Imperial College London

DrSeanBeevers

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Reader in Atmospheric modelling
 
 
 
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Contact

 

s.beevers

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

95 results found

Dimakopoulou K, Samoli E, Analitis A, Schwartz J, Beevers S, Kitwiroon N, Beddows A, Barratt B, Rodopoulou S, Zafeiratou S, Gulliver J, Katsouyanni Ket al., 2022, Development and Evaluation of Spatio-Temporal Air Pollution Exposure Models and Their Combinations in the Greater London Area, UK., Int J Environ Res Public Health, Vol: 19

Land use regression (LUR) and dispersion/chemical transport models (D/CTMs) are frequently applied to predict exposure to air pollution concentrations at a fine scale for use in epidemiological studies. Moreover, the use of satellite aerosol optical depth data has been a key predictor especially for particulate matter pollution and when studying large populations. Within the STEAM project we present a hybrid spatio-temporal modeling framework by (a) incorporating predictions from dispersion modeling of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter equal or less than 10 μm (PM10) and less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) into a spatio-temporal LUR model; and (b) combining the predictions LUR and dispersion modeling and additionally, only for PM2.5, from an ensemble machine learning approach using a generalized additive model (GAM). We used air pollution measurements from 2009 to 2013 from 62 fixed monitoring sites for O3, 115 for particles and up to 130 for NO2, obtained from the dense network in the Greater London Area, UK. We assessed all models following a 10-fold cross validation (10-fold CV) procedure. The hybrid models performed better compared to separate LUR models. Incorporation of the dispersion estimates in the LUR models as a predictor, improved the LUR model fit: CV-R2 increased to 0.76 from 0.71 for NO2, to 0.79 from 0.57 for PM10, to 0.81 to 0.66 for PM2.5 and to 0.75 from 0.62 for O3. The CV-R2 obtained from the hybrid GAM framework was also increased compared to separate LUR models (CV-R2 = 0.80 for NO2, 0.76 for PM10, 0.79 for PM2.5 and 0.75 for O3). Our study supports the combined use of different air pollution exposure assessment methods in a single modeling framework to improve the accuracy of spatio-temporal predictions for subsequent use in epidemiological studies.

Journal article

Kelly F, scales J, Chavda J, Dove R, Wood H, Kalsi H, Cross L, Newby C, Hall A, Keating M, Day B, Sheikh A, Eldridge S, Grigg J, Mudway I, Griffiths C, Beevers S, Wright J, Fletcher M, Keighley A, Thomson Aet al., 2021, Investigating the impact of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone on children’s health: Children’s Health in London and Luton (CHILL): Protocol for a prospective parallel cohort study, medRxiv

Journal article

Desouza CD, Marsh DJ, Beevers SD, Molden N, Green DCet al., 2021, A spatial and fleet disaggregated approach to calculating the NOX emissions inventory for non-road mobile machinery in London, Atmospheric Environment: X, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 2590-1621

The latest London atmospheric emissions inventory (2016), which is calculated using fuel consumption and construction employment, estimates that, the construction sector contributes 34% of the total PM10 emissions (the largest source), and 7% of the total NOX emissions (5th largest source). These contribute significantly to NO2 and PM2.5 pollution problems in London, which is a major concern for public health. Real-world emission factors from tail-pipe measurements were coupled to a register for construction machinery, to develop a novel ‘spatial and fleet disaggregated’ emissions inventory for the construction sector in London. This method estimated 1294 tonnes of NOX in 2018 and 1578 tonnes of NOX in 2019 from non-road mobile machinery in the construction sector, approximately 55% and 45% lower for 2018 and 2019 respectively, than the current (2016) London atmospheric emissions inventory (2850 tonnes). However, compared to the current London atmospheric emissions inventory, the new NOX emissions are higher in central London, under-estimating the importance of this source in central London. The fleet-disaggregated emissions inventory enables potential policy to be developed by focusing on high-emitters registered on the London database. As a demonstration, two emission abatement scenarios were modelled – first: by retrofitting older generators with a SCR-DPF system, a potential 53% reduction in overall NOX emissions was predicted from all NRMM; and second: by accelerating the excavator fleet-turnover – a more modest 2-tonne reduction in overall NOX emissions was predicted from all NRMM in London.

Journal article

Wang J, Alli AS, Clark S, Hughes A, Ezzati M, Beddows A, Vallarino J, Nimo J, Bedford-Moses J, Baah S, Owusu G, Agyemang E, Kelly F, Barratt B, Beevers S, Agyei-Mensah S, Baumgartner J, Brauer M, Arku REet al., 2021, Nitrogen oxides (NO and NO2) pollution in the Accra metropolis: Spatiotemporal patterns and the role of meteorology, SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, Vol: 803, ISSN: 0048-9697

Journal article

Karamanos A, Mudway I, Webb A, Lu Y, Kelly F, Dajnak D, Beevers SD, Elia C, Maynard M, Harding S, Cruickshank JKet al., 2021, Air pollution and Blood Pressure change over time in 3323 adolescents in London: differences by gender and ethnicity, Publisher: SPRINGERNATURE, Pages: 2-2, ISSN: 0950-9240

Conference paper

Newbury JB, Stewart R, Fisher HL, Beevers S, Dajnak D, Broadbent M, Pritchard M, Shiode N, Heslin M, Hammoud R, Hotopf M, Hatch SL, Mudway IS, Bakolis Iet al., 2021, Association between air pollution exposure and mental health service use among individuals with first presentations of psychotic and mood disorders: retrospective cohort study, The British Journal of Psychiatry, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 0007-1250

<jats:sec id="S0007125021001197_sec_a1"> <jats:title>Background</jats:title> <jats:p>Growing evidence suggests that air pollution exposure may adversely affect the brain and increase risk for psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia and depression. However, little is known about the potential role of air pollution in severity and relapse following illness onset.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec id="S0007125021001197_sec_a2"> <jats:title>Aims</jats:title> <jats:p>To examine the longitudinal association between residential air pollution exposure and mental health service use (an indicator of illness severity and relapse) among individuals with first presentations of psychotic and mood disorders.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec id="S0007125021001197_sec_a3" sec-type="methods"> <jats:title>Method</jats:title> <jats:p>We identified individuals aged ≥15 years who had first contact with the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust for psychotic and mood disorders in 2008–2012 (<jats:italic>n</jats:italic> = 13 887). High-resolution (20 × 20 m) estimates of nitrogen dioxide (NO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub>), nitrogen oxides (NO<jats:sub>x</jats:sub>) and particulate matter (PM<jats:sub>2.5</jats:sub> and PM<jats:sub>10</jats:sub>) levels in ambient air were linked to residential addresses. In-patient days and community mental health service (CMHS) events were recorded over 1-year and 7-year follow-up periods.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec id="S0007125021001197_sec_a4" sec-type="results"> <jats:title>Results</jats:title> <jats:p>Following covariate adjustment, interquartile range increases in NO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub>, NO<jats:sub>x</jats:sub> and

Journal article

Karamanos A, Mudway I, Kelly F, Beevers SD, Dajnak D, Elia C, Cruickshank JK, Lu Y, Tandon S, Enayat E, Dazzan P, Maynard M, Harding Set al., 2021, Air pollution and trajectories of adolescent conduct problems: the roles of ethnicity and racism; evidence from the DASH longitudinal study, SOCIAL PSYCHIATRY AND PSYCHIATRIC EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 56, Pages: 2029-2039, ISSN: 0933-7954

Journal article

Reuben A, Arseneault L, Beddows A, Beevers SD, Moffitt TE, Ambler A, Latham RM, Newbury JB, Odgers CL, Schaefer JD, Fisher HLet al., 2021, Association of Air Pollution Exposure in Childhood and Adolescence With Psychopathology at the Transition to Adulthood, JAMA NETWORK OPEN, Vol: 4, ISSN: 2574-3805

Journal article

Latham RM, Kieling C, Arseneault L, Rocha TB-M, Beddows A, Beevers SD, Danese A, De Oliveira K, Kohrt BA, Moffitt TE, Mondelli V, Newbury JB, Reuben A, Fisher HLet al., 2021, Childhood exposure to ambient air pollution and predicting individual risk of depression onset in UK adolescents, JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRIC RESEARCH, Vol: 138, Pages: 60-67, ISSN: 0022-3956

Journal article

Hicks W, Beevers S, Tremper A, Stewart G, Priestman M, Kelly F, Lanoisellé M, Lowry D, Green Det al., 2021, Quantification of non-exhaust particulate matter traffic emissions and the impact of COVID-19 lockdown at London Marylebone Road, Atmosphere, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-19, ISSN: 2073-4433

This research quantifies current sources of non-exhaust particulate matter traffic emissions in London using simultaneous, highly time-resolved, atmospheric particulate matter mass and chemical composition measurements. The measurement campaign ran at Marylebone Road (roadside) and Honor Oak Park (background) urban monitoring sites over a 12-month period between 1 September 2019 and 31 August 2020. The measurement data has been used to determine the traffic increment (roadside – background) and covers a range of meteorological conditions, seasons and driving styles, as well as the influence of the COVID-19 ‘lockdown’ on non-exhaust concentrations. Non-exhaust PM10 concentrations are calculated using chemical tracer scaling factors for brake wear (barium), tyre wear (zinc) and resuspension (silicon) and as average vehicle fleet non-exhaust emission factors, using a CO2 ‘dilution approach’. The effect of lockdown, which saw a 32% reduction in traffic volume and a 15% increase in average speed on Marylebone Road, resulted in lower PM10 and PM2.5 traffic increments and brake wear concentrations, but similar tyre and resuspension concentrations, confirming that factors that determine non-exhaust emissions are complex. Brake wear was found to be the highest average non-exhaust emission source. In addition, results indicated that non-exhaust emission factors are dependent upon speed and road surface wetness conditions. Further statistical analysis incorporating a wider variability in vehicle mix, speeds and meteorological conditions, as well as advanced source apportionment of the PM measurement data, will be undertaken to enhance our understanding of these important vehicle sources.

Journal article

Bakolis I, Hammoud R, Stewart R, Beevers S, Dajnak D, MacCrimmon S, Broadbent M, Pritchard M, Shiode N, Fecht D, Gulliver J, Hotopf M, Hatch SL, Mudway ISet al., 2020, Mental health consequences of urban air pollution: prospective population-based longitudinal survey, Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology: the international journal for research in social and genetic epidemiology and mental health services, Vol: 56, Pages: 1587-1599, ISSN: 0933-7954

PURPOSE: The World Health Organisation (WHO) recently ranked air pollution as the major environmental cause of premature death. However, the significant potential health and societal costs of poor mental health in relation to air quality are not represented in the WHO report due to limited evidence. We aimed to test the hypothesis that long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with poor mental health. METHODS: A prospective longitudinal population-based mental health survey was conducted of 1698 adults living in 1075 households in South East London, from 2008 to 2013. High-resolution quarterly average air pollution concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and oxides (NOx), ozone (O3), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm (PM10) and < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) were linked to the home addresses of the study participants. Associations with mental health were analysed with the use of multilevel generalised linear models, after adjusting for large number of confounders, including the individuals' socioeconomic position and exposure to road-traffic noise. RESULTS: We found robust evidence for interquartile range increases in PM2.5, NOx and NO2 to be associated with 18-39% increased odds of common mental disorders, 19-30% increased odds of poor physical symptoms and 33% of psychotic experiences only for PM10. These longitudinal associations were more pronounced in the subset of non-movers for NO2 and NOx. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that traffic-related air pollution is adversely affecting mental health. Whilst causation cannot be proved, this work suggests substantial morbidity from mental disorders could be avoided with improved air quality.

Journal article

Clark S, Alli AS, Brauer M, Ezzati M, Baumgartner J, Toledano M, Hughes A, Nimo J, Moses J, Terkpertey S, Vallarino J, Agyei-Mensah S, Agyemang E, Nathvani R, Muller E, Bennett J, Wang J, Beddows A, Kelly F, Barratt B, Beevers S, Arku Ret al., 2020, High-resolution spatiotemporal measurement of air and environmental noise pollution in sub-Saharan African cities: Pathways to Equitable Health Cities Study protocol for Accra, Ghana, BMJ Open, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2044-6055

Introduction: Air and noise pollution are emerging environmental health hazards in African cities, with potentially complex spatial and temporal patterns. Limited local data is a barrier to the formulation and evaluation of policies to reduce air and noise pollution. Methods and analysis: We designed a year-long measurement campaign to characterize air and noise pollution and their sources at high-resolution within the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana. Our design utilizes a combination of fixed (year-long, n = 10) and rotating (week-long, n = ~130) sites, selected to represent a range of land uses and source influences (e.g. background, road-traffic, commercial, industrial, and residential areas, and various neighbourhood socioeconomic classes). We will collect data on fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx), weather variables, sound (noise level and audio) along with street-level time-lapse images. We deploy low-cost, low-power, lightweight monitoring devices that are robust, socially unobtrusive, and able to function in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) climate. We will use state-of-the-art methods, including spatial statistics, deep/machine learning, and processed-based emissions modelling, to capture highly resolved temporal and spatial variations in pollution levels across Accra and to identify their potential sources. This protocol can serve as a prototype for other SSA cities. Ethics and dissemination: This environmental study was deemed exempt from full ethics review at Imperial College London and the University of Massachusetts Amherst; it was approved by the University of Ghana Ethics Committee. This protocol is designed to be implementable in SSA cities to map environmental pollution to inform urban planning decisions to reduce health harming exposures to air and noise pollution. It will be disseminated through local stakeholder engagement (public and private sectors), peer-reviewed publications, contribution to policy documents, media, a

Journal article

Butland BK, Samoli E, Atkinson RW, Barratt B, Beevers SD, Kitwiroon N, Dimakopoulou K, Rodopoulou S, Schwartz JD, Katsouyanni Ket al., 2020, Comparing the performance of air pollution models for nitrogen dioxide and ozone in the context of a multilevel epidemiological analysis, ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 4

Journal article

Samoli E, Butland BK, Rodopoulou S, Atkinson RW, Barratt B, Beevers SD, Beddows A, Dimakopoulou K, Schwartz JD, Yazdi MD, Katsouyanni Ket al., 2020, The impact of measurement error in modeled ambient particles exposures on health effect estimates in multilevel analysis: A simulation study, ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 4

Journal article

Desouza CD, Marsh DJ, Beevers SD, Molden N, Green DCet al., 2020, Real-world emissions from non-road mobile machinery in London, Atmospheric Environment, Vol: 223, ISSN: 1352-2310

The 2016 London atmospheric emissions inventory estimates that, the construction sector contributes 34% of the total PM10 and 7% of the total NOX – the largest and 5th largest sources, respectively. Recent on-road light duty diesel vehicle emission tests have shown significant differences between real-world NOX emissions compared with results from laboratory based regulatory tests. The aim of this study was therefore to quantify the ‘real-world’ tail-pipe NOX, CO2, and particle emissions, for 30 of the most commonly used construction machines in London under normal working conditions. The highest NOX emissions (g/kWh) were from theolder engines (Stage III-A ~4.88 g/kWh and III-B ~4.61 g/kWh), these were reduced significantly (~78%) in the newer (Stage IV ~1.05 g/kWh) engines due to more advanced engine management systems and exhaust after treatment. One Stage IV machine emitted NOX similar to a Stage III-B machine, the failure of this SCR was only detectable using PEMS as no warning was given by the machine. Higher NOX conformity factors were observed for Stage IV machines, due to the lower NOX emission standards, which these machines must adhere to. On average, Stage III-B machines (~525 g/kWh) emitted the lowest levels of CO2 emissions, compared to Stage III-A (~875 g/kWh) and Stage IV (~575 g/kWh) machines. Overall, a statistically significant (~41%) decrease was observed in the CO2 emissions (g/kWh) between Stage III-A and III-B machines, while no statistically significant difference was found between Stage III-B and IV machines. Particle mass measurements, which were only measured from generators, showed that generators of all engine sizes were within their respective Stage III-A emission standards. A 95% reduction in NOX and 2 orders of magnitude reduction in particle number was observed for a SCR-DPF retrofitted generator, compared to the same generator prior to exhaust gas after-treatment strategy.

Journal article

Smith RB, Beevers SD, Gulliver J, Dajnak D, Fecht D, Blangiardo M, Douglass M, Hansell AL, Anderson HR, Kelly F, Toledano MBet al., 2020, Impacts of air pollution and noise on risk of preterm birth and stillbirth in London, Environment International, Vol: 134, ISSN: 0160-4120

BackgroundEvidence for associations between ambient air pollution and preterm birth and stillbirth is inconsistent. Road traffic produces both air pollutants and noise, but few studies have examined these co-exposures together and none to date with all-cause or cause-specific stillbirths.ObjectivesTo analyse the relationship between long-term exposure to air pollution and noise at address level during pregnancy and risk of preterm birth and stillbirth.MethodsThe study population comprised 581,774 live and still births in the Greater London area, 2006–2010. Outcomes were preterm birth (<37 completed weeks gestation), all-cause stillbirth and cause-specific stillbirth. Exposures during pregnancy to particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) and <10 μm (PM10), ozone (O3), primary traffic air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxides, PM2.5 from traffic exhaust and traffic non-exhaust), and road traffic noise were estimated based on maternal address at birth.ResultsAn interquartile range increase in O3 exposure was associated with elevated risk of preterm birth (OR 1.15 95% CI: 1.11, 1.18, for both Trimester 1 and 2), all-cause stillbirth (Trimester 1 OR 1.17 95% CI: 1.07, 1.27; Trimester 2 OR 1.20 95% CI: 1.09, 1.32) and asphyxia-related stillbirth (Trimester 1 OR 1.22 95% CI: 1.01, 1.49). Odds ratios with the other air pollutant exposures examined were null or <1, except for primary traffic non-exhaust related PM2.5, which was associated with 3% increased odds of preterm birth (Trimester 1) and 7% increased odds stillbirth (Trimester 1 and 2) when adjusted for O3. Elevated risk of preterm birth was associated with increasing road traffic noise, but only after adjustment for certain air pollutant exposures.DiscussionOur findings suggest that exposure to higher levels of O3 and primary traffic non-exhaust related PM2.5 during pregnancy may increase risk of preterm birth and stillbirth; and a possible relationship between long-term traff

Journal article

Beevers SD, Williams ML, 2020, Traffic-related air pollution and exposure assessment, Traffic-Related Air Pollution, Pages: 137-162, ISBN: 9780128181225

This chapter begins with a simple exposure definition, then discusses air pollution’s impacts on health and associated legislation, which frames the spatial and temporal scales needed to correctly address human exposure. It goes on to discuss exposure pathways, in particular living close to transport sources and to discuss the different microenvironments to which people are exposed; car, bus, train, underground, indoor and outdoor, and whilst walking and cycling. Using examples in London and the United Kingdom, the spatial and temporal variation of NOx, NO2, PM2.5, and O3 is then described. Finally, a section on exposure assessment methods covers fixed-site monitoring, land use regression (LUR), satellite remote sensing, atmospheric dispersion models, microenvironmental and personal exposure models, and personal monitoring.

Book chapter

Petit C, Wentz E, Randolph B, Sanderson D, Kelly F, Beevers S, Reades Jet al., 2019, Tackling the challenge of growing cities: An informed urbanisation approach, Open Cities | Open Data: Collaborative Cities in the Information Era, Pages: 197-219, ISBN: 9789811366048

Two global transformative changes-rapid urbanisation and mass digital disruption-are brought together in the concept of ‘Informed Urbanisation’. This approach stands in contrast with the more common and more problematic ‘accidental urbanisation’ that is unsustainable, responsive urban growth driven by population demand and economic development. Informed urbanisation offers the means to decipher cities, comprising integral systems of networks and flows, through rigorous and comprehensive analysis of the multitude of data on housing, transport, city resilience, city migration and other aspects of urban change. In this chapter we introduce an Informed Urbanisation framework and present case studies on how it is being designed and activated in the cities of Phoenix, London and Sydney.

Book chapter

Mudway IS, Dundas I, Wood HE, Marlin N, Jamaludin JB, Bremner SA, Cross L, Grieve A, Nanzer A, Barratt BM, Beevers S, Dajnak D, Fuller GW, Font A, Colligan G, Sheikh A, Walton R, Grigg J, Kelly FJ, Lee TH, Griffiths CJet al., 2019, Impact of London's low emission zone on air quality and children's respiratory health, The Lancet Public Health, Vol: 4, Pages: e28-e40, ISSN: 2468-2667

BACKGROUND: Low emission zones (LEZ) are an increasingly common, but unevaluated, intervention aimed at improving urban air quality and public health. We investigated the impact of London's LEZ on air quality and children's respiratory health.METHODS: We did a sequential annual cross-sectional study of 2164 children aged 8-9 years attending primary schools between 2009-10 and 2013-14 in central London, UK, following the introduction of London's LEZ in February, 2008. We examined the association between modelled pollutant exposures of nitrogen oxides (including nitrogen dioxide [NO2]) and particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and less than 10 μm (PM10) and lung function: postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1, primary outcome), forced vital capacity (FVC), and respiratory or allergic symptoms. We assigned annual exposures by each child's home and school address, as well as spatially resolved estimates for the 3 h (0600-0900 h), 24 h, and 7 days before each child's assessment, to isolate long-term from short-term effects.FINDINGS: The percentage of children living at addresses exceeding the EU limit value for annual NO2 (40 μg/m3) fell from 99% (444/450) in 2009 to 34% (150/441) in 2013. Over this period, we identified a reduction in NO2 at both roadside (median -1·35 μg/m3 per year; 95% CI -2·09 to -0·61; p=0·0004) and background locations (-0·97; -1·56 to -0·38; p=0·0013), but not for PM10. The effect on PM2·5 was equivocal. We found no association between postbronchodilator FEV1 and annual residential pollutant attributions. By contrast, FVC was inversely correlated with annual NO2 (-0·0023 L/μg per m3; -0·0044 to -0·0002; p=0·033) and PM10 (-0·0090 L/μg per m3; -0·0175 to -0·0005; p=0·038).INTERPRETATION: Within London's LEZ, a smaller lung volume in children was associated

Journal article

Newbury JB, Arseneault L, Beevers S, Kitwiroon N, Roberts S, Pariante CM, Kelly FJ, Fisher HLet al., 2019, Association of Air Pollution Exposure With Psychotic Experiences During Adolescence, JAMA Psychiatry, Vol: 76, Pages: 614-623, ISSN: 2168-622X

Importance Urbanicity is a well-established risk factor for clinical (eg, schizophrenia) and subclinical (eg, hearing voices and paranoia) expressions of psychosis. To our knowledge, no studies have examined the association of air pollution with adolescent psychotic experiences, despite air pollution being a major environmental problem in cities.Objectives To examine the association between exposure to air pollution and adolescent psychotic experiences and test whether exposure mediates the association between urban residency and adolescent psychotic experiences.Design, Setting, and Participants The Environmental-Risk Longitudinal Twin Study is a population-based cohort study of 2232 children born during the period from January 1, 1994, through December 4, 1995, in England and Wales and followed up from birth through 18 years of age. The cohort represents the geographic and socioeconomic composition of UK households. Of the original cohort, 2066 (92.6%) participated in assessments at 18 years of age, of whom 2063 (99.9%) provided data on psychotic experiences. Generation of the pollution data was completed on October 4, 2017, and data were analyzed from May 4 to November 21, 2018.Exposures High-resolution annualized estimates of exposure to 4 air pollutants—nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters of less than 2.5 (PM2.5) and less than 10 μm (PM10)—were modeled for 2012 and linked to the home addresses of the sample plus 2 commonly visited locations when the participants were 18 years old.Main Outcomes and Measures At 18 years of age, participants were privately interviewed regarding adolescent psychotic experiences. Urbanicity was estimated using 2011 census data.Results Among the 2063 participants who provided data on psychotic experiences, sex was evenly distributed (52.5% female). Six hundred twenty-three participants (30.2%) had at least 1 psychotic experience from 12 to 18 years of ag

Journal article

Carey IM, Anderson HR, Atkinson RW, Beevers SD, Cook DG, Strachan DP, Dajnak D, Gulliver J, Kelly FJet al., 2018, Are noise and air pollution related to the incidence of dementia? A cohort study in London, England, BMJ Open, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2044-6055

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the incidence of dementia is related to residential levels of air and noise pollution in London. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using primary care data. SETTING: 75 Greater London practices. PARTICIPANTS: 130 978 adults aged 50-79 years registered with their general practices on 1 January 2005, with no recorded history of dementia or care home residence. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: A first recorded diagnosis of dementia and, where specified, subgroups of Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia during 2005-2013. The average annual concentrations during 2004 of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter with a median aerodynamic diameter </=2.5 microm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) were estimated at 20x20 m resolution from dispersion models. Traffic intensity, distance from major road and night-time noise levels (Lnight) were estimated at the postcode level. All exposure measures were linked anonymously to clinical data via residential postcode. HRs from Cox models were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, smoking and body mass index, with further adjustments explored for area deprivation and comorbidity. RESULTS: 2181 subjects (1.7%) received an incident diagnosis of dementia (39% mentioning Alzheimer's disease, 29% vascular dementia). There was a positive exposure response relationship between dementia and all measures of air pollution except O3, which was not readily explained by further adjustment. Adults living in areas with the highest fifth of NO2 concentration (>41.5 microg/m(3)) versus the lowest fifth (<31.9 microg/m(3)) were at a higher risk of dementia (HR=1.40, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.74). Increases in dementia risk were also observed with PM2.5, PM2.5 specifically from primary traffic sources only and Lnight, but only NO2 and PM2.5 remained statistically significant in multipollutant models. Associations were more consistent for Alzheimer's disease than vascular dementia. CONCLUSIONS: We have found evidence of a

Journal article

Moore E, Lewis A, hashmi M, sultana K, wright M, smeeth L, chatzidiakou L, jones R, beevers S, Kolozali S, kelly F, barratt B, Quint JKet al., 2018, Recruitment of patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) for research, npj Primary Care Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 28, ISSN: 2055-1010

Databases of electronic health records (EHR) are not only a valuable source of data for health research but have also recently been used as a medium through which potential study participants can be screened, located and approached to take part in research. The aim was to assess whether it is feasible and practical to screen, locate and approach patients to take part in research through the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). This is a cohort study in primary care. The CPRD anonymised EHR database was searched to screen patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) to take part in a research study. The potential participants were contacted via their General Practitioner (GP) who confirmed their eligibility. Eighty two practices across Greater London were invited to the study. Twenty-six (31.7%) practices consented to participate resulting in a pre-screened list of 988 patients. Of these, 632 (63.7%) were confirmed as eligible following the GP review. Two hundred twenty seven (36%) response forms were received by the study team; 79 (34.8%) responded ‘yes’ (i.e., they wanted to be contacted by the research assistant for more information and to talk about enrolling in the study), and 148 (65.2%) declined participation. This study has shown that it is possible to use EHR databases such as CPRD to screen, locate and recruit participants for research. This method provides access to a cohort of patients while minimising input needed by GPs and allows researchers to examine healthcare usage and disease burden in more detail and in real-life settings.

Journal article

Tonne C, Milà C, Fecht D, Alvarez M, Gulliver J, Smith J, Beevers S, Ross Anderson H, Kelly Fet al., 2018, Socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities in exposure to air and noise pollution in London, Environment International, Vol: 115, Pages: 170-179, ISSN: 0160-4120

BACKGROUND: Transport-related air and noise pollution, exposures linked to adverse health outcomes, varies within cities potentially resulting in exposure inequalities. Relatively little is known regarding inequalities in personal exposure to air pollution or transport-related noise. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to quantify socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities in London in 1) air pollution exposure at residence compared to personal exposure; and 2) transport-related noise at residence from different sources. METHODS: We used individual-level data from the London Travel Demand Survey (n = 45,079) between 2006 and 2010. We modeled residential (CMAQ-urban) and personal (London Hybrid Exposure Model) particulate matter <2.5 μm and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), road-traffic noise at residence (TRANEX) and identified those within 50 dB noise contours of railways and Heathrow airport. We analyzed relationships between household income, area-level income deprivation and ethnicity with air and noise pollution using quantile and logistic regression. RESULTS: We observed inverse patterns in inequalities in air pollution when estimated at residence versus personal exposure with respect to household income (categorical, 8 groups). Compared to the lowest income group (<£10,000), the highest group (>£75,000) had lower residential NO2 (-1.3 (95% CI -2.1, -0.6) μg/m3 in the 95th exposure quantile) but higher personal NO2 exposure (1.9 (95% CI 1.6, 2.3) μg/m3 in the 95th quantile), which was driven largely by transport mode and duration. Inequalities in residential exposure to NO2 with respect to area-level deprivation were larger at lower exposure quantiles (e.g. estimate for NO2 5.1 (95% CI 4.6, 5.5) at quantile 0.15 versus 1.9 (95% CI 1.1, 2.6) at quantile 0.95), reflecting low-deprivation, high residential NO2 areas in the city centre. Air pollution exposure at residence consistently overestimated personal exposure; this overestimation varied with age

Journal article

Williams ML, Beevers S, Kitwiroon N, Dajnak D, Walton H, Lott MC, Pye S, Fecht D, Toledano MB, Holland Met al., 2018, Public health air pollution impacts of pathway options to meet the 2050 UK Climate Change Act target: a modelling study, Public Health Research, Vol: 6, Pages: 1-124, ISSN: 2050-4381

BackgroundThe UK’s Climate Change Act 2008 (CCA; Great Britain. Climate Change Act 2008. Chapter 27. London: The Stationery Office; 2008) requires a reduction of 80% in carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions by 2050 on a 1990 base. This project quantified the impact of air pollution on health from four scenarios involving particulate matter of ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3). Two scenarios met the CCA target: one with limited nuclear power build (nuclear replacement option; NRPO) and one with no policy constraint on nuclear (low greenhouse gas). Another scenario envisaged no further climate actions beyond those already agreed (‘baseline’) and the fourth kept 2011 concentrations constant to 2050 (‘2011’).MethodsThe UK Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System (UKTM) energy system model was used to develop the scenarios and produce projections of fuel use; these were used to produce air pollutant emission inventories for Great Britain (GB) for each scenario. The inventories were then used to run the Community Multiscale Air Quality model ‘air pollution model’ to generate air pollutant concentration maps across GB, which then, combined with relationships between concentrations and health outcomes, were used to calculate the impact on health from the air pollution emitted in each scenario. This is a significant improvement on previous health impact studies of climate policies, which have relied on emissions changes. Inequalities in exposure in different socioeconomic groups were also calculated, as was the economic impact of the pollution emissions.ResultsConcentrations of NO2 declined significantly because of a high degree of electrification of the GB road transport fleet, although the NRPO scenario shows large increases in oxides of nitrogen emissions from combined heat and power (CHP) sources. Concentrations of PM2.5 show a modest decrease by 2050, which would have been larger if it had n

Journal article

Williams ML, Lott MC, Kitwiroon N, Dajnak D, Walton H, Holland M, Pye S, Fecht D, Toledano MB, Beevers SDet al., 2018, The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act, a modelling study for Great Britain, Vol: 2, Pages: e202-e213, ISSN: 2542-5196

Background Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions. Methods In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM2·5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups. Findings NO2 concentrations declined leading to 4 892 000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7 178 000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO2 itself. PM2·5 concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM2·5 are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood bu

Journal article

Smith RB, Fecht D, Gulliver J, Beevers S, Dajnak D, Blangiardo M, Ghosh R, Hansell A, Kelly F, Anderson HR, Toledano MBet al., 2017, Impact of London's road traffic air and noise pollution on birth weight: retrospective population based cohort study, BMJ, Vol: 359, ISSN: 1756-1833

Objective To investigate the relation between exposure to both air and noise pollution from road traffic and birth weight outcomes.Design Retrospective population based cohort study.Setting Greater London and surrounding counties up to the M25 motorway (2317 km2), UK, from 2006 to 2010.Participants 540 365 singleton term live births.Main outcome measures Term low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age (SGA) at term, and term birth weight.Results Average air pollutant exposures across pregnancy were 41 μg/m3 nitrogen dioxide (NO2), 73 μg/m3 nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14 μg/m3 particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5), 23 μg/m3 particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM10), and 32 μg/m3 ozone (O3). Average daytime (LAeq,16hr) and night-time (Lnight) road traffic A-weighted noise levels were 58 dB and 53 dB respectively. Interquartile range increases in NO2, NOx, PM2.5, PM10, and source specific PM2.5 from traffic exhaust (PM2.5 traffic exhaust) and traffic non-exhaust (brake or tyre wear and resuspension) (PM2.5 traffic non-exhaust) were associated with 2% to 6% increased odds of term LBW, and 1% to 3% increased odds of term SGA. Air pollutant associations were robust to adjustment for road traffic noise. Trends of decreasing birth weight across increasing road traffic noise categories were observed, but were strongly attenuated when adjusted for primary traffic related air pollutants. Only PM2.5 traffic exhaust and PM2.5 were consistently associated with increased risk of term LBW after adjustment for each of the other air pollutants. It was estimated that 3% of term LBW cases in London are directly attributable to residential exposure to PM2.5>13.8 μg/m3during pregnancy.Conclusions The findings suggest that air pollution from road traffic in London is adversely affecting fetal growth. The results suggest little evidence for an independent exposure-response effect of traffic related noise on b

Journal article

Barratt B, Chatzidiakou L, Moore E, Quint J, Beevers S, Kolozali S, Kelly F, Jones R, Smeeth Let al., 2017, Characterisation of COPD exacerbations using personal environmental exposure monitoring, European-Respiratory-Society (ERS) International Congress, Publisher: EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD, ISSN: 0903-1936

Conference paper

Butland BK, Atkinson RW, Crichton S, Barratt B, Beevers S, Spiridou A, Hoang U, Kelly FJ, Wolfe CDet al., 2017, Air pollution and the incidence of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke in the South London Stroke Register: a case-cross-over analysis, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Vol: 71, Pages: 707-712, ISSN: 0143-005X

Journal article

Dajnak D, Stewart G, Beevers S, 2017, Policies for london nitrogen dioxide (NO<inf>2</inf>)compliance, Pages: 218-222

Over one tenth of the UK population live in London and since London’s air pollution concentrations are predicted to exceed legal NO2 limits until at least 2030 (DEFRA, 2015), London requires a bold combination of policies to tackle its air pollution problems. Road transport is the most significant source of NOX emissions in London with diesel vehicles the greatest contributor (TfL and GLA, 2013/2016). The current air pollution challenge, primarily caused by a shift from petrol to diesel vehicles over the last 15 years, needs to be recognised and reversed. Our study in partnership with Policy Exchange (PX), the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and Greenpeace (GP) builds on the Greater London Authority (GLA) implementation of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in 2020 (TfL, 2014). Our ambitious air quality strategy proposes a comprehensive package of measures focusing on road transport policies such as phasing out diesel cars in inner London, moving toward more sustainable road transport alternatives, restricting the most polluting vehicles entering London, cleaning up taxi and bus fleets, promoting electric vehicles and car clubs. The proposed policies (the scenario) result in large reductions in NOX emissions (45%) across London, relative to the projected outcome of the ULEZ (TfL, 2014) from the previous administration (the baseline). Our modelling results suggest significant improvement bringing nearly the whole of London into compliance with legal NO2 limits by 2025 and decreasing NO2 concentration levels below 20 μgm-3 from 16% in the baseline to nearly 36% in the scenario. This is important since there are still health impacts below the 40 μgm-3 limit value. However, some key hotspots of pollution, on major roads, still remain non-compliant and will need additional localised targeted actions. These air quality improvements are projected to have a pronounced positive effect upon health outcomes in the capital. Life expectancy for all London

Conference paper

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