Publications
188 results found
Shi J, Feng X, Toumi R, et al., 2024, Publisher Correction: Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves., Nat Commun, Vol: 15
Shi J, Feng X, Toumi R, et al., 2024, Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves., Nat Commun, Vol: 15
The long-term changes of ocean surface waves associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are poorly observed and understood. Here, we present the global trend analysis of TC waves for 1979-2022 based on the ERA5 wave reanalysis. The maximum height and the area of the TC wave footprint in the six h reanalysis have increased globally by about 3%/decade and 6%/decade, respectively. The TC wave energy transferred at the interface from the atmosphere to the ocean has increased globally by about 9%/decade, which is three times larger than that reported for all waves. The global energy changes are mostly driven by the growing area of the wave footprint. Our study shows that the TC-associated wave hazard has increased significantly and these changes are larger than those of the TC maximum wind speed. This suggests that the wave hazard should be a concern in the future.
Tsui EYL, Chan PW, Toumi R, 2024, Boundary layer profile of decaying and non-decaying tropical storms near landfall, Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol: 25, ISSN: 1530-261X
The vertical profile of the wind structure of translating tropical cyclones, including the associated azimuthal asymmetry, has been the subject of existing theoretical and observational studies using dropsondes. Most of these studies are based on data collected from relatively strong cyclones over the Atlantic. Here we explore the tropical cyclone boundary layer wind profile of mainly relatively weak landfalling cyclones near Hong Kong. We find that decaying tropical storms have a much larger mid- to low-level inflow angle than those that are intensifying or in steady-state. The inflow angles of intensifying, steady-state and decaying tropical storms converge towards the top of the boundary layer. The wind speed reduces through the boundary layer in a similar way in all three cases. The combination of these factors means that decaying tropical storms have stronger inflow than intensifying and steady-state ones. We attribute these local effects to remote enhanced surface friction over land when the storms are weakening.
Chen R, Toumi R, Shi X, et al., 2023, An adaptive learning approach for tropical cyclone intensity correction, Remote Sensing, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2072-4292
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are dangerous weather events; accurate monitoring and forecasting can provide significant early warning to reduce loss of life and property. However, the study of tropical cyclone intensity remains challenging, both in terms of theory and forecasting. ERA5 reanalysis is a benchmark data set for tropical cyclone studies, yet the maximum wind speed error is very large (68 kts) and is still 19 kts after simple linear correction, even in the better sampled North Atlantic. Here, we develop an adaptive learning approach to correct the intensity in the ERA5 reanalysis, by optimising the inputs to overcome the problems caused by the poor data quality and updating the features to improve the generalisability of the deep learning-based model. Specifically, we use understanding of TC properties to increase the representativeness of the inputs so that the general features can be learned with deep neural networks in the sample space, and then use domain adaptation to update the general features from the known domain with historical storms to the specific features for the unknown domain of new storms. This approach can reduce the error to only 6 kts which is within the uncertainty of the best track data in the international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) in the North Atlantic. The method may have wide applicability, such as when extending it to the correction of intensity estimation from satellite imagery and intensity prediction from dynamical models.
Toumi R, 2023, John Edward Harries, Physics Today, Vol: 76, Pages: 53-53, ISSN: 0031-9228
Li Y, Tang Y, Wang S, et al., 2023, Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions., Nat Commun, Vol: 14
Rapid intensification (RI) is an essential process in the development of strong tropical cyclones and a major challenge in prediction. RI in offshore regions is more threatening to coastal populations and economies. Although much effort has been devoted to studying basin-wide temporal-spatial fluctuations, variations of global RI events in offshore regions remain uncertain. Here, we show that compared with open oceans, where the annual RI counts do not show significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a significant increase in RI events, with the count tripling from 1980 to 2020. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments present more favorable conditions for this trend, and climate models show that global ocean warming has enhanced such changes. This work yields an important finding that an increasing threat of RI in coastal regions has occurred in the preceding decades, which may continue under a future warming climate.
Feng X, Toumi R, Roberts M, et al., 2023, An Approach to Link Climate Model Tropical Cyclogenesis Bias to Large-Scale Wind Circulation Modes, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 50, ISSN: 0094-8276
Parks RM, Kontis V, Anderson GB, et al., 2023, Short-term excess mortality following tropical cyclones in the United States, SCIENCE ADVANCES, Vol: 9, ISSN: 2375-2548
Lai T-K, Toumi R, 2023, Has there been a recent shallowing of tropical cyclones?, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 50, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0094-8276
Many aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) properties at the surface have been changing but any systematic vertical changes are unknown. Here, we document a recent trend of high thick clouds of TCs. The global inner-core high thick cloud fraction measured by satellite has decreased from 2002 to 2021 by about 10% per decade. The TC inner-core surface rain rate is also found to have decreased during the same period by a similar percentage. This suppression of high thick clouds and rain has been largest during the intensification phase of the strongest TCs. Hence, these two independent and consistent observations suggest that the TC inner-core convection has weakened and that TCs have become shallower recently at least. For this period, the lifetime maximum intensity of major TCs has not changed and this suggests an increased efficiency of the spin-up of TCs.
Gangopadhyay A, Seshadri AK, Toumi R, 2023, Beneficial role of diurnal smoothing for grid integration of wind power, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1748-9326
Li Y, Tang Y, Toumi R, et al., 2022, Revisiting the Definition of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones by Clustering the Initial Intensity and Inner-Core Size, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol: 127, ISSN: 2169-897X
- Author Web Link
- Cite
- Citations: 4
Sparks N, Toumi R, 2022, The Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Pressure Tendency on Size, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 49, ISSN: 0094-8276
- Author Web Link
- Cite
- Citations: 1
Sparks N, Toumi R, 2022, A physical model of tropical cyclone central pressure filling at landfall, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol: 79, Pages: 2585-2599, ISSN: 0022-4928
We derive a simple physically based analytic model which describes the pressure filling of a tropical cyclone (TC) over land. Starting from the axisymmetric mass continuity equation in cylindrical coordinates we derive that the half-life decay of the pressure deficit between the environmentand TC centre is proportional to the initial radius of maximum surface wind speed. The initial pressure deficit and column-mean radial inflow speed into the core are the other key variables. The assumptions made in deriving the model are validated against idealised numerical simulations of TC decay over land. Decay half-lives predicted from a range of initial TC states are tested against the idealized simulations and are in good agreement. Dry idealised TC decay simulations show that without latent convective heating, the boundary layer decouples from the vortex above leading to a fast decay of surface winds while a mid-level vortex persists.
Wang S, Toumi R, 2022, Author Correction: On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall., Sci Rep, Vol: 12
Xu H, Tian Z, Sun L, et al., 2022, Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai, NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, Vol: 22, Pages: 2347-2358, ISSN: 1561-8633
- Author Web Link
- Cite
- Citations: 6
Tsui EYL, Toumi R, 2022, Pacific subsurface temperature as a long‐range indicator of El Niño, regional precipitation, and fire, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 148, Pages: 2102-2117, ISSN: 0035-9009
The SubNiño4 index based on the subsurface potential temperature around the thermocline beneath the west Pacific warm pool, the Niño 4 region, is examined as a long-range indicator of the surface El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO-driven atmospheric response. The SubNiño4 index captures the evolution of subsurface ocean heat content between the El Niño and La Niña phases of the ENSO cycle, allowing it to serve as a long-range indicator of surface ENSO and hence also many ENSO-driven atmospheric anomalies. The SubNiño4 index has more temporally stable correlations with Niño 3.4 than the widely used western equatorial Pacific warm-water volume indicator. For a lead time of the order of 12 months, Niño 3.4 correlations afforded by the lead observed SubNiño4 index become similar to and can exceed those produced by typical dynamical ENSO predictions. The value and viability of the SubNiño4 index as a simple statistical long-range indicator of ENSO-driven atmospheric response is shown for regional precipitation anomalies throughout the Tropics and fires in Continental and Maritime Southeast Asia.
Wang S, Toumi R, 2022, An analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2397-3722
There are simple conceptual models of tropical cyclone intensification and potential intensity. However, such a framework has been lacking to describe the evolution of the outer circulation. An analytic growth model of the tropical cyclone outer size is derived from the angular momentum equation. The growth model fits a full-physics idealized tropical cyclone simulation. The lifecycle composite of the best-track outer size growth shows a strong super-linear nature, which supports an exponential growth as predicted by the growth model. The climatology of outer size growth measured by the radius of gale-force wind in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific during the period 2004–2017, can be understood in terms of four growth factors of the model: the initial size, the growth duration, the mean growth latitude, and the mean top-of-boundary-layer effective local inflow angle. All four variables are significantly different between the two basins. The observed lifetime maximum size follows a lognormal distribution, which is in line with the law of the proportionate effect of this exponential growth model. The growth model fits the observed outer size well in global basins. The time constant of the exponential size growth is approximately equal to the product of the Coriolis parameter and the mean effective inflow angle above the boundary layer. Further sensitivity experiments with the growth model suggest that the interannual variability of the global lifetime maximum size is largely driven by the variation of growth duration.
Lok CCF, Chan JCL, Toumi R, 2022, Importance of air-sea coupling in simulating tropical cyclone intensity at landfall, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol: 39, Pages: 1777-1786, ISSN: 0256-1530
An atmosphere-only model system for making seasonal prediction and projecting future intensities of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) along the South China coast is upgraded by including ocean and wave models. A total of 642 TCs have been re-simulated using the new system to produce a climatology of TC intensity in the South China Sea. Detailed comparisons of the simulations from the atmosphere-only and the fully coupled systems reveal that the inclusion of the additional ocean and wave models enable differential sea surface temperature responses to various TC characteristics such as translational speed and size. In particular, interaction with the ocean does not necessarily imply a weakening of the TC, with the coastal bathymetry possibly playing a role in causing a near-shore intensification of the TC. These results suggest that to simulate the evolution of TC structure more accurately, it is essential to use an air-sea coupled model instead of an atmosphere-only model.
Gangopadhyay A, Seshadri AK, Sparks NJ, et al., 2022, The role of wind-solar hybrid plants in mitigating renewable energy-droughts, Renewable Energy, ISSN: 0960-1481
Gangopadhyay A, Sparks NJ, Toumi R, et al., 2022, Risk assessment of wind droughts over India, Current Science, Vol: 122, Pages: 1145-1153, ISSN: 0011-3891
Wind power growth makes it essential to simulateweather variability and its impacts on the electricitygrid. Low-probability, high-impact weather events suchas a wind drought are important but difficult to identify based on limited historical datasets. A stochasticweather generator, Imperial College Weather Generator (IMAGE), is employed to identify extreme eventsthrough long-period simulations. IMAGE capturesmean, spatial correlation and seasonality in wind speedand estimates return periods of extreme wind eventsover India. Simulations show that when Rajasthan experiences wind drought, southern India continues tohave wind, and vice versa. Regional grid-scale winddroughts could be avoided if grids are strongly interconnected across the country.
Kotova L, Costa MM, Jacob D, et al., 2022, Climateurope festival: an innovative way of linking science and society, Climate Services, Vol: 26, ISSN: 2405-8807
The Climateurope Festivals were designed to create synergies between different European, national and international initiatives in the fields of Earth-system modelling & Climate Services and enhance the transfer of information between suppliers and users. It gave an opportunity to display best in class outcomes and engage in world class networking in a less rigid environment than a scientific conference.A number of formats were adopted in the Festival, from traditional impulse talks to innovative interactive sessions, and the thought-provoking discussions allowed the participants to share their experiences and knowledge around the advantages and challenges that Climate Services face within different sectors.Three Climateurope Festivals were originally planned to be held across Europe. Two Festivals were successfully organised, the first in Valencia in 2017, and the second in Belgrade in 2018. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns and travel restrictions, the third and final Festival was held online as a series of virtual web-based Festivals in 2020/2021.The Festivals were highly valued by participants. There was a strong desire by the Climateurope network to continue a science-stakeholder dialogue and make the Climateurope Festivals a regular event.
Wang S, Toumi R, 2022, More tropical cyclones are striking coasts with major intensities at landfall, Scientific Reports, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2045-2322
In this study we show that the number of annual global tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls with major landfall intensity (LI≥50 m s-1) has nearly doubled from 1982 to 2020. The lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of global major landfalling TCs has been increasing by 0.8 m s-1 per decade (p<0.05), but this significance of intensity change disappears at landfall (0.3 m s-1 per decade, p=0.69). The lack of a significant LI trend is caused by the much larger variance of LI than that of LMI in all basins and explains why a significant count change of TCs with major intensity at landfall has only now emerged. Basin-wide TC trends of intensity and spatial distribution have been reported, but this long-term major TC landfall count change may be the most socio-economic significant.
Wang S, Toumi R, 2022, On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall, Scientific Reports, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2045-2322
It remains unclear how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay from their ocean lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) to landfall intensity (LI), yet this stage is of fundamental importance governing the socio-economic impact of TCs. Here we show that TCs decay on average by 25% from LMI to LI. A logistic decay model of energy production by ocean enthalpy input and surface dissipation by frictional drag, can physically connect the LMI to LI. The logistic model fits the observed intensity decay as well as an empirically exponential decay does, but with a clear physical foundation. The distance between locations of LMI and TC landfall is found to dominate the variability of the decay from the LMI to LI, whereas environmental conditions are generally less important. A major TC at landfall typically has a very large LMI close to land. The LMI depends on the heating by ocean warming, but the LMI location is also important to future landfall TC intensity changes which are of socio-economic importance.
Wang S, Toumi R, 2021, Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes, Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2045-2322
It has been challenging to detect trends of tropical cyclone (TC) properties due to temporal heterogeneities and short duration of the direct observations. TCs impact the ocean surface temperature by creating cold wakes as a “fingerprint”. Here we infer changes of the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), size and integrated kinetic energy from the cold wakes for the period 1982–2019. We find a globally enhanced local cold wake amplitude 3 days after the LMI of − 0.12 ± 0.04 °C per decade whereas the cold wake size does not show any significant change. Multivariate regression models based on the observed ocean cooling, the TC translation speed and the ocean mixed layer depth are applied to infer LMI and TC size. The inferred annual mean global LMI has increased by 1.0 ± 0.7 m s−1 per decade. This inferred trend is between that found for two directly observed data sets. However, the TC size and the TC destructive potential measured by the integrated kinetic energy, have not altered significantly. This analysis provides new independent and indirect evidence of recent TC LMI increases, but a stable size and integrated kinetic energy.
Phillipson LM, Toumi R, 2021, A physical interpretation of recent tropical cyclone post‐landfall decay, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 48, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0094-8276
The decay of landfalling tropical cyclones is important to the damage caused. We examine a simple physically based decay model of maximum surface winds driven by frictional turbulent drag and a modification accounting for partial to complete land roughness. The model fits an algebraic decay with a parameter determined by the ratio of the surface drag coefficient to the effective vortex depth. This parameter has been decreasing from 1980 to 2018. There is also a global mean increase of wind speed 24 h after landfall of +1.13 m/s per decade. We cannot exclude the possibility that this trend is driven by the initial wind speed increase, but it is most likely due to a slowing of the decay. This weaker decay amounts to an additional 7 h of gale force winds for a typical Category 1 at landfall.
Lok CCF, Chan JCL, Toumi R, 2021, Tropical cyclones near landfall can induce their own intensification through feedbacks on radiative forcing, COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT, Vol: 2
Tsui EYL, Toumi R, 2021, Hurricanes as an enabler of Amazon fires, Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 2045-2322
A teleconnection between North Atlantic tropical storms and Amazon fires is investigated as a possible case of compound remote extreme events. The seasonal cycles of the storms and fires are in phase with a maximum around September and have significant inter-annual correlation. Years of high Amazon fire activity are associated with atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic which favour tropical cyclones. We propose that anomalous precipitation and latent heating in the Caribbean, partly caused by tropical storms, leads to a thermal circulation response which creates anomalous subsidence and enhances surface solar heating over the Amazon. The Caribbean storms and precipitation anomalies could thus promote favourable atmospheric conditions for Amazon fire.
Ke Q, Yin J, Bricker JD, et al., 2021, An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai (Jun, 10.1007/S11069-021-04853-Z, 2021), NATURAL HAZARDS, Vol: 109, Pages: 705-706, ISSN: 0921-030X
Ke Q, Yin J, Bricker JD, et al., 2021, An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai, NATURAL HAZARDS, Vol: 109, Pages: 671-703, ISSN: 0921-030X
Wang S, Toumi R, Ye Q, et al., 2021, Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Vol: 22, ISSN: 1530-261X
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.