Publications
252 results found
Bhatt S, Mund HS, Kumar K, et al., 2019, Reply to “Comment on ‘Magnetic Compton scattering study of Laves phase ZrFe2 and Sc doped ZrFe2: Experiment and Green function based relativistic calculations’ by Bhatt et al.”, Journal of Magnetism and Magnetic Materials, Vol: 475, Pages: 801-802, ISSN: 0304-8853
Kraemer MUG, Golding N, Bisanzio D, et al., 2019, Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings, SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, Vol: 9, ISSN: 2045-2322
- Author Web Link
- Cite
- Citations: 63
Routledge I, Lai S, Battle KE, et al., 2019, TRACKING PROGRESS TOWARDS MALARIA IN ELIMINATION IN CHINA: A MODELLING STUDY, 68th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-for-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 305-305, ISSN: 0002-9637
Weiss DJ, Bhatt S, Demin I, et al., 2019, UTILIZING HIGH RESOLUTION MALARIA MAPS AND FUTURE FORECASTS TO OPTIMIZE SITE SELECTION FOR CLINICAL TRIALS IN MALARIA, 68th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-for-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 304-305, ISSN: 0002-9637
Bertozzi-Villa A, Proctor JL, Gerardin J, et al., 2019, WHOSE ARCHETYPE IS IT, ANYWAY? A MACHINE LEARNING APPROACH FOR CHARACTERIZING MALARIA TRANSMISSION SETTINGS, 68th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-for-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 187-188, ISSN: 0002-9637
Hockham C, Bhatt S, Colah R, et al., 2018, The spatial epidemiology of sickle-cell anaemia in India, Scientific Reports, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2045-2322
Sickle-cell anaemia (SCA) is a neglected chronic disorder of increasing global health importance, with India estimated to have the second highest burden of the disease. In the country, SCA is particularly prevalent in scheduled populations, which comprise the most socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. We compiled a geodatabase of a substantial number of SCA surveys carried out in India over the last decade. Using generalised additive models and bootstrapping methods, we generated the first India-specific model-based map of sickle-cell allele frequency which accounts for the district-level distribution of scheduled and non-scheduled populations. Where possible, we derived state- and district-level estimates of the number of SCA newborns in 2020 in the two groups. Through the inclusion of an additional 158 data points and 1.3 million individuals, we considerably increased the amount of data in our mapping evidence-base compared to previous studies. Highest predicted frequencies of up to 10% spanned central India, whilst a hotspot of ~12% was observed in Jammu and Kashmir. Evidence was heavily biased towards scheduled populations and remained limited for non-scheduled populations, which can lead to considerable uncertainties in newborn estimates at national and state level. This has important implications for health policy and planning. By taking population composition into account, we have generated maps and estimates that better reflect the complex epidemiology of SCA in India and in turn provide more reliable estimates of its burden in the vast country. This work was supported by European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7//2007–2013)/European Research Council [268904 – DIVERSITY]; and the Newton-Bhabha Fund [227756052 to CH]
Ton J-F, Flaxman S, Sejdinovic D, et al., 2018, Spatial mapping with Gaussian processes and nonstationary Fourier features, Spatial Statistics, Vol: 28, Pages: 59-78, ISSN: 2211-6753
The use of covariance kernels is ubiquitous in the field of spatial statistics. Kernels allow data to be mapped into high-dimensional feature spaces and can thus extend simple linear additive methods to nonlinear methods with higher order interactions. However, until recently, there has been a strong reliance on a limited class of stationary kernels such as the Matérn or squared exponential, limiting the expressiveness of these modelling approaches. Recent machine learning research has focused on spectral representations to model arbitrary stationary kernels and introduced more general representations that include classes of nonstationary kernels. In this paper, we exploit the connections between Fourier feature representations, Gaussian processes and neural networks to generalise previous approaches and develop a simple and efficient framework to learn arbitrarily complex nonstationary kernel functions directly from the data, while taking care to avoid overfitting using state-of-the-art methods from deep learning. We highlight the very broad array of kernel classes that could be created within this framework. We apply this to a time series dataset and a remote sensing problem involving land surface temperature in Eastern Africa. We show that without increasing the computational or storage complexity, nonstationary kernels can be used to improve generalisation performance and provide more interpretable results.
Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, et al., 2018, Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 1736-1788, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundGlobal development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.MethodsThe causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.FindingsAt the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest f
James SL, Abate D, Abate KH, et al., 2018, Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 1789-1858, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.MethodsWe estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calcula
Kyu HH, Abate D, Abate KH, et al., 2018, Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 1859-1922, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundHow long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years.MethodsWe used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males.FindingsGlobally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1–7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3–65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7–73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0–5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3–12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1&ndash
Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, et al., 2018, Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 1684-1735, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundAssessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.MethodsThe GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different compone
Pfeffer DA, Lucas TCD, May D, et al., 2018, malariaAtlas: an R interface to global malariometric data hosted by the Malaria Atlas Project, Malaria Journal, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1475-2875
BackgroundThe Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) has worked to assemble and maintain a global open-access database of spatial malariometric data for over a decade. This data spans various formats and topics, including: geo-located surveys of malaria parasite rate; global administrative boundary shapefiles; and global and regional rasters representing the distribution of malaria and associated illnesses, blood disorders, and intervention coverage. MAP has recently released malariaAtlas, an R package providing a direct interface to MAP’s routinely-updated malariometric databases and research outputs.Methods and resultsThe current paper reviews the functionality available in malariaAtlas and highlights its utility for spatial epidemiological analysis of malaria. malariaAtlas enables users to freely download, visualise and analyse global malariometric data within R. Currently available data types include: malaria parasite rate and vector occurrence point data; subnational administrative boundary shapefiles; and a large suite of rasters covering a diverse range of metrics related to malaria research. malariaAtlas is here used in two mock analyses to illustrate how this data may be incorporated into a standard R workflow for spatial analysis.ConclusionsmalariaAtlas is the first open-access R-interface to malariometric data, providing a new and reproducible means of accessing such data within a freely available and commonly used statistical software environment. In this way, the malariaAtlas package aims to contribute to the environment of data-sharing within the malaria research community.
Reiner RC, Graetz N, Casey DC, et al., 2018, Variation in Childhood Diarrheal Morbidity and Mortality in Africa, 2000-2015, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol: 379, Pages: 1128-1138, ISSN: 0028-4793
BackgroundDiarrheal diseases are the third leading cause of disease and death in children younger than 5 years of age in Africa and were responsible for an estimated 30 million cases of severe diarrhea (95% credible interval, 27 million to 33 million) and 330,000 deaths (95% credible interval, 270,000 to 380,000) in 2015. The development of targeted approaches to address this burden has been hampered by a paucity of comprehensive, fine-scale estimates of diarrhea-related disease and death among and within countries.MethodsWe produced annual estimates of the prevalence and incidence of diarrhea and diarrhea-related mortality with high geographic detail (5 km2) across Africa from 2000 through 2015. Estimates were created with the use of Bayesian geostatistical techniques and were calibrated to the results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016.ResultsThe results revealed geographic inequality with regard to diarrhea risk in Africa. Of the estimated 330,000 childhood deaths that were attributable to diarrhea in 2015, more than 50% occurred in 55 of the 782 first-level administrative subdivisions (e.g., states). In 2015, mortality rates among first-level administrative subdivisions in Nigeria differed by up to a factor of 6. The case fatality rates were highly varied at the national level across Africa, with the highest values observed in Benin, Lesotho, Mali, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.ConclusionsOur findings showed concentrated areas of diarrheal disease and diarrhea-related death in countries that had a consistently high burden as well as in countries that had considerable national-level reductions in diarrhea burden. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.)
Routledge I, Chevez JER, Cucunubá ZM, et al., 2018, Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting, Nature Communications, Vol: 9, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 2041-1723
In 2016 the World Health Organization identified 21 countries that could eliminate malaria by 2020. Monitoring progress towards this goal requires tracking ongoing transmission. Here we develop methods that estimate individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space. Individual reproduction numbers, Rc, describe the state of transmission at a point in time and differ from mean reproduction numbers, which are averages of the number of people infected by a typical case. We assess elimination progress in El Salvador using data for confirmed cases of malaria from 2010 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that whilst the average number of secondary malaria cases was below one (0.61, 95% CI 0.55–0.65), individual reproduction numbers often exceeded one. We estimate a decline in Rc between 2010 and 2016. However we also show that if importation is maintained at the same rate, the country may not achieve malaria elimination by 2020.
Hancock PA, Wiebe A, Gleave KA, et al., 2018, Associated patterns of insecticide resistance in field populations of malaria vectors across Africa, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol: 115, Pages: 5938-5943, ISSN: 0027-8424
The development of insecticide resistance in African malaria vectors threatens the continued efficacy of important vector control methods that rely on a limited set of insecticides. To understand the operational significance of resistance we require quantitative information about levels of resistance in field populations to the suite of vector control insecticides. Estimation of resistance is complicated by the sparsity of observations in field populations, variation in resistance over time and space at local and regional scales, and cross-resistance between different insecticide types. Using observations of the prevalence of resistance in mosquito species from the Anopheles gambiae complex sampled from 1,183 locations throughout Africa, we applied Bayesian geostatistical models to quantify patterns of covariation in resistance phenotypes across different insecticides. For resistance to the three pyrethroids tested, deltamethrin, permethrin, and λ-cyhalothrin, we found consistent forms of covariation across sub-Saharan Africa and covariation between resistance to these pyrethroids and resistance to DDT. We found no evidence of resistance interactions between carbamate and organophosphate insecticides or between these insecticides and those from other classes. For pyrethroids and DDT we found significant associations between predicted mean resistance and the observed frequency of kdr mutations in the Vgsc gene in field mosquito samples, with DDT showing the strongest association. These results improve our capacity to understand and predict resistance patterns throughout Africa and can guide the development of monitoring strategies.
Routledge I, Walker M, Cheke R, et al., 2018, Modelling the impact of larviciding on the population dynamics and biting rates of Simulium damnosum s.l.: implications for vector control as a complementary strategy for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa, Parasites & Vectors, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-16, ISSN: 1756-3305
Background:In 2012, the World Health Organization set goals for the elimination of onchocerciasis transmission by 2020 in selected African countries. Epidemiological data and mathematical modelling have indicated that elimination may not be achieved with annual ivermectin distribution in all endemic foci. Complementary and alternative treatment strategies (ATS), including vector control, will be necessary. Implementation of vector control will require that the ecology and population dynamics of Simuliumdamnosum sensu latobe carefully considered.Methods:We adapted our previous SIMuliid POPulation dynamics (SIMPOP) model to explore the impact of larvicidal insecticides on S.damnosums.l.biting rates in different ecological contexts and to identify how frequently and for how long vector control should be continued to sustain substantive reductions in vector biting. SIMPOP was fitted to data from large-scale aerial larviciding trials in savannah sites (Ghana) and small-scale ground larviciding trials in forest areas (Cameroon). The model was validated against independent data from Burkina Faso/Côte d’Ivoire (savannah) and Bioko (forest). Scenario analysis explored the effects of ecological and programmatic factors such as pre-control daily biting rate (DBR) and larviciding scheme design on reductions and resurgences in biting rates.Results: The estimated efficacy of large-scale aerial larviciding in the savannah was greater than that of ground-based larviciding in the forest. Small changes in larvicidal efficacy can have large impacts on intervention success. At 93% larvicidal efficacy (a realistic value based on field trials), 10 consecutive weekly larvicidal treatments would reduce DBRs by 96% (e.g. from 400 to 16bites/person/day). At 70% efficacy, and for 10 weekly applications, the DBRwould decrease by 67% (e.g. from 400 to 132bites/person/day). Larviciding is more likely to succeed in areas with lower water temperatures and where blackfly species have lo
Dalrymple U, Cameron E, Bhatt S, et al., 2018, Correction: Quantifying the contribution of Plasmodium falciparum malaria to febrile illness amongst African children., Elife, Vol: 7
Meyer-Rath G, McGillen JB, Cuadros DF, et al., 2018, Targeting the right interventions to the right people and places: the role of geospatial analysis in HIV program planning, AIDS, Vol: 32, Pages: 957-963, ISSN: 0269-9370
Bhatt S, Mund HS, Kumar K, et al., 2018, Magnetic Compton scattering study of Laves phase ZrFe 2 and Sc doped ZrFe 2 : Experiment and Green function based relativistic calculations, Journal of Magnetism and Magnetic Materials, Vol: 454, Pages: 125-130, ISSN: 0304-8853
Bhatt S, Ahuja U, Kumar K, et al., 2018, Electronic response of rare-earth magnetic-refrigeration compounds GdX 2 (X = Fe and Co), Physica B: Condensed Matter, Vol: 537, Pages: 236-242, ISSN: 0921-4526
Osgood-Zimmerman A, Millear AI, Stubbs RW, et al., 2018, Mapping child growth failure in Africa between 2000 and 2015, NATURE, Vol: 555, Pages: 41-47, ISSN: 0028-0836
Insufficient growth during childhood is associated with poor health outcomes and an increased risk of death. Between 2000 and 2015, nearly all African countries demonstrated improvements for children under 5 years old for stunting, wasting, and underweight, the core components of child growth failure. Here we show that striking subnational heterogeneity in levels and trends of child growth remains. If current rates of progress are sustained, many areas of Africa will meet the World Health Organization Global Targets 2025 to improve maternal, infant and young child nutrition, but high levels of growth failure will persist across the Sahel. At these rates, much, if not all of the continent will fail to meet the Sustainable Development Goal target—to end malnutrition by 2030. Geospatial estimates of child growth failure provide a baseline for measuring progress as well as a precision public health platform to target interventions to those populations with the greatest need, in order to reduce health disparities and accelerate progress.
Graetz N, Friedman J, Osgood-Zimmerman A, et al., 2018, Mapping local variation in educational attainment across Africa, NATURE, Vol: 555, Pages: 48-53, ISSN: 0028-0836
Educational attainment for women of reproductive age is linked to reduced child and maternal mortality, lower fertility and improved reproductive health. Comparable analyses of attainment exist only at the national level, potentially obscuring patterns in subnational inequality. Evidence suggests that wide disparities between urban and rural populations exist, raising questions about where the majority of progress towards the education targets of the Sustainable Development Goals is occurring in African countries. Here we explore within-country inequalities by predicting years of schooling across five by five kilometre grids, generating estimates of average educational attainment by age and sex at subnational levels. Despite marked progress in attainment from 2000 to 2015 across Africa, substantial differences persist between locations and sexes. These differences have widened in many countries, particularly across the Sahel. These high-resolution, comparable estimates improve the ability of decision-makers to plan the precisely targeted interventions that will be necessary to deliver progress during the era of the Sustainable Development Goals.
Weiss DJ, Nelson A, Gibson HS, et al., 2018, A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015, Nature, Vol: 553, Pages: 333-336, ISSN: 0028-0836
The economic and man-made resources that sustain human wellbeing are not distributed evenly across the world, but are instead heavily concentrated in cities. Poor access to opportunities and services offered by urban centres (a function of distance, transport infrastructure, and the spatial distribution of cities) is a major barrier to improved livelihoods and overall development. Advancing accessibility worldwide underpins the equity agenda of ‘leaving no one behind’ established by the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations1. This has renewed international efforts to accurately measure accessibility and generate a metric that can inform the design and implementation of development policies. The only previous attempt to reliably map accessibility worldwide, which was published nearly a decade ago2, predated the baseline for the Sustainable Development Goals and excluded the recent expansion in infrastructure networks, particularly in lower-resource settings. In parallel, new data sources provided by Open Street Map and Google now capture transportation networks with unprecedented detail and precision. Here we develop and validate a map that quantifies travel time to cities for 2015 at a spatial resolution of approximately one by one kilometre by integrating ten global-scale surfaces that characterize factors affecting human movement rates and 13,840 high-density urban centres within an established geospatial-modelling framework. Our results highlight disparities in accessibility relative to wealth as 50.9% of individuals living in low-income settings (concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa) reside within an hour of a city compared to 90.7% of individuals in high-income settings. By further triangulating this map against socioeconomic datasets, we demonstrate how access to urban centres stratifies the economic, educational, and health status of humanity.
Deutsch-Feldman M, Aydemir O, Carrel M, et al., 2018, SPATIAL EPIDEMIOLOGY OF <it>PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM</it> DRUG RESISTANCE IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO, 67th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTHM), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 321-321, ISSN: 0002-9637
Routledge I, Gustafson K, Ruktanonchai N, et al., 2018, A GENERALIZABLE APPROACH TO INCORPORATE LOCATION INFORMATION IN NETWORK RECONSTRUCTION AND OUTBREAK ANALYSIS FOR IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF THE SPATIAL ASPECTS OF TRANSMISSION RISK, 67th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTHM), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 253-254, ISSN: 0002-9637
Hancock P, Wiebe A, Gleave K, et al., 2018, MAPPING SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERNS IN INSECTICIDE RESISTANCE PHENOTYPES IN MALARIA VECTORS ACROSS AFRICA, 67th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTHM), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 218-218, ISSN: 0002-9637
Lambert B, Bhatt S, Churcher T, 2018, A RIGOROUS AND REPRODUCIBLE BAYESIAN METHOD FOR DETERMINATION OF THE ORIGINS OF MALARIA INFECTION IN AREAS APPROACHING ELIMINATION, 67th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTHM), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 357-357, ISSN: 0002-9637
Andrade-Pacheco R, Sturrock HJ, Bhatt S, et al., 2017, USING TREATMENT SEEKING DATA TO DEFINE HEALTH CATCHMENT AREA MODELS: EVIDENCE FROM ZAMBIA, 65th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 458-458, ISSN: 0002-9637
Fullman N, Barber RM, Abajobir AA, et al., 2017, Erratum: Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (The Lancet (2017) 390(10100) (1423–1459) (S014067361732336X) (10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X)), The Lancet, Vol: 390, Pages: e38-e38, ISSN: 0140-6736
GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390: 1423–59—The full-text version of this Article has been updated so that the list of authors is displayed in the correct order, in line with the pdf version, rather than in alphabetical order. This correction has been made to the online version as of Oct 12, 2017.
Dalrymple U, Cameron E, Bhatt S, et al., 2017, Quantifying the contribution of plasmodium falciparum malaria to febrile illness amongst african children, eLife, Vol: 6
© Dalrymple et al. Suspected malaria cases in Africa increasingly receive a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) before antimalarials are prescribed. While this ensures efficient use of resources to clear parasites, the underlying cause of the individual’s fever remains unknown due to potential coinfection with a non-malarial febrile illness. Widespread use of RDTs does not necessarily prevent over-estimation of clinical malaria cases or sub-optimal case management of febrile patients. We present a new approach that allows inference of the spatiotemporal prevalence of both Plasmodium falciparum malaria-attributable and non-malarial fever in sub-Saharan African children from 2006 to 2014. We estimate that 35.7% of all self-reported fevers were accompanied by a malaria infection in 2014, but that only 28.0% of those (10.0% of all fevers) were causally attributable to malaria. Most fevers among malaria-positive children are therefore caused by non-malaria illnesses. This refined understanding can help improve interpretation of the burden of febrile illness and shape policy on fever case management.
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.