in casual/commercial sexual partnerships. Maintaining ART provision must be prioritised to minimise short-term excess HIV-related deaths.
AU  - Silhol,R
AU  - Geidelberg,L
AU  - Mitchell,K
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Dimitrov,D
AU  - Bowring,A
AU  - Behanzin,L
AU  - Guedou,F
AU  - Diabate,S
AU  - Schwartz,S
AU  - Billong,S
AU  - Mfochive,Njindam I
AU  - Levitt,D
AU  - Mukandavire,C
AU  - Maheu-Giroux,M
AU  - Rönn,M
AU  - Dalal,S
AU  - Vickerman,P
AU  - Baral,S
AU  - Alary,M
AU  - Boily,M-C
DO  - 10.1097/QAI.0000000000002663
EP  - 911
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1525-4135
SP  - 899
TI  - Assessing the potential impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV among key and lower-risk populations in the largest cities of Cameroon and Benin
T2  - JAIDS: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAI.0000000000002663
UR  - https://journals.lww.com/jaids/Abstract/9000/Assessing_the_potential_impact_of_disruptions_due.95920.aspx
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85979
VL  - 87
ER  -
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