8 results found
Skea J, van Diemen R, Portugal-Pereira J, et al., 2021, Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: approaches to global energy futures compared, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol: 168, ISSN: 0040-1625
This paper compares recent global energy scenarios developed by governments, international bodies, businesses and the scientific community. We divide the scenarios into three broad classes: outlooks which extrapolate current trends and anticipate policy developments; exploratory scenarios which may consider disruptions; and normative scenarios which derive energy system pathways consistent with a long-term goal. Many organisations are starting to blend outlooks, exploratory and normative approaches. The paper covers trends in primary energy demand to 2040, snapshots of the energy mix in 2040, drivers of demand, and the evolution of scenarios projections developed in recent years. We find sharp divergences between outlooks and normative scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement on climate change. All published outlooks imply that the world is not on an energy pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement. We conclude with an assessment of emerging themes including: scenario benchmarking and group think; adaptation of scenarios to real world developments; and the plausibility of different types of scenarios. We propose that more dialogue between scenario developers from the scientific community and those working in governments and commercial organisations could be beneficial. Research focusing on the organisational processes through which scenarios are developed could usefully extend this work.
Skea J, van Diemen R, Hannon M, et al., 2019, Energy Innovation for the Twenty-First Century: Accelerating the Energy Revolution, Publisher: Edward Elgar, ISBN: 978 1 78811 261 1
This book addresses the question: how effective are countries in promoting the innovation needed to facilitate an energy transition? At the heart of the book is a set of empirical case studies covering supply and demand side technologies at different levels of maturity in a variety of countries. The case studies are set within an analytical framework encompassing the functions of technological innovation systems and innovation metrics. The book concludes with lessons and recommendations for effective policy intervention.
Shukla PR, Skea J, Calvo Buendia E, et al., 2019, IPCC, 2019: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable landmanagement, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Publisher: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Hannon M, van Diemen R, Skea, 2017, Examining the effectiveness of support for UK wave energy innovation since 2000, Examining the effectiveness of support for UK wave energy innovation since 2000: Lost at sea or a new wave of innovation?
van Diemen R, Pathak M, Correia de Oliveira de Portugal Pereira J, et al., 2017, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report Cycle, 2015 – 2022: Cities and Mitigation
Hannon M, van Diemen R, 2016, An international assessment of ocean energy innovation performance, 23rd World Energy Congress 2016
Rhodes A, van Diemen R, 2016, Has the Low Carbon Network Fund been successful at stimulating innovation in the electricity networks?, British Instutite of Energy Economics 2016: Innovation and Disruption: The Energy Sector in Transition
The physical basis of today’s electricity networks are based on engineering design principles whichhave not changed substantially since World War 2. This has led to a stable, secure but intrinsicallyconservative electricity network system, characterised by small, incremental changes andtechnological advances. However, two major drivers are currently pushing a period of substantialinnovation and change in the networks. The first of these is the need to incorporate increasingquantities of variable renewable generation at distribution level, as well as to prepare for increasinglevels of electrification in heating and transport. The second comprises the new opportunities arisingfrom the incorporation of ICT technology into the networks, including smart metering, smartappliances, demand-side participation and the development of new business models and serviceswhich facilitate active consumer engagement.These drivers challenge the notion of an electricity grid being a simple unidirectional series of wiresand transformers and make the case for a ‘smart grid’, in which information and communicationtechnologies (ICT) are integrated directly into the electricity networks. These advances have thepotential to transform the way customers and supply companies interact with electricity, and providesignificant new commercial opportunities for communications, monitoring, control and dataaggregation technologies throughout the electricity system from generation through to the consumer.New network and smart grid technologies are a major focus in the UK’s low carbon innovationstrategy, with substantial public funding (£81 million p.a) provided through the Ofgem-administeredLow Carbon Network Fund (LCNF) and its successor the Network Innovation Competition (NIC).These are novel programmes, both in the UK and elsewhere due to their structure, which involvesconsortia led by network operating companies bidding for public funds. The LCNF has recentlycompleted i
Hinchliffe S, van Diemen R, Heuberger C, et al., 2016, Transitions in Electricity Systems Towards 2030, Publisher: Institution of Chemical Engineers
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