Publications
645 results found
Gregson S, Nyamukapa C, Lopman B, et al., 2007, Critique of early models of the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa based on contemporary empirical data from Zimbabwe, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 104, Pages: 14586-14591, ISSN: 0027-8424
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- Citations: 30
Hollingsworth TD, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM, 2007, Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics., Emerg Infect Dis, Vol: 13, Pages: 1288-1294, ISSN: 1080-6040
A small proportion of air travelers make disproportionately more journeys than the rest of travelers. They also tend to interact predominantly with other frequent travelers in hotels and airport lounges. This group has the potential to accelerate global spread of infectious respiratory diseases. Using an epidemiologic model, we simulated exportation of cases from severe acute respiratory syndrome-like and influenza-like epidemics in a population for which a small proportion travel more frequently than the rest. Our simulations show that frequent travelers accelerate international spread of epidemics only if they are infected early in an outbreak and the outbreak does not expand rapidly. If the epidemic growth rate is high, as is likely for pandemic influenza, heterogeneities in travel are frequently overwhelmed by the large number of infected persons in the majority population and the resulting high probability that some of these persons will take an international flight.
Abbas UL, Anderson RM, Mellors JW, 2007, Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Chemoprophylaxis on HIV-1 Transmission in Resource-Limited Settings, PLOS MED, Pages: 1-11
Gregson S, Adamson S, Papaya S, et al., 2007, Impact and Process Evaluation of Integrated Community and Clinic-Based HIV-1 Control: A Cluster-Randomised Trial in Eastern Zimbabwe, PLOS Medicine, Vol: 4, Pages: 545-555, ISSN: 1549-1277
BackgroundHIV-1 control in sub-Saharan Africa requires cost-effective and sustainable programmes that promote behaviour change and reduce cofactor sexually transmitted infections (STIs) at the population and individual levels.Methods and FindingsWe measured the feasibility of community-based peer education, free condom distribution, income-generating projects, and clinic-based STI treatment and counselling services and evaluated their impact on the incidence of HIV-1 measured over a 3-y period in a cluster-randomised controlled trial in eastern Zimbabwe. Analysis of primary outcomes was on an intention-to-treat basis. The income-generating projects proved impossible to implement in the prevailing economic climate. Despite greater programme activity and knowledge in the intervention communities, the incidence rate ratio of HIV-1 was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92–1.75) compared to the control communities. No evidence was found for reduced incidence of self-reported STI symptoms or high-risk sexual behaviour in the intervention communities. Males who attended programme meetings had lower HIV-1 incidence (incidence rate ratio 0.48, 95% CI 0.24–0.98), and fewer men who attended programme meetings reported unprotected sex with casual partners (odds ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.28–0.75). More male STI patients in the intervention communities reported cessation of symptoms (odds ratio 2.49, 95% CI 1.21–5.12).ConclusionsIntegrated peer education, condom distribution, and syndromic STI management did not reduce population-level HIV-1 incidence in a declining epidemic, despite reducing HIV-1 incidence in the immediate male target group. Our results highlight the need to assess the community-level impact of interventions that are effective amongst targeted population sub-groups.
Anderson RM, Plotkin S, 2007, The potential public health impact of imperfect HIV-1 vaccines., Aids Vaccine Development - Challenges and Opportunities, Editors: Koff, Kahn, Gust, Publisher: Horizon Scientific Press, Pages: 139-146, ISBN: 9781904455110
Kwong GPS, Ghani AC, Rode RA, et al., 2006, Comparison of the risks of atherosclerotic events versus death from other causes associated with antiretroviral use, AIDS, Vol: 20, Pages: 1941-1950, ISSN: 0269-9370
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- Citations: 32
Kwong GP, Ghani AC, Rode RA, et al., 2006, Comparisons of the risks of atherosclerotic events versus death form other causes associated with antiretroviral use., AIDS, Vol: 20, Pages: 1941-1950
Desai K, Boily MC, Masse B, et al., 2006, Using Transmission Dynamics Models to Validate Vaccine Efficacy Measures.Prior to Conducting HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials., Discrete Epidemiology, Editors: Abello, Cormode, Abello, Eds, Abello, Cormode, Publisher: AMS(American Mathematical Society)-, Pages: 139-162
Hollingsworth TD, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM, 2006, Will travel restrictions control the international spread of pandemic influenza?, NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 12, Pages: 497-499, ISSN: 1078-8956
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- Citations: 149
Abbas UL, Anderson RM, Mellors JW, 2006, Potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV-1 transmission and AIDS mortality in resource-limited settings, JAIDS-JOURNAL OF ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROMES, Vol: 41, Pages: 632-641, ISSN: 1525-4135
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- Citations: 60
Leung GM, Lim WW, Ho L-M, et al., 2006, Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies to SARS-coronavirus in asymptomatic or subclinical population groups, Epidemiol Infect, Vol: 134, Pages: 211-221
Gregson S, Garnett GP, Nyamukapa CA, et al., 2006, HIV decline associated with behavior change in Eastern Zimbabwe, SCIENCE, Vol: 311, Pages: 664-666, ISSN: 0036-8075
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- Citations: 257
Desai K, Boily M-C, Misse B, et al., 2006, Using transmission dynamics models to validate vaccine efficacy measures prior to conducting HIV vaccine efficacy trials, DIMACS Workshop on Data Mining and Epidemiology, Publisher: AMER MATHEMATICAL SOC, Pages: 139-161, ISSN: 1052-1798
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- Citations: 3
Donnelly CA, Riley S, Fraser C, et al., 2006, Epidemiological analysis of SARS: a novel infectious disease, Challenges of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Editors: Chan, Wong, Publisher: Elsevier, Pages: 9-30
Blower S, 2005, Modeling the potential public health impact of imperfect HIV vaccines, JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 192, Pages: 1494-1495, ISSN: 0022-1899
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- Citations: 2
van Sighem A, Danner S, Ghani AC, et al., 2005, Mortality in patients with successful initial response to highly active antiretroviral therapy is still higher than in non-HIV-Infected individuals, JAIDS-JOURNAL OF ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROMES, Vol: 40, Pages: 212-218, ISSN: 1525-4135
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- Citations: 47
Gregson S, Nyamukapa CA, Garnett GP, et al., 2005, HIV infection and reproductive health in teenage women orphaned and made vulnerable by AIDS in Zimbabwe, AIDS CARE-PSYCHOLOGICAL AND SOCIO-MEDICAL ASPECTS OF AIDS/HIV, Vol: 17, Pages: 785-794, ISSN: 0954-0121
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- Citations: 137
Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Hooper J, et al., 2005, Adherence to antiretroviral therapy and its impact on clinical outcome in HIV-infected patients, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, Vol: 2, Pages: 349-363, ISSN: 1742-5689
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- Citations: 23
Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Cox DR, et al., 2005, Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease, American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 162, Pages: 479-486, ISSN: 0002-9262
During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital.
Nishiura H, Kuratsuji T, Quy T, et al., 2005, Rapid awareness and transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hanoi French Hospital, Vietnam, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, Vol: 73, Pages: 17-25, ISSN: 0002-9637
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- Citations: 50
Donnelly CA, Bartley LM, Ghani AC, et al., 2005, Gender difference in HIV-1 RNA viral loads, HIV MEDICINE, Vol: 6, Pages: 170-178, ISSN: 1464-2662
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- Citations: 44
Anderson RM, Fraser C, Ghani AC, et al., 2005, Epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic., SARS: a case study in emerging infections., Editors: McLean, May, Pattison, Weiss, Publisher: Oxford University Press, Pages: 61-80
Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Lam TH, et al., 2005, Transmission Dynamics and Control of the Viral Aetiological Agent of SARS, SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME, Editors: Peiris, Anderson, Osterhaus, Stohr, Yuen, Publisher: BLACKWELL SCIENCE PUBL, Pages: 111-130
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- Citations: 1
Bell DM, 2004, Public health interventions and SARS spread 2003, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol: 10, Pages: 1900-1906, ISSN: 1080-6040
The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was contained largely through traditional public health interventions, such as finding and isolating patients, quarantining close contacts, and enhanced infection control. The independent effectiveness of measures to “increase social distance” and wearing masks in public places requires further evaluation. Limited data exist on the effectiveness of providing health information to travelers. Entry screening of travelers through health declarations or thermal scanning at international borders had little documented effect on detecting SARS cases; exit screening appeared slightly more effective. The value of border screening in deterring travel by ill persons and in building public confidence remains unquantified. Interventions to control global epidemics should be based on expert advice from the World Health Organization and national authorities. In the case of SARS, interventions at a country’s borders should not detract from efforts to identify and isolate infected persons within the country, monitor or quarantine their contacts, and strengthen infection control in healthcare settings.
Brooker S, Whawell S, Kabatereine NB, et al., 2004, Evaluating the epidemiological impact of national control programmes for helminths, TRENDS IN PARASITOLOGY, Vol: 20, Pages: 537-545, ISSN: 1471-4922
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- Citations: 56
Donnelly CA, Fisher MC, Fraser C, et al., 2004, Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 4, Pages: 672-683, ISSN: 1473-3099
The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics in 2002–2003 showed how quickly a novel infectious disease can spread both within communities and internationally. We have reviewed the epidemiological and genetic analyses that have been published both during and since these epidemics, and show how quickly data were collected and analyses undertaken. Key factors that determine the speed and scale of transmission of an infectious disease were estimated using statistical and mathematical modelling approaches, and phylogenetic analyses provided insights into the origin and evolution of the SARS-associated coronavirus. The SARS literature continues to grow, and it is hoped that international collaboration in the analysis of epidemiological and contact-network databases will provide further insights into the spread of this newly emergent infectious disease.
Leung GM, Chung P-H, Tsang T, et al., 2004, SARS-CoV antibody prevalence in all Hong Kong patient contacts, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol: 10, Pages: 1653-1656, ISSN: 1080-6040
A total of 1,068 asymptomatic close contacts of patients with severe acute respiratory (SARS) from the 2003 epidemic in Hong Kong were serologically tested, and 2 (0.19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus.
Ludewig B, Krebs P, Junt T, et al., 2004, Determining control parameters for dendritic cell-cytotoxic T lymphocyte interaction, EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF IMMUNOLOGY, Vol: 34, Pages: 2407-2418, ISSN: 0014-2980
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- Citations: 38
Anderson RM, Fraser C, Ghani AC, et al., 2004, Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic, Philos Trans R Soc Lond, B, Biol Sci, Vol: 359, Pages: 1091-1105
Bocharov G, Ludewig B, Bertoletti A, et al., 2004, Underwhelming the immune response:: Effect of slow virus growth on CD<SUP>8+</SUP> T-lymphocyte responses, JOURNAL OF VIROLOGY, Vol: 78, Pages: 6079-6079, ISSN: 0022-538X
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