Publications
104 results found
Dejnirattisai W, Huo J, Zhou D, et al., 2022, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-B.1.1.529 leads to widespread escape from neutralizing antibody responses, Cell, Vol: 185, Pages: 467-484.e15, ISSN: 0092-8674
On 24th November 2021, the sequence of a new SARS-CoV-2 viral isolate Omicron-B.1.1.529 was announced, containing far more mutations in Spike (S) than previously reported variants. Neutralization titers of Omicron by sera from vaccinees and convalescent subjects infected with early pandemic Alpha, Beta, Gamma, or Delta are substantially reduced, or the sera failed to neutralize. Titers against Omicron are boosted by third vaccine doses and are high in both vaccinated individuals and those infected by Delta. Mutations in Omicron knock out or substantially reduce neutralization by most of the large panel of potent monoclonal antibodies and antibodies under commercial development. Omicron S has structural changes from earlier viruses and uses mutations that confer tight binding to ACE2 to unleash evolution driven by immune escape. This leads to a large number of mutations in the ACE2 binding site and rebalances receptor affinity to that of earlier pandemic viruses.
Sullivan MK, Lees JS, Drake TM, et al., 2022, Acute kidney injury in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK Study: a prospective, multicentre cohort study., Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation, Vol: 37, Pages: 271-284, ISSN: 0931-0509
BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study investigated adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and hypothesized that risk factors for AKI would include comorbidities and non-White race. METHODS: A prospective multicentre cohort study was performed using patients admitted to 254 UK hospitals with COVID-19 between 17 January 2020 and 5 December 2020. RESULTS: Of 85 687 patients, 2198 (2.6%) received acute kidney replacement therapy (KRT). Of 41 294 patients with biochemistry data, 13 000 (31.5%) had biochemical AKI: 8562 stage 1 (65.9%), 2609 stage 2 (20.1%) and 1829 stage 3 (14.1%). The main risk factors for KRT were chronic kidney disease (CKD) [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.41: 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.81], male sex (aOR 2.43: 2.18-2.71) and Black race (aOR 2.17: 1.79-2.63). The main risk factors for biochemical AKI were admission respiratory rate >30 breaths per minute (aOR 1.68: 1.56-1.81), CKD (aOR 1.66: 1.57-1.76) and Black race (aOR 1.44: 1.28-1.61). There was a gradated rise in the risk of 28-day mortality by increasing severity of AKI: stage 1 aOR 1.58 (1.49-1.67), stage 2 aOR 2.41 (2.20-2.64), stage 3 aOR 3.50 (3.14-3.91) and KRT aOR 3.06 (2.75-3.39). AKI rates peaked in April 2020 and the subsequent fall in rates could not be explained by the use of dexamethasone or remdesivir. CONCLUSIONS: AKI is common in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and it is associated with a heightened risk of mortality. Although the rates of AKI have fallen from the early months of the pandemic, high-risk patients should have their kidney function and fluid status monitored closely.
Keeling MJ, Dyson L, Guyver-Fletcher G, et al., 2022, Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number, Statistical Methods in Medical Research, ISSN: 0962-2802
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provide a key statistical tool for understanding the many quantities of interest that are not explicit in the underlying epidemiological data streams. Of these, the effective reproduction number, R, has taken on special significance in terms of the general understanding of whether the epidemic is under control (R<1). Unfortunately, none of the epidemiological data streams are designed for modelling, hence assimilating information from multiple (often changing) sources of data is a major challenge that is particularly stark in novel disease outbreaks. Here, focusing on the dynamics of the first wave (March–June 2020), we present in some detail the inference scheme employed for calibrating the Warwick COVID-19 model to the available public health data streams, which span hospitalisations, critical care occupancy, mortality and serological testing. We then perform computational simulations, making use of the acquired parameter posterior distributions, to assess how the accuracy of short-term predictions varied over the time course of the outbreak. To conclude, we compare how refinements to data streams and model structure impact estimates of epidemiological measures, including the estimated growth rate and daily incidence.
Challenger J, Foo C, Wu Y, et al., 2022, Modelling upper respiratory viral load dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, BMC Medicine, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1741-7015
Relationships between viral load, severity of illness, and transmissibility of virus, are fundamental to understanding pathogenesis and devising better therapeutic and prevention strategies for COVID-19. Here we present within-host modelling of viral load dynamics observed in the upper respiratory tract (URT), drawing upon 2172 serial measurements from 605 subjects, collected from 17 different studies. We developed a mechanistic model to describe viral load dynamics and host response, and contrast this with simpler mixed-effects regression analysis of peak viral load and its subsequent decline. We observed wide variation in URT viral load between individuals, over 5 orders of magnitude, at any given point in time since symptom onset. This variation was not explained by age, sex, or severity of illness, and these variables were not associated with the modelled early or late phases of immune-mediated control of viral load. We explored the application of the mechanistic model to identify measured immune responses associated with control of viral load. Neutralizing antibody correlated strongly with modelled immune-mediated control of viral load amongst subjects who produced neutralizing antibody. Our models can be used to identify host and viral factors which control URT viral load dynamics, informing future treatment and transmission blocking interventions.
Kundu R, Sam Narean J, Wang L, et al., 2022, Cross-reactive memory T cells associate with protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in COVID-19 contacts, Nature Communications, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2041-1723
Cross-reactive immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 have been observed in pre-pandemic cohorts and proposed to contribute to host protection. Here we assess 52 COVID-19 household contacts to capture immune responses at the earliest timepoints after SARS-CoV-2 exposure. Using a dual cytokine FLISpot assay on peripheral blood mononuclear cells, we enumerate the frequency of T cells specific for spike, nucleocapsid, membrane, envelope and ORF1 SARS-CoV-2 epitopes that cross-react with human endemic coronaviruses. We observe higher frequencies of cross-reactive (p=0.0139), and nucleocapsid-specific (p=0.0355) IL-2-secreting memory T cells in contacts who remained PCR-negative despite exposure (n=26), when compared with those who convert to PCR-positive (n=26); no significant difference in the frequency of responses to spike is observed, hinting at a limited protective function of spike-cross-reactive T cells. Our results are thus consistent with pre-existing non-spike cross-reactive memory T cells protecting SARS-CoV-2-naïve contacts from infection, thereby supporting the inclusion of non-spike antigens in second-generation vaccines.
Cuthbertson L, James P, Habibi MS, et al., 2022, Resilience of the respiratory microbiome in controlled adult RSV challenge study, European Respiratory Journal, Vol: 59, ISSN: 0903-1936
Thwaites RS, Unterberger S, Chamberlain G, et al., 2021, Expression of sterile-α and armadillo motif containing protein (SARM) in rheumatoid arthritis monocytes correlates with TLR2-induced IL-1β and disease activity, Rheumatology, Vol: 60, Pages: 5843-5853, ISSN: 1462-0324
OBJECTIVE: Cartilage and bone damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are associated with elevated IL-1β. The effects of IL-1β can be reduced by biological therapies that target IL-1β or TNFα. However, the mechanisms responsible for increased IL-1β and the effect of anti-TNFα have not been fully elucidated. Recently, sterile-α and armadillo motif-containing protein (SARM) was identified as a negative regulator of toll-like receptor (TLR) induced IL-1β secretion through an interaction with the inflammasome. This study set out to investigate SARM during TLR induced IL-1β secretion in RA peripheral blood monocytes and in patients commencing anti-TNFα treatment. METHODS: Monocytes were isolated from RA patients and healthy controls; disease activity was measured by DAS28. IL-1β secretion was measured by ELISA following TLR1/2, TLR4 and TLR7/8 stimulation. The mRNA expression of SARM, IL-1β and the components of the NOD-like receptor family, pyrin domain containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome were measured by quantitative PCR. SARM protein expression was measured by western blotting. RESULTS: TLR1/2 activation induced elevated IL-1β in RA monocytes compared with heathy controls (p= 0.0009), which negatively correlated with SARM expression (p = 0.0086). Lower SARM expression also correlated with higher disease activity (p = 0.0246). Additionally, patients responding to anti-TNFα treatment demonstrated a rapid upregulation of SARM, which was not observed in non-responders. CONCLUSION: Together, these data highlight a potential contribution from SARM to RA pathophysiology where decreased SARM may lead to elevated IL-1β associated with RA pathogenesis. Furthermore, the data additionally present a potential mechanism by which TNFα blockade can modify IL-1β secretion.
ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group, 2021, The value of open-source clinical science in pandemic response: lessons from ISARIC., Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 21, Pages: 1623-1624, ISSN: 1473-3099
Knight SR, Gupta RK, Ho A, et al., 2021, Prospective validation of the 4C prognostic models for adults hospitalised with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol, Thorax, Vol: 77, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 0040-6376
Purpose To prospectively validate two risk scores to predict mortality (4C Mortality) and in-hospital deterioration (4C Deterioration) among adults hospitalised with COVID-19.Methods Prospective observational cohort study of adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed or highly suspected COVID-19 recruited into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study in 306 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales. Patients were recruited between 27 August 2020 and 17 February 2021, with at least 4 weeks follow-up before final data extraction. The main outcome measures were discrimination and calibration of models for in-hospital deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) and mortality, incorporating predefined subgroups.Results 76 588 participants were included, of whom 27 352 (37.4%) deteriorated and 12 581 (17.4%) died. Both the 4C Mortality (0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)) and 4C Deterioration scores (pooled C-statistic 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.77)) demonstrated consistent discrimination across all nine National Health Service regions, with similar performance metrics to the original validation cohorts. Calibration remained stable (4C Mortality: pooled slope 1.09, pooled calibration-in-the-large 0.12; 4C Deterioration: 1.00, –0.04), with no need for temporal recalibration during the second UK pandemic wave of hospital admissions.Conclusion Both 4C risk stratification models demonstrate consistent performance to predict clinical deterioration and mortality in a large prospective second wave validation cohort of UK patients. Despite recent advances in the treatment and management of adults hospitalised with COVID-19, both scores can continue to inform clinical decision making.Trial registration number ISRCTN66726260.
de Silva TI, Liu G, Lindsey BB, et al., 2021, The impact of viral mutations on recognition by SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells., iScience, Vol: 24, Pages: 103353-103353, ISSN: 2589-0042
We identify amino acid variants within dominant SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes by interrogating global sequence data. Several variants within nucleocapsid and ORF3a epitopes have arisen independently in multiple lineages and result in loss of recognition by epitope-specific T cells assessed by IFN-γ and cytotoxic killing assays. Complete loss of T cell responsiveness was seen due to Q213K in the A∗01:01-restricted CD8+ ORF3a epitope FTSDYYQLY207-215; due to P13L, P13S, and P13T in the B∗27:05-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope QRNAPRITF9-17; and due to T362I and P365S in the A∗03:01/A∗11:01-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope KTFPPTEPK361-369. CD8+ T cell lines unable to recognize variant epitopes have diverse T cell receptor repertoires. These data demonstrate the potential for T cell evasion and highlight the need for ongoing surveillance for variants capable of escaping T cell as well as humoral immunity.
Wickenhagen A, Sugrue E, Lytras S, et al., 2021, A prenylated dsRNA sensor protects against severe COVID-19, Science, Vol: 374, Pages: 1-18, ISSN: 0036-8075
Evans RA, McAuley H, Harrison EM, et al., 2021, Physical, cognitive, and mental health impacts of COVID-19 after hospitalisation (PHOSP-COVID): a UK multicentre, prospective cohort study, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 1275-1287, ISSN: 2213-2600
BACKGROUND: The impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health and employment after hospitalisation with acute disease is not well understood. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of COVID-19-related hospitalisation on health and employment, to identify factors associated with recovery, and to describe recovery phenotypes. METHODS: The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a multicentre, long-term follow-up study of adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital in the UK with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, involving an assessment between 2 and 7 months after discharge, including detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was done for the primary outcome of patient-perceived recovery, with age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, comorbidities, and severity of acute illness as covariates. A post-hoc cluster analysis of outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognitive impairment, and physical performance was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach. The study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107). FINDINGS: We report findings for 1077 patients discharged from hospital between March 5 and Nov 30, 2020, who underwent assessment at a median of 5·9 months (IQR 4·9-6·5) after discharge. Participants had a mean age of 58 years (SD 13); 384 (36%) were female, 710 (69%) were of white ethnicity, 288 (27%) had received mechanical ventilation, and 540 (50%) had at least two comorbidities. At follow-up, only 239 (29%) of 830 participants felt fully recovered, 158 (20%) of 806 had a new disability (assessed by the Washington Group Short Set on Functioning), and 124 (19%) of 641 experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with not recovering were female sex, middle age (40-59 years), two or more comorbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health bur
Gu-Lung L, Drysdale SB, Snape MD, et al., 2021, Publisher Correction: Distinct patterns of within-host virus populations between two subgroups of human respiratory syncytial virus, Nature Communications, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-1, ISSN: 2041-1723
Hurst EA, Mellanby RJ, Handel I, et al., 2021, Vitamin D insufficiency in COVID-19 and influenza A, and critical illness survivors: a cross-sectional study, BMJ Open, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2044-6055
Objectives The steroid hormone vitamin D has roles in immunomodulation and bone health. Insufficiency is associated with susceptibility to respiratory infections. We report 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) measurements in hospitalised people with COVID-19 and influenza A and in survivors of critical illness to test the hypotheses that vitamin D insufficiency scales with illness severity and persists in survivors.Design Cross-sectional study.Setting and participants Plasma was obtained from 295 hospitalised people with COVID-19 (International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC)/WHO Clinical Characterization Protocol for Severe Emerging Infections UK study), 93 with influenza A (Mechanisms of Severe Acute Influenza Consortium (MOSAIC) study, during the 2009–2010 H1N1 pandemic) and 139 survivors of non-selected critical illness (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic). Total 25(OH)D was measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Free 25(OH)D was measured by ELISA in COVID-19 samples.Outcome measures Receipt of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and in-hospital mortality.Results Vitamin D insufficiency (total 25(OH)D 25–50 nmol/L) and deficiency (<25 nmol/L) were prevalent in COVID-19 (29.3% and 44.4%, respectively), influenza A (47.3% and 37.6%) and critical illness survivors (30.2% and 56.8%). In COVID-19 and influenza A, total 25(OH)D measured early in illness was lower in patients who received IMV (19.6 vs 31.9 nmol/L (p<0.0001) and 22.9 vs 31.1 nmol/L (p=0.0009), respectively). In COVID-19, biologically active free 25(OH)D correlated with total 25(OH)D and was lower in patients who received IMV, but was not associated with selected circulating inflammatory mediators.Conclusions Vitamin D deficiency/insufficiency was present in majority of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 or influenza A and correlated with severity and persisted in critical illness survivors at
Lin G-L, Drysdale SB, Snape MD, et al., 2021, Distinct patterns of within-host virus populations between two subgroups of human respiratory syncytial virus, Nature Communications, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2041-1723
Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infection in young children globally, but little is known about within-host RSV diversity. Here, we characterised within-host RSV populations using deep-sequencing data from 319 nasopharyngeal swabs collected during 2017–2020. RSV-B had lower consensus diversity than RSV-A at the population level, while exhibiting greater within-host diversity. Two RSV-B consensus sequences had an amino acid alteration (K68N) in the fusion (F) protein, which has been associated with reduced susceptibility to nirsevimab (MEDI8897), a novel RSV monoclonal antibody under development. In addition, several minor variants were identified in the antigenic sites of the F protein, one of which may confer resistance to palivizumab, the only licensed RSV monoclonal antibody. The differences in within-host virus populations emphasise the importance of monitoring for vaccine efficacy and may help to explain the different prevalences of monoclonal antibody-escape mutants between the two subgroups.
Russell CD, Fairfield CJ, Drake TM, et al., 2021, Co-infections, secondary infections, and antimicrobial use in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 during the first pandemic wave from the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study: a multicentre, prospective cohort study, The Lancet Microbe, Vol: 2, Pages: E354-E365, ISSN: 2666-5247
BackgroundMicrobiological characterisation of co-infections and secondary infections in patients with COVID-19 is lacking, and antimicrobial use is high. We aimed to describe microbiologically confirmed co-infections and secondary infections, and antimicrobial use, in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.MethodsThe International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study is an ongoing, prospective cohort study recruiting inpatients from 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales, conducted by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium. Patients with a confirmed or clinician-defined high likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection were eligible for inclusion in the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study. For this specific study, we excluded patients with a recorded negative SARS-CoV-2 test result and those without a recorded outcome at 28 days after admission. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, therapeutic, and outcome data were collected using a prespecified case report form. Organisms considered clinically insignificant were excluded.FindingsWe analysed data from 48 902 patients admitted to hospital between Feb 6 and June 8, 2020. The median patient age was 74 years (IQR 59–84) and 20 786 (42·6%) of 48 765 patients were female. Microbiological investigations were recorded for 8649 (17·7%) of 48 902 patients, with clinically significant COVID-19-related respiratory or bloodstream culture results recorded for 1107 patients. 762 (70·6%) of 1080 infections were secondary, occurring more than 2 days after hospital admission. Staphylococcus aureus and Haemophilus influenzae were the most common pathogens causing respiratory co-infections (diagnosed ≤2 days after admission), with Enterobacteriaceae and S aureus most common in secondary respiratory infections. Bloodstream infections were most frequently caused by Escherichia coli a
Drake TM, Riad AM, Fairfield CJ, et al., 2021, Characterisation of in-hospital complications associated with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK: a prospective, multicentre cohort study, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 223-237, ISSN: 0140-6736
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a multisystem disease and patients who survive might have in-hospital complications. These complications are likely to have important short-term and long-term consequences for patients, health-care utilisation, health-care system preparedness, and society amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim was to characterise the extent and effect of COVID-19 complications, particularly in those who survive, using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK. METHODS: We did a prospective, multicentre cohort study in 302 UK health-care facilities. Adult patients aged 19 years or older, with confirmed or highly suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to COVID-19 were included in the study. The primary outcome of this study was the incidence of in-hospital complications, defined as organ-specific diagnoses occurring alone or in addition to any hallmarks of COVID-19 illness. We used multilevel logistic regression and survival models to explore associations between these outcomes and in-hospital complications, age, and pre-existing comorbidities. FINDINGS: Between Jan 17 and Aug 4, 2020, 80 388 patients were included in the study. Of the patients admitted to hospital for management of COVID-19, 49·7% (36 367 of 73 197) had at least one complication. The mean age of our cohort was 71·1 years (SD 18·7), with 56·0% (41 025 of 73 197) being male and 81·0% (59 289 of 73 197) having at least one comorbidity. Males and those aged older than 60 years were most likely to have a complication (aged ≥60 years: 54·5% [16 579 of 30 416] in males and 48·2% [11 707 of 24 288] in females; aged <60 years: 48·8% [5179 of 10 609] in males and 36·6% [2814 of 7689] in females). Renal (24·3%, 17 752 of 73 197), complex respiratory (18·4%, 13 486 of 73 197), and systemic (16·3%, 11 895 of 73 197) complications were
COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative, 2021, Mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19, Nature, Vol: 600, Pages: 472-477, ISSN: 0028-0836
The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-191,2, host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases3-7. They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease.
Siggins MK, Thwaites RS, Openshaw PJM, 2021, Durability of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses: (Trends in microbiology, 29, 648-662, 2021)., Trends in Microbiology, ISSN: 0966-842X
Drake TM, Fairfield CJ, Pius R, et al., 2021, Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and outcomes of COVID-19 in the ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK cohort: a matched, prospective cohort study, The Lancet Rheumatology, Vol: 3, Pages: e498-e506, ISSN: 2665-9913
Background: Early in the pandemic it was suggested that pre-existing use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) could lead to increased disease severity in patients with COVID-19. NSAIDs are an important analgesic, particularly in those with rheumatological disease, and are widely available to the general public without prescription. Evidence from community studies, administrative data, and small studies of hospitalised patients suggest NSAIDs are not associated with poorer COVID-19 outcomes. We aimed to characterise the safety of NSAIDs and identify whether pre-existing NSAID use was associated with increased severity of COVID-19 disease. Methods: This prospective, multicentre cohort study included patients of any age admitted to hospital with a confirmed or highly suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to COVID-19 between Jan 17 and Aug 10, 2020. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and secondary outcomes were disease severity at presentation, admission to critical care, receipt of invasive ventilation, receipt of non-invasive ventilation, use of supplementary oxygen, and acute kidney injury. NSAID use was required to be within the 2 weeks before hospital admission. We used logistic regression to estimate the effects of NSAIDs and adjust for confounding variables. We used propensity score matching to further estimate effects of NSAIDS while accounting for covariate differences in populations. Results: Between Jan 17 and Aug 10, 2020, we enrolled 78 674 patients across 255 health-care facilities in England, Scotland, and Wales. 72 179 patients had death outcomes available for matching; 40 406 (56·2%) of 71 915 were men, 31 509 (43·8%) were women. In this cohort, 4211 (5·8%) patients were recorded as taking systemic NSAIDs before admission to hospital. Following propensity score matching, balanced groups of NSAIDs users and NSAIDs non-users were obtained (4205 patients in each group). At hospital admission, we observed no si
Siggins MK, Thwaites RS, Openshaw PJM, 2021, Durability of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses, Trends in Microbiology, Vol: 29, Pages: 648-662, ISSN: 0966-842X
Even in nonpandemic times, respiratory viruses account for a vast global burden of disease. They remain a major cause of illness and death and they pose a perpetual threat of breaking out into epidemics and pandemics. Many of these respiratory viruses infect repeatedly and appear to induce only narrow transient immunity, but the situation varies from one virus to another. In the absence of effective specific treatments, understanding the role of immunity in protection, disease, and resolution is of paramount importance. These problems have been brought into sharp focus by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we summarise what is now known about adaptive immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and draw comparisons with immunity to other respiratory viruses, focusing on the longevity of protective responses.
Bloom CI, Drake TM, Docherty AB, et al., 2021, Risk of adverse outcomes in patients with underlying respiratory conditions admitted to hospital with COVID-19: a national, multicentre prospective cohort study using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 699-711, ISSN: 2213-2600
BackgroundStudies of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 have found varying mortality outcomes associated with underlying respiratory conditions and inhaled corticosteroid use. Using data from a national, multicentre, prospective cohort, we aimed to characterise people with COVID-19 admitted to hospital with underlying respiratory disease, assess the level of care received, measure in-hospital mortality, and examine the effect of inhaled corticosteroid use.MethodsWe analysed data from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study. All patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 across England, Scotland, and Wales between Jan 17 and Aug 3, 2020, were eligible for inclusion in this analysis. Patients with asthma, chronic pulmonary disease, or both, were identified and stratified by age (<16 years, 16–49 years, and ≥50 years). In-hospital mortality was measured by use of multilevel Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and medications (inhaled corticosteroids, short-acting β-agonists [SABAs], and long-acting β-agonists [LABAs]). Patients with asthma who were taking an inhaled corticosteroid plus LABA plus another maintenance asthma medication were considered to have severe asthma.Findings75 463 patients from 258 participating health-care facilities were included in this analysis: 860 patients younger than 16 years (74 [8·6%] with asthma), 8950 patients aged 16–49 years (1867 [20·9%] with asthma), and 65 653 patients aged 50 years and older (5918 [9·0%] with asthma, 10 266 [15·6%] with chronic pulmonary disease, and 2071 [3·2%] with both asthma and chronic pulmonary disease). Patients with asthma were significantly more likely than those without asthma to receive critical care (patients aged 16–49 years: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·20 [95% CI
ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group, 2021, COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study, Infection: journal of infectious disease, Vol: 49, Pages: 899-905, ISSN: 0300-8126
BACKGROUND: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. METHODS: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. RESULTS: 'Typical' symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. INTERPRETATION: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men.
Leclerc QJ, Fuller NM, Keogh RH, et al., 2021, Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England., BMC Health Services Research, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 1472-6963
BACKGROUND: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient's "bed pathway" - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. METHODS: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. RESULTS: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: "Ward, CC, Ward", "Ward, CC", "CC" and "CC, Ward". Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. CONCLUSIONS: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occ
Docherty AB, Mulholland RH, Lone NI, et al., 2021, Changes in in-hospital mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: a multicentre prospective observational cohort study using the WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 773-785, ISSN: 2213-2600
BACKGROUND: Mortality rates in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the UK appeared to decline during the first wave of the pandemic. We aimed to quantify potential drivers of this change and identify groups of patients who remain at high risk of dying in hospital. METHODS: In this multicentre prospective observational cohort study, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK recruited a prospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 admitted to 247 acute hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales during the first wave of the pandemic (between March 9 and Aug 2, 2020). We included all patients aged 18 years and older with clinical signs and symptoms of COVID-19 or confirmed COVID-19 (by RT-PCR test) from assumed community-acquired infection. We did a three-way decomposition mediation analysis using natural effects models to explore associations between week of admission and in-hospital mortality, adjusting for confounders (demographics, comorbidities, and severity of illness) and quantifying potential mediators (level of respiratory support and steroid treatment). The primary outcome was weekly in-hospital mortality at 28 days, defined as the proportion of patients who had died within 28 days of admission of all patients admitted in the observed week, and it was assessed in all patients with an outcome. This study is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN66726260. FINDINGS: Between March 9, and Aug 2, 2020, we recruited 80 713 patients, of whom 63 972 were eligible and included in the study. Unadjusted weekly in-hospital mortality declined from 32·3% (95% CI 31·8-32·7) in March 9 to April 26, 2020, to 16·4% (15·0-17·8) in June 15 to Aug 2, 2020. Reductions in mortality were observed in all age groups, in all ethnic groups, for both sexes, and in patients with and without comorbidities. After adjustment, there was a 32% reduction in
Ogbe A, Kronsteiner B, Skelly DT, et al., 2021, T cell assays differentiate clinical and subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections from cross-reactive antiviral responses, Nature Communications, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2041-1723
Identification of protective T cell responses against SARS-CoV-2 requires distinguishing people infected with SARS-CoV-2 from those with cross-reactive immunity to other coronaviruses. Here we show a range of T cell assays that differentially capture immune function to characterise SARS-CoV-2 responses. Strong ex vivo ELISpot and proliferation responses to multiple antigens (including M, NP and ORF3) are found in 168 PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infected volunteers, but are rare in 119 uninfected volunteers. Highly exposed seronegative healthcare workers with recent COVID-19-compatible illness show T cell response patterns characteristic of infection. By contrast, >90% of convalescent or unexposed people show proliferation and cellular lactate responses to spike subunits S1/S2, indicating pre-existing cross-reactive T cell populations. The detection of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 is therefore critically dependent on assay and antigen selection. Memory responses to specific non-spike proteins provide a method to distinguish recent infection from pre-existing immunity in exposed populations.
Gupta RK, Harrison EM, Ho A, et al., 2021, Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 349-359, ISSN: 2213-2600
BackgroundPrognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions.MethodsWe developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal–external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London).Findings74 944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31 924 (43·2%) of 73 948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal–external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66 705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [–0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than
Baumann R, Untersmayr E, Zissler UM, et al., 2021, Non-invasive and minimally-invasive techniques for the diagnosis and management of allergic diseases., Allergy, Vol: 76, Pages: 1010-1023, ISSN: 0105-4538
Allergic diseases of the (upper and lower) airways, the skin as well as the gastrointestinal tract, are on the rise, resulting in impaired quality of life, decreased productivity and increased healthcare costs. As allergic diseases are mostly tissue specific, local sampling methods for respective biomarkers offer the potential for increased sensitivity and specificity. Additionally, local sampling using non-invasive or minimally-invasive methods can be cost-effective and well tolerated, which may even be suitable for primary or home care sampling. Non- or minimally-invasive local sampling and diagnostics may enable a more thorough endotyping, may help to avoid under- or overdiagnosis, and may provide the possibility to approach precision prevention, due to early diagnosis of these local diseases even before they get systemically manifested and detectable. At the same time, dried blood samples may help to facilitate minimal-invasive primary or home care sampling for classical systemic diagnostic approaches. This EAACI position paper contains a thorough review of the various technologies in allergy diagnosis available on the market, which analytes or biomarkers are employed, and which samples or matrices can be used. Based on this assessment, EAACIs position is to drive these developments to efficiently identify allergy and possibly later also viral epidemics and take advantage of comprehensive knowledge to initiate preventions and treatments.
Yates T, Zaccardi F, Islam N, et al., 2021, Obesity, ethnicity and risk of critical care, mechanical ventilation and mortality in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19: Analysis of the ISARIC CCP-UK cohort., Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.), Vol: 29, Pages: 1223-1230, ISSN: 1071-7323
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of obesity with in-hospital COVID-19 outcomes in different ethnic groups. METHODS: Patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in the United Kingdom through the Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) developed by the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) were included from 6th February to 12th October 2020. Ethnicity was classified as: white, South Asian, black and other minority ethnic groups. Outcomes were admission to critical care, mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality, adjusted for age, sex and chronic diseases. RESULTS: 54,254 (age = 76 years; 45.0% women) white, 3,728 (57 years; 41.1%) South Asian, 2,523 (58 years; 44.9%) black and 5,427 (61 years; 40.8%) other ethnicities were included. Obesity was associated with all outcomes in all ethnic groups, with associations strongest for black ethnicities. When stratified by ethnicity and obesity status, the OR for admission to critical care, mechanical ventilation and mortality in black ethnicities with obesity were 3.91 (3.13, 4.88), 5.03 (3.94, 6.63), 1.93 (1.49, 2.51) respectively, compared to white ethnicities without obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity was associated with an elevated risk of in-hospital COVID-19 outcomes in all ethnic groups, with associations strongest in black ethnicities.
Thwaites RS, Sanchez Sevilla Uruchurtu A, Siggins MK, et al., 2021, Inflammatory profiles across the spectrum of disease reveal a distinct role for GM-CSF in severe COVID-19, Science Immunology, Vol: 6, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 2470-9468
While it is now widely accepted that host inflammatory responses contribute to lung injury, the pathways that drive severity and distinguish coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from other viral lung diseases remain poorly characterized. We analyzed plasma samples from 471 hospitalized patients recruited through the prospective multicenter ISARIC4C study and 39 outpatients with mild disease, enabling extensive characterization of responses across a full spectrum of COVID-19 severity. Progressive elevation of levels of numerous inflammatory cytokines and chemokines (including IL-6, CXCL10, and GM-CSF) were associated with severity and accompanied by elevated markers of endothelial injury and thrombosis. Principal component and network analyses demonstrated central roles for IL-6 and GM-CSF in COVID-19 pathogenesis. Comparing these profiles to archived samples from patients with fatal influenza, IL-6 was equally elevated in both conditions whereas GM-CSF was prominent only in COVID-19. These findings further identify the key inflammatory, thrombotic, and vascular factors that characterize and distinguish severe and fatal COVID-19.
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