Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorRalfToumi

Faculty of Natural Sciences, The Grantham Institute for Climate Change

Co-Director, Grantham Institute - Climate Change&Environment
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 7668r.toumi Website CV

 
 
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Location

 

713Huxley BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Camp:2019:10.1002/qj.3407,
author = {Camp, J and Roberts, MJ and Comer, RE and Wu, P and MacLachlan, C and Bett, PE and Golding, N and Toumi, R and Chan, JCL},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3407},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
pages = {105--116},
title = {The western Pacific subtropical high and tropical cyclone landfall: Seasonal forecasts using the Met Office GloSea5 system},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3407},
volume = {145},
year = {2019}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - We investigate the relationship between the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and tropical cyclone (TC) landfall in the ERAInterim reanalysis and two configurations of the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5): Global Atmosphere 3.0 (GA3) and Global Coupled configuration 2 (GC2). Both model configurations have the same horizontal and vertical resolution in the ocean and the atmosphere, but differ in terms of model physics. The WPSH strongly modulates TC activity over the subtropical western North Pacific (WNP) and TC landfall over East Asia (Japan, Korea and East China). Here we show that both model configurations GA3 and GC2 show significant skill for predictions of the WPSH and TC variability over the subtropical WNP, as well as TC frequency along the coast of East Asia, during the boreal summer (June–August). An extension of the analysis to include the full WNP typhoon season (June–November) is also examined; however, only a weak significant relationship between the WPSH index and the observed TC frequency over East Asia is found during this period, and no significant relationship is present in either GloSea5 GA3 or GC2. Results highlight the potential for operational seasonal forecasts of TC landfall risk for Japan, Korea and East China over the June–August period using predictions of the WPSH indices from GloSea5.
AU  - Camp,J
AU  - Roberts,MJ
AU  - Comer,RE
AU  - Wu,P
AU  - MacLachlan,C
AU  - Bett,PE
AU  - Golding,N
AU  - Toumi,R
AU  - Chan,JCL
DO  - 10.1002/qj.3407
EP  - 116
PY  - 2019///
SN  - 0035-9009
SP  - 105
TI  - The western Pacific subtropical high and tropical cyclone landfall: Seasonal forecasts using the Met Office GloSea5 system
T2  - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3407
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000459863300008&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/69338
VL  - 145
ER  -
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