Publications
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Clark S, Alli AS, Brauer M, et al., 2020, High-resolution spatiotemporal measurement of air and environmental noise pollution in sub-Saharan African cities: Pathways to Equitable Health Cities Study protocol for Accra, Ghana, BMJ Open, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2044-6055
Introduction: Air and noise pollution are emerging environmental health hazards in African cities, with potentially complex spatial and temporal patterns. Limited local data is a barrier to the formulation and evaluation of policies to reduce air and noise pollution. Methods and analysis: We designed a year-long measurement campaign to characterize air and noise pollution and their sources at high-resolution within the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana. Our design utilizes a combination of fixed (year-long, n = 10) and rotating (week-long, n = ~130) sites, selected to represent a range of land uses and source influences (e.g. background, road-traffic, commercial, industrial, and residential areas, and various neighbourhood socioeconomic classes). We will collect data on fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx), weather variables, sound (noise level and audio) along with street-level time-lapse images. We deploy low-cost, low-power, lightweight monitoring devices that are robust, socially unobtrusive, and able to function in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) climate. We will use state-of-the-art methods, including spatial statistics, deep/machine learning, and processed-based emissions modelling, to capture highly resolved temporal and spatial variations in pollution levels across Accra and to identify their potential sources. This protocol can serve as a prototype for other SSA cities. Ethics and dissemination: This environmental study was deemed exempt from full ethics review at Imperial College London and the University of Massachusetts Amherst; it was approved by the University of Ghana Ethics Committee. This protocol is designed to be implementable in SSA cities to map environmental pollution to inform urban planning decisions to reduce health harming exposures to air and noise pollution. It will be disseminated through local stakeholder engagement (public and private sectors), peer-reviewed publications, contribution to policy documents, media, a
Samoli E, Butland BK, Rodopoulou S, et al., 2020, The impact of measurement error in modeled ambient particles exposures on health effect estimates in multilevel analysis: A simulation study, ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 4
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- Citations: 11
Butland BK, Samoli E, Atkinson RW, et al., 2020, Comparing the performance of air pollution models for nitrogen dioxide and ozone in the context of a multilevel epidemiological analysis, ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 4
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- Citations: 15
Desouza CD, Marsh DJ, Beevers SD, et al., 2020, Real-world emissions from non-road mobile machinery in London, Atmospheric Environment, Vol: 223, ISSN: 1352-2310
The 2016 London atmospheric emissions inventory estimates that, the construction sector contributes 34% of the total PM10 and 7% of the total NOX – the largest and 5th largest sources, respectively. Recent on-road light duty diesel vehicle emission tests have shown significant differences between real-world NOX emissions compared with results from laboratory based regulatory tests. The aim of this study was therefore to quantify the ‘real-world’ tail-pipe NOX, CO2, and particle emissions, for 30 of the most commonly used construction machines in London under normal working conditions. The highest NOX emissions (g/kWh) were from theolder engines (Stage III-A ~4.88 g/kWh and III-B ~4.61 g/kWh), these were reduced significantly (~78%) in the newer (Stage IV ~1.05 g/kWh) engines due to more advanced engine management systems and exhaust after treatment. One Stage IV machine emitted NOX similar to a Stage III-B machine, the failure of this SCR was only detectable using PEMS as no warning was given by the machine. Higher NOX conformity factors were observed for Stage IV machines, due to the lower NOX emission standards, which these machines must adhere to. On average, Stage III-B machines (~525 g/kWh) emitted the lowest levels of CO2 emissions, compared to Stage III-A (~875 g/kWh) and Stage IV (~575 g/kWh) machines. Overall, a statistically significant (~41%) decrease was observed in the CO2 emissions (g/kWh) between Stage III-A and III-B machines, while no statistically significant difference was found between Stage III-B and IV machines. Particle mass measurements, which were only measured from generators, showed that generators of all engine sizes were within their respective Stage III-A emission standards. A 95% reduction in NOX and 2 orders of magnitude reduction in particle number was observed for a SCR-DPF retrofitted generator, compared to the same generator prior to exhaust gas after-treatment strategy.
Smith RB, Beevers SD, Gulliver J, et al., 2020, Impacts of air pollution and noise on risk of preterm birth and stillbirth in London, Environment International, Vol: 134, ISSN: 0160-4120
BackgroundEvidence for associations between ambient air pollution and preterm birth and stillbirth is inconsistent. Road traffic produces both air pollutants and noise, but few studies have examined these co-exposures together and none to date with all-cause or cause-specific stillbirths.ObjectivesTo analyse the relationship between long-term exposure to air pollution and noise at address level during pregnancy and risk of preterm birth and stillbirth.MethodsThe study population comprised 581,774 live and still births in the Greater London area, 2006–2010. Outcomes were preterm birth (<37 completed weeks gestation), all-cause stillbirth and cause-specific stillbirth. Exposures during pregnancy to particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) and <10 μm (PM10), ozone (O3), primary traffic air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxides, PM2.5 from traffic exhaust and traffic non-exhaust), and road traffic noise were estimated based on maternal address at birth.ResultsAn interquartile range increase in O3 exposure was associated with elevated risk of preterm birth (OR 1.15 95% CI: 1.11, 1.18, for both Trimester 1 and 2), all-cause stillbirth (Trimester 1 OR 1.17 95% CI: 1.07, 1.27; Trimester 2 OR 1.20 95% CI: 1.09, 1.32) and asphyxia-related stillbirth (Trimester 1 OR 1.22 95% CI: 1.01, 1.49). Odds ratios with the other air pollutant exposures examined were null or <1, except for primary traffic non-exhaust related PM2.5, which was associated with 3% increased odds of preterm birth (Trimester 1) and 7% increased odds stillbirth (Trimester 1 and 2) when adjusted for O3. Elevated risk of preterm birth was associated with increasing road traffic noise, but only after adjustment for certain air pollutant exposures.DiscussionOur findings suggest that exposure to higher levels of O3 and primary traffic non-exhaust related PM2.5 during pregnancy may increase risk of preterm birth and stillbirth; and a possible relationship between long-term traff
Beevers SD, Williams ML, 2020, Traffic-related air pollution and exposure assessment, Traffic-Related Air Pollution, Pages: 137-162, ISBN: 9780128181225
This chapter begins with a simple exposure definition, then discusses air pollution’s impacts on health and associated legislation, which frames the spatial and temporal scales needed to correctly address human exposure. It goes on to discuss exposure pathways, in particular living close to transport sources and to discuss the different microenvironments to which people are exposed; car, bus, train, underground, indoor and outdoor, and whilst walking and cycling. Using examples in London and the United Kingdom, the spatial and temporal variation of NOx, NO2, PM2.5, and O3 is then described. Finally, a section on exposure assessment methods covers fixed-site monitoring, land use regression (LUR), satellite remote sensing, atmospheric dispersion models, microenvironmental and personal exposure models, and personal monitoring.
Pettit C, Wentz E, Randolph B, et al., 2020, Tackling the Challenge of Growing Cities: An Informed Urbanisation Approach, OPEN CITIES | OPEN DATA: COLLABORATIVE CITIES IN THE INFORMATION ERA, Editors: Hawken, Han, Pettit, Publisher: PALGRAVE MACMILLAN, Pages: 197-219, ISBN: 978-981-13-6604-8
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- Citations: 5
Roberts S, Arseneault L, Barratt B, et al., 2019, Exploration of NO2 and PM2.5 air pollution and mental health problems using high-resolution data in London-based children from a UK longitudinal cohort study, Psychiatry Research, Vol: 272, Pages: 8-17, ISSN: 0165-1781
Air pollution is a worldwide environmental health issue. Increasingly, reports suggest that poor air quality may be associated with mental health problems, but these studies often use global measures and rarely focus on early development when psychopathology commonly emerges. To address this, we combined high-resolution air pollution exposure estimates and prospectively-collected phenotypic data to explore concurrent and longitudinal associations between air pollutants of major concern in urban areas and mental health problems in childhood and adolescence. Exploratory analyses were conducted on 284 London-based children from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study. Exposure to annualized PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations was estimated at address-level when children were aged 12. Symptoms of anxiety, depression, conduct disorder, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder were assessed at ages 12 and 18. Psychiatric diagnoses were ascertained from interviews with the participants at age 18. We found no associations between age-12 pollution exposure and concurrent mental health problems. However, age-12 pollution estimates were significantly associated with increased odds of major depressive disorder at age 18, even after controlling for common risk factors. This study demonstrates the potential utility of incorporating high-resolution pollution estimates into large epidemiological cohorts to robustly investigate associations between air pollution and youth mental health.
Mudway IS, Dundas I, Wood HE, et al., 2019, Impact of London's low emission zone on air quality and children's respiratory health, The Lancet Public Health, Vol: 4, Pages: e28-e40, ISSN: 2468-2667
BACKGROUND: Low emission zones (LEZ) are an increasingly common, but unevaluated, intervention aimed at improving urban air quality and public health. We investigated the impact of London's LEZ on air quality and children's respiratory health.METHODS: We did a sequential annual cross-sectional study of 2164 children aged 8-9 years attending primary schools between 2009-10 and 2013-14 in central London, UK, following the introduction of London's LEZ in February, 2008. We examined the association between modelled pollutant exposures of nitrogen oxides (including nitrogen dioxide [NO2]) and particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and less than 10 μm (PM10) and lung function: postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1, primary outcome), forced vital capacity (FVC), and respiratory or allergic symptoms. We assigned annual exposures by each child's home and school address, as well as spatially resolved estimates for the 3 h (0600-0900 h), 24 h, and 7 days before each child's assessment, to isolate long-term from short-term effects.FINDINGS: The percentage of children living at addresses exceeding the EU limit value for annual NO2 (40 μg/m3) fell from 99% (444/450) in 2009 to 34% (150/441) in 2013. Over this period, we identified a reduction in NO2 at both roadside (median -1·35 μg/m3 per year; 95% CI -2·09 to -0·61; p=0·0004) and background locations (-0·97; -1·56 to -0·38; p=0·0013), but not for PM10. The effect on PM2·5 was equivocal. We found no association between postbronchodilator FEV1 and annual residential pollutant attributions. By contrast, FVC was inversely correlated with annual NO2 (-0·0023 L/μg per m3; -0·0044 to -0·0002; p=0·033) and PM10 (-0·0090 L/μg per m3; -0·0175 to -0·0005; p=0·038).INTERPRETATION: Within London's LEZ, a smaller lung volume in children was associated
Newbury JB, Arseneault L, Beevers S, et al., 2019, Association of air pollution exposure with psychotic experiences during adolescence, JAMA Psychiatry, Vol: 76, Pages: 614-623, ISSN: 2168-622X
Importance Urbanicity is a well-established risk factor for clinical (eg, schizophrenia) and subclinical (eg, hearing voices and paranoia) expressions of psychosis. To our knowledge, no studies have examined the association of air pollution with adolescent psychotic experiences, despite air pollution being a major environmental problem in cities.Objectives To examine the association between exposure to air pollution and adolescent psychotic experiences and test whether exposure mediates the association between urban residency and adolescent psychotic experiences.Design, Setting, and Participants The Environmental-Risk Longitudinal Twin Study is a population-based cohort study of 2232 children born during the period from January 1, 1994, through December 4, 1995, in England and Wales and followed up from birth through 18 years of age. The cohort represents the geographic and socioeconomic composition of UK households. Of the original cohort, 2066 (92.6%) participated in assessments at 18 years of age, of whom 2063 (99.9%) provided data on psychotic experiences. Generation of the pollution data was completed on October 4, 2017, and data were analyzed from May 4 to November 21, 2018.Exposures High-resolution annualized estimates of exposure to 4 air pollutants—nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters of less than 2.5 (PM2.5) and less than 10 μm (PM10)—were modeled for 2012 and linked to the home addresses of the sample plus 2 commonly visited locations when the participants were 18 years old.Main Outcomes and Measures At 18 years of age, participants were privately interviewed regarding adolescent psychotic experiences. Urbanicity was estimated using 2011 census data.Results Among the 2063 participants who provided data on psychotic experiences, sex was evenly distributed (52.5% female). Six hundred twenty-three participants (30.2%) had at least 1 psychotic experience from 12 to 18 years of ag
Newbury J, Arseneault L, Odgers C, et al., 2018, Elevated exposure to air pollution is associated with the emergence of psychotic experiences during adolescence, IEPA 11th International Conference on Early Intervention in Mental Health, Publisher: Wiley, Pages: 91-92, ISSN: 1751-7885
Carey IM, Anderson HR, Atkinson RW, et al., 2018, Are noise and air pollution related to the incidence of dementia? A cohort study in London, England, BMJ Open, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2044-6055
OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the incidence of dementia is related to residential levels of air and noise pollution in London. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using primary care data. SETTING: 75 Greater London practices. PARTICIPANTS: 130 978 adults aged 50-79 years registered with their general practices on 1 January 2005, with no recorded history of dementia or care home residence. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: A first recorded diagnosis of dementia and, where specified, subgroups of Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia during 2005-2013. The average annual concentrations during 2004 of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter with a median aerodynamic diameter </=2.5 microm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) were estimated at 20x20 m resolution from dispersion models. Traffic intensity, distance from major road and night-time noise levels (Lnight) were estimated at the postcode level. All exposure measures were linked anonymously to clinical data via residential postcode. HRs from Cox models were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, smoking and body mass index, with further adjustments explored for area deprivation and comorbidity. RESULTS: 2181 subjects (1.7%) received an incident diagnosis of dementia (39% mentioning Alzheimer's disease, 29% vascular dementia). There was a positive exposure response relationship between dementia and all measures of air pollution except O3, which was not readily explained by further adjustment. Adults living in areas with the highest fifth of NO2 concentration (>41.5 microg/m(3)) versus the lowest fifth (<31.9 microg/m(3)) were at a higher risk of dementia (HR=1.40, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.74). Increases in dementia risk were also observed with PM2.5, PM2.5 specifically from primary traffic sources only and Lnight, but only NO2 and PM2.5 remained statistically significant in multipollutant models. Associations were more consistent for Alzheimer's disease than vascular dementia. CONCLUSIONS: We have found evidence of a
Moore E, Lewis A, hashmi M, et al., 2018, Recruitment of patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) for research, npj Primary Care Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 28, ISSN: 2055-1010
Databases of electronic health records (EHR) are not only a valuable source of data for health research but have also recently been used as a medium through which potential study participants can be screened, located and approached to take part in research. The aim was to assess whether it is feasible and practical to screen, locate and approach patients to take part in research through the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). This is a cohort study in primary care. The CPRD anonymised EHR database was searched to screen patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) to take part in a research study. The potential participants were contacted via their General Practitioner (GP) who confirmed their eligibility. Eighty two practices across Greater London were invited to the study. Twenty-six (31.7%) practices consented to participate resulting in a pre-screened list of 988 patients. Of these, 632 (63.7%) were confirmed as eligible following the GP review. Two hundred twenty seven (36%) response forms were received by the study team; 79 (34.8%) responded ‘yes’ (i.e., they wanted to be contacted by the research assistant for more information and to talk about enrolling in the study), and 148 (65.2%) declined participation. This study has shown that it is possible to use EHR databases such as CPRD to screen, locate and recruit participants for research. This method provides access to a cohort of patients while minimising input needed by GPs and allows researchers to examine healthcare usage and disease burden in more detail and in real-life settings.
Tonne C, Milà C, Fecht D, et al., 2018, Socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities in exposure to air and noise pollution in London, Environment International, Vol: 115, Pages: 170-179, ISSN: 0160-4120
BACKGROUND: Transport-related air and noise pollution, exposures linked to adverse health outcomes, varies within cities potentially resulting in exposure inequalities. Relatively little is known regarding inequalities in personal exposure to air pollution or transport-related noise. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to quantify socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities in London in 1) air pollution exposure at residence compared to personal exposure; and 2) transport-related noise at residence from different sources. METHODS: We used individual-level data from the London Travel Demand Survey (n = 45,079) between 2006 and 2010. We modeled residential (CMAQ-urban) and personal (London Hybrid Exposure Model) particulate matter <2.5 μm and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), road-traffic noise at residence (TRANEX) and identified those within 50 dB noise contours of railways and Heathrow airport. We analyzed relationships between household income, area-level income deprivation and ethnicity with air and noise pollution using quantile and logistic regression. RESULTS: We observed inverse patterns in inequalities in air pollution when estimated at residence versus personal exposure with respect to household income (categorical, 8 groups). Compared to the lowest income group (<£10,000), the highest group (>£75,000) had lower residential NO2 (-1.3 (95% CI -2.1, -0.6) μg/m3 in the 95th exposure quantile) but higher personal NO2 exposure (1.9 (95% CI 1.6, 2.3) μg/m3 in the 95th quantile), which was driven largely by transport mode and duration. Inequalities in residential exposure to NO2 with respect to area-level deprivation were larger at lower exposure quantiles (e.g. estimate for NO2 5.1 (95% CI 4.6, 5.5) at quantile 0.15 versus 1.9 (95% CI 1.1, 2.6) at quantile 0.95), reflecting low-deprivation, high residential NO2 areas in the city centre. Air pollution exposure at residence consistently overestimated personal exposure; this overestimation varied with age
Williams ML, Beevers S, Kitwiroon N, et al., 2018, Public health air pollution impacts of pathway options to meet the 2050 UK Climate Change Act target: a modelling study, Public Health Research, Vol: 6, Pages: 1-124, ISSN: 2050-4381
BackgroundThe UK’s Climate Change Act 2008 (CCA; Great Britain. Climate Change Act 2008. Chapter 27. London: The Stationery Office; 2008) requires a reduction of 80% in carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions by 2050 on a 1990 base. This project quantified the impact of air pollution on health from four scenarios involving particulate matter of ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3). Two scenarios met the CCA target: one with limited nuclear power build (nuclear replacement option; NRPO) and one with no policy constraint on nuclear (low greenhouse gas). Another scenario envisaged no further climate actions beyond those already agreed (‘baseline’) and the fourth kept 2011 concentrations constant to 2050 (‘2011’).MethodsThe UK Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System (UKTM) energy system model was used to develop the scenarios and produce projections of fuel use; these were used to produce air pollutant emission inventories for Great Britain (GB) for each scenario. The inventories were then used to run the Community Multiscale Air Quality model ‘air pollution model’ to generate air pollutant concentration maps across GB, which then, combined with relationships between concentrations and health outcomes, were used to calculate the impact on health from the air pollution emitted in each scenario. This is a significant improvement on previous health impact studies of climate policies, which have relied on emissions changes. Inequalities in exposure in different socioeconomic groups were also calculated, as was the economic impact of the pollution emissions.ResultsConcentrations of NO2 declined significantly because of a high degree of electrification of the GB road transport fleet, although the NRPO scenario shows large increases in oxides of nitrogen emissions from combined heat and power (CHP) sources. Concentrations of PM2.5 show a modest decrease by 2050, which would have been larger if it had n
Williams ML, Lott MC, Kitwiroon N, et al., 2018, The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act, a modelling study for Great Britain, Vol: 2, Pages: e202-e213, ISSN: 2542-5196
Background Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions. Methods In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM2·5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups. Findings NO2 concentrations declined leading to 4 892 000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7 178 000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO2 itself. PM2·5 concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM2·5 are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood bu
Smith RB, Fecht D, Gulliver J, et al., 2017, Impact of London's road traffic air and noise pollution on birth weight: retrospective population based cohort study, BMJ, Vol: 359, ISSN: 1756-1833
Objective To investigate the relation between exposure to both air and noise pollution from road traffic and birth weight outcomes.Design Retrospective population based cohort study.Setting Greater London and surrounding counties up to the M25 motorway (2317 km2), UK, from 2006 to 2010.Participants 540 365 singleton term live births.Main outcome measures Term low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age (SGA) at term, and term birth weight.Results Average air pollutant exposures across pregnancy were 41 μg/m3 nitrogen dioxide (NO2), 73 μg/m3 nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14 μg/m3 particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5), 23 μg/m3 particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM10), and 32 μg/m3 ozone (O3). Average daytime (LAeq,16hr) and night-time (Lnight) road traffic A-weighted noise levels were 58 dB and 53 dB respectively. Interquartile range increases in NO2, NOx, PM2.5, PM10, and source specific PM2.5 from traffic exhaust (PM2.5 traffic exhaust) and traffic non-exhaust (brake or tyre wear and resuspension) (PM2.5 traffic non-exhaust) were associated with 2% to 6% increased odds of term LBW, and 1% to 3% increased odds of term SGA. Air pollutant associations were robust to adjustment for road traffic noise. Trends of decreasing birth weight across increasing road traffic noise categories were observed, but were strongly attenuated when adjusted for primary traffic related air pollutants. Only PM2.5 traffic exhaust and PM2.5 were consistently associated with increased risk of term LBW after adjustment for each of the other air pollutants. It was estimated that 3% of term LBW cases in London are directly attributable to residential exposure to PM2.5>13.8 μg/m3during pregnancy.Conclusions The findings suggest that air pollution from road traffic in London is adversely affecting fetal growth. The results suggest little evidence for an independent exposure-response effect of traffic related noise on b
Barratt B, Chatzidiakou L, Moore E, et al., 2017, Characterisation of COPD exacerbations using personal environmental exposure monitoring, European-Respiratory-Society (ERS) International Congress, Publisher: EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD, ISSN: 0903-1936
Butland BK, Atkinson RW, Crichton S, et al., 2017, Air pollution and the incidence of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke in the South London Stroke Register: a case-cross-over analysis, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Vol: 71, Pages: 707-712, ISSN: 0143-005X
Dajnak D, Stewart G, Beevers S, 2017, Policies for london nitrogen dioxide (NO<inf>2</inf>)compliance, Pages: 218-222
Over one tenth of the UK population live in London and since London’s air pollution concentrations are predicted to exceed legal NO2 limits until at least 2030 (DEFRA, 2015), London requires a bold combination of policies to tackle its air pollution problems. Road transport is the most significant source of NOX emissions in London with diesel vehicles the greatest contributor (TfL and GLA, 2013/2016). The current air pollution challenge, primarily caused by a shift from petrol to diesel vehicles over the last 15 years, needs to be recognised and reversed. Our study in partnership with Policy Exchange (PX), the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and Greenpeace (GP) builds on the Greater London Authority (GLA) implementation of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in 2020 (TfL, 2014). Our ambitious air quality strategy proposes a comprehensive package of measures focusing on road transport policies such as phasing out diesel cars in inner London, moving toward more sustainable road transport alternatives, restricting the most polluting vehicles entering London, cleaning up taxi and bus fleets, promoting electric vehicles and car clubs. The proposed policies (the scenario) result in large reductions in NOX emissions (45%) across London, relative to the projected outcome of the ULEZ (TfL, 2014) from the previous administration (the baseline). Our modelling results suggest significant improvement bringing nearly the whole of London into compliance with legal NO2 limits by 2025 and decreasing NO2 concentration levels below 20 μgm-3 from 16% in the baseline to nearly 36% in the scenario. This is important since there are still health impacts below the 40 μgm-3 limit value. However, some key hotspots of pollution, on major roads, still remain non-compliant and will need additional localised targeted actions. These air quality improvements are projected to have a pronounced positive effect upon health outcomes in the capital. Life expectancy for all London
Beddows AV, Kitwiroon N, Williams ML, et al., 2017, Emulation and Sensitivity Analysis of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for a UK Ozone Pollution Episode, Environmental science & technology, Vol: 51, Pages: 6229-6236, ISSN: 0013-936X
Gaussian process emulation techniques have been used with the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, simulating the effects of input uncertainties on ozone and NO2 output, to allow robust global sensitivity analysis (SA). A screening process ranked the effect of perturbations in 223 inputs, isolating the 30 most influential from emissions, boundary conditions (BCs), and reaction rates. Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) simulations of a July 2006 ozone pollution episode in the UK were made with input values for these variables plus ozone dry deposition velocity chosen according to a 576 point Latin hypercube design. Emulators trained on the output of these runs were used in variance-based SA of the model output to input uncertainties. Performing these analyses for every hour of a 21 day period spanning the episode and several days on either side allowed the results to be presented as a time series of sensitivity coefficients, showing how the influence of different input uncertainties changed during the episode. This is one of the most complex models to which these methods have been applied, and here, they reveal detailed spatiotemporal patterns of model sensitivities, with NO and isoprene emissions, NO2 photolysis, ozone BCs, and deposition velocity being among the most influential input uncertainties.
Bino M, Lefebvre W, Walton H, et al., 2017, Sensitivity analyses regarding NO2 exposure assessment and health impacts at a European scale, 18th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes
Currently, no adequate methodology exists to assess the NO2 health impacts at an EU-wide level. To a large extent this is attributed to the level of detail required in the NO2 concentration assessment at EU-level due to the strong spatial gradients for NO2 around roads. In this contribution we present a sensitivity analysis of the major sources of uncertainty in such an EU-wide health impact assessment for NO2. We do this by means of a number of bottom-up NO2 assessment maps contributed through the FAIRMODE composite mapping platform. We investigate the impact of the spatial resolution of the NO2 assessment, the available dose response curves and a number of ancillary datasets such as gridded population. We find that the largest source of uncertainty is found in the divergence between the different CRF’s available, in particular the choice of a ‘cut-off’ or ‘threshold’. For some cities, such as London, the difference is relatively small. However, the difference for smaller cities, such as Klagenfurt can go up to a factor of 6. Spatial resolution of the air quality maps and population maps is an important factor and depending on the concentration response function, the sensitivity is stronger. This work has been performed in the framework of the DG-ENV service contract 070201/2015/SER/717473/C.3, the conclusions of which contributed to the development of an EU-wide high resolution NO2 exposure assessment methodology.
Moore E, Hashmi M, Sultana K, et al., 2016, Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) to recruit participants from primary care to investigate Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) exacerbations., British Thoracic Society Winter Meeting 2016
Moore EA, Chatzidiakou L, Kuku M-O, et al., 2016, Global associations between air pollutants and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) exacerbations: a systematic review, European Respiratory Society Congress 2016, Publisher: European Respiratory Society, Pages: PA1126-PA1126, ISSN: 0903-1936
Background: COPD exacerbations (AECOPD) affect lung function decline and quality of life. The effect of exposure to different air pollutants on AECOPD is unclear.Aim: We systematically reviewed the literature examining associations between air pollutants and hospital admissions for AECOPD.Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS & Science Citation Index were searched until September 2015. Inclusion criteria focused on studies presenting solely a COPD outcome defined by hospital admissions, and a measure of gaseous air pollutants and particle fractions. The association between each pollutant with COPD admissions was investigated in meta-analyses using random-effects models. Analyses were stratified by geographical clusters to investigate the evidence worldwide.Results: 46 studies were included and results showed marginal positive associations. The number of included studies was small with high heterogeneity between them and there was evidence of small-study bias. Geographical clustering of the effects of pollution on COPD hospital admissions was evident and reduced heterogeneity significantly. The most consistent association was between a 1mg/m3 increase in carbon monoxide levels with COPD related admissions; Odds Ratio: 1.2 (95%CI: 1.01-1.03).Conclusions: There is mixed evidence on the effects of pollution on AECOPD. Limitations of previous studies include the low spatio-temporal resolution of pollutants, inadequate control for confounding factors, and the use of aggregated health data that ignore personal characteristics. The need for personal exposure monitoring in a large number of geographical locations is evident.
Desika A, Crichton S, Hoang U, et al., 2016, Effect of exhaust- and nonexhaust-related components of particulate matter on long-term survival after stroke, Stroke, Vol: 47, Pages: 2916-2922, ISSN: 0039-2499
Smith JD, Mitsakou C, Kitwiroon N, et al., 2016, London hybrid exposure model: improving human exposure estimates to NO2 and PM2.5 in an urban setting, Environmental Science and Technology (Washington), Vol: 50, Pages: 11760-11768, ISSN: 0013-936X
Here we describe the development of the London Hybrid Exposure Model (LHEM), which calculates exposure of the Greater London population to outdoor air pollution sources, in-buildings, in-vehicles and outdoors, using survey data of when and where people spend their time. For comparison and to estimate exposure misclassification we compared Londoners LHEM exposure with exposure at the residential address, a commonly used exposure metric in epidemiological research. In 2011, the mean annual LHEM exposure to outdoor sources was estimated to be 37÷ lower for PM2.5 and 63÷ lower for NO2 than at the residential address. These decreased estimates reflect, the effects of reduced exposure indoors, the amount of time spent indoors (95÷), and the mode and duration of travel in London. We find that an individual's exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 outside their residential address is highly correlated (Pearson's R of 0.9). In contrast, LHEM exposure estimates for PM2.5 and NO2 suggest that the degree of correlation is influe...
Walton RT, Mudway IS, Dundas I, et al., 2016, Air pollution, ethnicity and telomere length in east London schoolchildren: An observational study, Environ Int, Vol: 96, Pages: 41-47, ISSN: 1873-6750
BACKGROUND: Short telomeres are associated with chronic disease and early mortality. Recent studies in adults suggest an association between telomere length and exposure to particulate matter, and that ethnicity may modify the relationship. However associations in children are unknown. OBJECTIVES: We examined associations between air pollution and telomere length in an ethnically diverse group of children exposed to high levels of traffic derived pollutants, particularly diesel exhaust, and to environmental tobacco smoke. METHODS: Oral DNA from 333 children (8-9years) participating in a study on air quality and respiratory health in 23 inner city London schools was analysed for relative telomere length using monochrome multiplex qPCR. Annual, weekly and daily exposures to nitrogen oxides and particulate matter were obtained from urban dispersion models (2008-10) and tobacco smoke by urinary cotinine. Ethnicity was assessed by self-report and continental ancestry by analysis of 28 random genomic markers. We used linear mixed effects models to examine associations with telomere length. RESULTS: Telomere length increased with increasing annual exposure to NOx (model coefficient 0.003, [0.001, 0.005], p<0.001), NO2 (0.009 [0.004, 0.015], p<0.001), PM2.5 (0.041, [0.020, 0.063], p<0.001) and PM10 (0.096, [0.044, 0.149], p<0.001). There was no association with environmental tobacco smoke. Telomere length was increased in children reporting black ethnicity (22% [95% CI 10%, 36%], p<0.001) CONCLUSIONS: Pollution exposure is associated with longer telomeres in children and genetic ancestry is an important determinant of telomere length. Further studies should investigate both short and long-term associations between pollutant exposure and telomeres in childhood and assess underlying mechanisms.
Maheswaran R, Pearson T, Beevers SD, et al., 2016, Air Pollution and Subtypes, Severity and Vulnerability to Ischemic Stroke-A Population Based Case-Crossover Study, PLOS ONE, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1932-6203
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Carley IM, Anderson HR, Atkinson RW, et al., 2016, Traffic pollution and the incidence of cardiorespiratory outcomes in an adult cohort in London, Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Vol: 73, Pages: 849-856, ISSN: 1351-0711
Fecht D, Hansell A, Morley D, et al., 2016, Spatial and temporal associations of road traffic noise and air pollution in London: Implications for epidemiological studies, Environment International, Vol: 88, Pages: 235-242, ISSN: 0160-4120
Road traffic gives rise to noise and air pollution exposures, both of which are associated with adverse health effects especially for cardiovascular disease, but mechanisms may differ. Understanding the variability in correlations between these pollutants is essential to understand better their separate and joint effects on human health.We explored associations between modelled noise and air pollutants using different spatial units and area characteristics in London in 2003–2010.We modelled annual average exposures to road traffic noise (LAeq,24 h, Lden, LAeq,16 h, Lnight) for ~ 190,000 postcode centroids in London using the UK Calculation of Road Traffic Noise (CRTN) method. We used a dispersion model (KCLurban) to model nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxide, ozone, total and the traffic-only component of particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm and ≤ 10 μm. We analysed noise and air pollution correlations at the postcode level (~ 50 people), postcodes stratified by London Boroughs (~ 240,000 people), neighbourhoods (Lower layer Super Output Areas) (~ 1600 people), 1 km grid squares, air pollution tertiles, 50 m, 100 m and 200 m in distance from major roads and by deprivation tertiles.Across all London postcodes, we observed overall moderate correlations between modelled noise and air pollution that were stable over time (Spearman's rho range: | 0.34–0.55 |). Correlations, however, varied considerably depending on the spatial unit: largest ranges were seen in neighbourhoods and 1 km grid squares (both Spearman's rho range: | 0.01–0.87 |) and was less for Boroughs (Spearman's rho range: | 0.21–0.78 |). There was little difference in correlations between exposure tertiles, distance from road or deprivation tertiles.Associations between noise and air pollution at the relevant geographical unit of analysis need to be carefully considered in any epidemiological analysis, in particular in complex urban areas. Low correlations near roads, however, sugges
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