Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorRalfToumi

Faculty of Natural Sciences, The Grantham Institute for Climate Change

Co-Director, Grantham Institute - Climate Change&Environment
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 7668r.toumi Website CV

 
 
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Location

 

713Huxley BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Smith:2021:10.1002/qj.3912,
author = {Smith, M and Toumi, R},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3912},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
pages = {166--180},
title = {A dipole of tropical cyclone outgoing long-wave radiation},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3912},
volume = {147},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Largescale (500 ≤ r ≤ 2,200 km) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and water vapour (WV) fields are investigated in satellite observations over the Pacific, linked to ERA5 reanalysis data and the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones (TC) globally. A largescale OLR dipole pattern of low and high fluxes are found in both the observations and model. As expected, a low OLR region is positioned within the TC circulation, but there is also a robust high OLR region poleward and west of the TC centre. A dry “black hole” on WV greyscale imagery occupies the same region of high OLR. Relative to the central low OLR TC signal, the typical dipole magnitude, distance and orientation of the high OLR regions are 230 W·m−2, 1,150 km, and 145° anticlockwise from east. From the reanalysis we find that the interaction between the vortex and the environmental flows produces upperlevel convergence, lowlevel divergence and subsidence throughout the troposphere in the region of high OLR. Analysis of the ECMWF model shows that the position of the high OLR region rotates anticlockwise about the TC centre as the TC moves from westward to eastward. Through use of a subensemble, we test if capturing the high OLR anomaly has a significant relationship with TC track. We apply a perfect model approach and find that subensembles that are composed of models whose largescale OLR fields closely match the target TC also have a better track. This improvement is mostly attributed to the high OLR component of the dipole.
AU  - Smith,M
AU  - Toumi,R
DO  - 10.1002/qj.3912
EP  - 180
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0035-9009
SP  - 166
TI  - A dipole of tropical cyclone outgoing long-wave radiation
T2  - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3912
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000577883500001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.3912
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85314
VL  - 147
ER  -
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