Imperial College London
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Professor Reiko J. Tanaka

Faculty of Engineering, Department of Bioengineering

Professor of Computational Systems Biology & Medicine
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 6374r.tanaka Website

 
 
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Location

 

RSM 3.10Royal School of MinesSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Hurault:2021:10.1002/clt2.12019,
author = {Hurault, G and Delorieux, V and Kim, Y-M and Ahn, K and Williams, HC and Tanaka, R},
doi = {10.1002/clt2.12019},
journal = {Clinical and Translational Allergy},
title = {Impact of environmental factors in predicting daily severity scores of atopic dermatitis},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/clt2.12019},
volume = {11},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundAtopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin disease that affects 20% of children worldwide. Environmental factors including weather and air pollutants have been shown to be associated with AD symptoms. However, the time-dependent nature of such a relationship has not been adequately investigated. This paper aims to assess whether real-time data on weather and air pollutants can make short-term prediction of AD severity scores.MethodsUsing longitudinal data from a published panel study of 177 paediatric patients followed up daily for 17 months, we developed a statistical machine learning model to predict daily AD severity scores for individual study participants. Exposures consisted of daily meteorological variables and concentrations of air pollutants, and outcomes were daily recordings of scores for six AD signs. We developed a mixed-effect autoregressive ordinal logistic regression model, validated it in a forward-chaining setting and evaluated the effects of the environmental factors on the predictive performance.ResultsOur model successfully made daily prediction of the AD severity scores, and the predictive performance was not improved by the addition of measured environmental factors. Potential short-term influence of environmental exposures on daily AD severity scores was outweighed by the underlying persistence of preceding scores.ConclusionsOur data does not offer enough evidence to support a claim that weather or air pollutants can make short-term prediction of AD signs. Inferences about the magnitude of the effect of environmental factors on AD severity scores require consideration of their time-dependent dynamic nature.
AU  - Hurault,G
AU  - Delorieux,V
AU  - Kim,Y-M
AU  - Ahn,K
AU  - Williams,HC
AU  - Tanaka,R
DO  - 10.1002/clt2.12019
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2045-7022
TI  - Impact of environmental factors in predicting daily severity scores of atopic dermatitis
T2  - Clinical and Translational Allergy
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/clt2.12019
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/88934
VL  - 11
ER  -
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