Publications

BibTex format

@unpublished{Brizzi:2022:10.1101/2021.11.01.21265731,
author = {Brizzi, A and Whittaker, C and Servo, LMS and Hawryluk, I and Prete, CA and de, Souza WM and Aguiar, RS and Araujo, LJT and Bastos, LS and Blenkinsop, A and Buss, LF and Candido, D and Castro, MC and Costa, SF and Croda, J and de, Souza Santos AA and Dye, C and Flaxman, S and Fonseca, PLC and Geddes, VEV and Gutierrez, B and Lemey, P and Levin, AS and Mellan, T and Bonfim, DM and Miscouridou, X and Mishra, S and Monod, M and Moreira, FRR and Nelson, B and Pereira, RHM and Ranzani, O and Schnekenberg, RP and Semenova, E and Sonnabend, R and Souza, RP and Xi, X and Sabino, EC and Faria, NR and Bhatt, S and Ratmann, O},
doi = {10.1101/2021.11.01.21265731},
publisher = {MedrXiv},
title = {Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.01.21265731},
year = {2022}
}

Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma's spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma's detection, and were largely transient after Gamma's detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil's COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries. NOTE: The following manuscript has appeared as 'Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals' at https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 . ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY: COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity.
AU  - Brizzi,A
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Servo,LMS
AU  - Hawryluk,I
AU  - Prete,CA
AU  - de,Souza WM
AU  - Aguiar,RS
AU  - Araujo,LJT
AU  - Bastos,LS
AU  - Blenkinsop,A
AU  - Buss,LF
AU  - Candido,D
AU  - Castro,MC
AU  - Costa,SF
AU  - Croda,J
AU  - de,Souza Santos AA
AU  - Dye,C
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Fonseca,PLC
AU  - Geddes,VEV
AU  - Gutierrez,B
AU  - Lemey,P
AU  - Levin,AS
AU  - Mellan,T
AU  - Bonfim,DM
AU  - Miscouridou,X
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Monod,M
AU  - Moreira,FRR
AU  - Nelson,B
AU  - Pereira,RHM
AU  - Ranzani,O
AU  - Schnekenberg,RP
AU  - Semenova,E
AU  - Sonnabend,R
AU  - Souza,RP
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Sabino,EC
AU  - Faria,NR
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Ratmann,O
DO  - 10.1101/2021.11.01.21265731
PB  - MedrXiv
PY  - 2022///
TI  - Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals.
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.01.21265731
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34751273
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/99465
ER  -

Download

ProfessorSamirBhatt

Contact

Location

Summary

Citation

BibTex format

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)