Imperial College London
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ProfessorSamirBhatt

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Statistics and Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 5029s.bhatt

 
 
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Location

 

G32ASt Mary's Research BuildingSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Hillis:2021:10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01253-8,
author = {Hillis, S and Unwin, H and Chen, Y and Cluver, L and Sherr, L and Goldman, P and Ratmann, O and Donnelly, C and Bhatt, S and Villaveces, A and Butchart, A and Bachman, G and Rawlings, L and Green, P and Nelson, C and Flaxman, S},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01253-8},
journal = {The Lancet},
pages = {391--402},
title = {Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01253-8},
volume = {398},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background: The COVID-19 pandemic response has focused on prevention, detection, and response. Beyond morbidity and mortality, pandemics carry secondary impacts, such as children orphaned or bereft of their caregivers. Such children often face adverse consequences, including poverty, abuse, and institutionalization. We provide estimates for the magnitude of this problem resulting from COVID-19 and describe the need for resource allocation.Methods: We use mortality and fertility data to model minimum estimates and rates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood (death of 1 or both parents) and deaths of custodial and co-residing grandparents for 21 countries. We use these estimates to model global extrapolations for the number of children experiencing COVID-19-associated deaths of parents and grandparents ages 60-84.Results: Globally, from March 1, 2020-March 31, 2021, we estimate 974,000 children experienced death of primary caregivers, including parents or custodial grandparents; >1.3 million experienced death of primary caregivers and co-residing grandparents (or kin).  Countries with rates of primary caregiver deaths >1/1000 children included Peru, South Africa, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, I.R. Iran, U.S.A., and Russia (range, 1.0-8.5/1000). Numbers of children orphaned exceeded numbers of deaths among those aged 15 – 44; 2 – 5 times more children had deceased fathers than deceased mothers. Conclusions: Orphanhood and caregiver deaths are a hidden pandemic resulting from COVID-19-associated deaths. Accelerating equitable vaccine delivery is key to prevention. Psychosocial and economic support can help families nurture children bereft of caregivers and help ensure institutionalization is avoided. These data demonstrate the need for an additional pillar of our response: prevent, detect, respond, and care for children.
AU  - Hillis,S
AU  - Unwin,H
AU  - Chen,Y
AU  - Cluver,L
AU  - Sherr,L
AU  - Goldman,P
AU  - Ratmann,O
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Villaveces,A
AU  - Butchart,A
AU  - Bachman,G
AU  - Rawlings,L
AU  - Green,P
AU  - Nelson,C
AU  - Flaxman,S
DO  - 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01253-8
EP  - 402
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0140-6736
SP  - 391
TI  - Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study
T2  - The Lancet
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01253-8
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673621012538?via%3Dihub
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/88887
VL  - 398
ER  -
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