Imperial College London

Alex Bottle

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Professor of Medical Statistics



+44 (0)20 7594 0913robert.bottle Website




3 Dorset Rise, London EC4Y 8ENCharing Cross HospitalCharing Cross Campus





Many of us rely on our local hospital, but how do we know if it's safe? Or better than the other one down the road? Every year we expect our healthcare system to treat more patients with more problems and to ever higher standards. We clearly need useable information on performance. The NHS benefits from huge but complex databases, and it's my job to help doctors, managers and patients make sense of them.

After secondment to the public inquiry into the crimes of GP Harold Shipman, I devised the statistical methodology behind the flagship information tool of our commercial partners, Dr Foster. With my analysis, this tool correctly identified Mid Staffordshire NHS Trust as having unacceptably high death rates and was a trigger for the national regulator to investigate. My research today continues to measure and monitor the quality of healthcare in hospital and in the community for patients with chronic disease, such as heart failure and COPD, or multimorbidity using databases such as HES and CPRD. My heart failure work was cited in the 2019 NHS Long-term Plan.

Among my teaching roles, I am the Academic Lead for my "Statistical Analysis with R for Public Health" specialisation that's now live on Coursera and is part of Imperial's online Global MPH. I am also on the Programme Board responsible for the degree's delivery. As a consultant since 2016, I train the UK public sector on statistical thinking and data analysis to improve staff effectiveness. 



Blackwell J, Saxena S, Petersen I, et al., 2021, Depression in individuals who subsequently develop inflammatory bowel disease: a population-based nested case-control study, Gut, Vol:70, ISSN:0017-5749, Pages:1642-1648

Roshanghalb A, Mazzali C, Lettieri E, et al., 2021, Stability over time of the "hospital effect" on 30-day unplanned readmissions: Evidence from administrative data., Health Policy

Axson E, Bottle R, Cowie M, et al., 2021, The relationship between heart failure and the risk of acute exacerbation of COPD, Thorax, Vol:76, ISSN:0040-6376, Pages:807-814

Coughlan CH, Ruzangi J, Neale FK, et al., 2021, Social and ethnic group differences in healthcare use by children aged 0-14 years: a population-based cohort study in England from 2007 to 2017., Archives of Disease in Childhood, ISSN:0003-9888

Bottle A, Faitna P, Aylin PP, 2021, Patient-level and hospital-level variation and related time trends in COVID-19 case fatality rates during the first pandemic wave in England: multilevel modelling analysis of routine data., Bmj Qual Saf

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