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@article{Knock:2021:10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262,
author = {Knock, ES and Whittles, LK and Lees, JA and Perez-Guzman, PN and Verity, R and FitzJohn, RG and Gaythorpe, KAM and Imai, N and Hinsley, W and Okell, LC and Rosello, A and Kantas, N and Walters, CE and Bhatia, S and Watson, OJ and Whittaker, C and Cattarino, L and Boonyasiri, A and Djaafara, BA and Fraser, K and Fu, H and Wang, H and Xi, X and Donnelly, CA and Jauneikaite, E and Laydon, DJ and White, PJ and Ghani, AC and Ferguson, NM and Cori, A and Baguelin, M},
doi = {10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262},
journal = {Science Translational Medicine},
pages = {1--12},
title = {Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262},
volume = {13},
year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modelling framework allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rteff ) below 1 consistently; if introduced one week earlier it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 (95% credible interval [95%CrI]: 15,900-38,400). The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95%CrI: 0.85%-1.21%) to 0.79% (95%CrI: 0.63%-0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95%CrI: 14.7%-35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95%CrI: 5.9%-10.3%). On 2nd December 2020 England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95%CrI: 5.4%-10.2%) and 22.3% (95%CrI: 19.4%-25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow non-pharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.
AU  - Knock,ES
AU  - Whittles,LK
AU  - Lees,JA
AU  - Perez-Guzman,PN
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - FitzJohn,RG
AU  - Gaythorpe,KAM
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Okell,LC
AU  - Rosello,A
AU  - Kantas,N
AU  - Walters,CE
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Watson,OJ
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Cattarino,L
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Djaafara,BA
AU  - Fraser,K
AU  - Fu,H
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Jauneikaite,E
AU  - Laydon,DJ
AU  - White,PJ
AU  - Ghani,AC
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Baguelin,M
DO  - 10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262
EP  - 12
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1946-6234
SP  - 1
TI  - Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England
T2  - Science Translational Medicine
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34158411
UR  - https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/13/602/eabg4262
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/90018
VL  - 13
ER  -

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