Imperial College London
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DrRaphaelSlade

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Centre for Environmental Policy

Snr Research Fellow (IPCC Working Group III Head of TSU Sci)
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 7306r.slade

 
 
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Location

 

405Weeks BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Speirs:2015:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.031,
author = {Speirs, J and McGlade, C and Slade, R},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.031},
journal = {Energy Policy},
pages = {654--664},
title = {Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.031},
volume = {87},
year = {2015}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Energy policies are strongly influenced by resource availability and recoverability estimates. Yet these estimates are often highly uncertain, frequently incommensurable, and regularly contested. This paper explores how the uncertainties surrounding estimates of the availability of fossil fuels, biomass and critical metals are conceptualised and communicated. The contention is that a better understanding of the uncertainties surrounding resource estimates for both conventional and renewable energy resources can contribute to more effective policy decision making in the long term. Two complementary approaches for framing uncertainty are considered in detail: a descriptive typology of uncertainties and a framework that conceptualises uncertainty as alternative states of incomplete knowledge. Both have the potential to be useful analytical and communication tools. For the three resource types considered here we find that data limitations, inconsistent definitions and the use of incommensurable methodologies present a pervasive problem that impedes comparison. Many aspects of resource uncertainty are also not commonly captured in the conventional resource classification schemes. This highlights the need for considerable care when developing and comparing aggregate resource estimates and when using these to inform strategic energy policy decisions.
AU  - Speirs,J
AU  - McGlade,C
AU  - Slade,R
DO  - 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.031
EP  - 664
PY  - 2015///
SN  - 0301-4215
SP  - 654
TI  - Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass
T2  - Energy Policy
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.031
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/40013
VL  - 87
ER  -
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