Imperial College London
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ProfessorSamirBhatt

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Statistics and Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 5029s.bhatt

 
 
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Location

 

G32ASt Mary's Research BuildingSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Laydon:2023:10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00117-1,
author = {Laydon, D and Cauchemez, S and Hinsley, W and Bhatt, S and Ferguson, N},
doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00117-1},
journal = {The Lancet Global Health},
pages = {e759--e769},
title = {Impact of proactive and reactive vaccination strategies for health-care workers against MERS-CoV: a mathematical modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00117-1},
volume = {11},
year = {2023}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundSeveral vaccine candidates are in development against MERS-CoV, which remains a major public health concern. In anticipation of available MERS-CoV vaccines, we examine strategies for their optimal deployment among health-care workers.MethodsUsing data from the 2013–14 Saudi Arabia epidemic, we use a counterfactual analysis on inferred transmission trees (who-infected-whom analysis) to assess the potential impact of vaccination campaigns targeting health-care workers, as quantified by the proportion of cases or deaths averted. We investigate the conditions under which proactive campaigns (ie vaccinating in anticipation of the next outbreak) would outperform reactive campaigns (ie vaccinating in response to an unfolding outbreak), considering vaccine efficacy, duration of vaccine protection, effectiveness of animal reservoir control measures, wait (time between vaccination and next outbreak, for proactive campaigns), reaction time (for reactive campaigns), and spatial level (hospital, regional, or national, for reactive campaigns). We also examine the relative efficiency (cases averted per thousand doses) of different strategies.FindingsThe spatial scale of reactive campaigns is crucial. Proactive campaigns outperform campaigns that vaccinate health-care workers in response to outbreaks at their hospital, unless vaccine efficacy has waned significantly. However, reactive campaigns at the regional or national levels consistently outperform proactive campaigns, regardless of vaccine efficacy. When considering the number of cases averted per vaccine dose administered, the rank order is reversed: hospital-level reactive campaigns are most efficient, followed by regional-level reactive campaigns, with national-level and proactive campaigns being least efficient. If the number of cases required to trigger reactive vaccination increases, the performance of hospital-level campaigns is greatly reduced; the impact of regional-level campaigns is variable, but tha
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Cauchemez,S
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Ferguson,N
DO  - 10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00117-1
EP  - 769
PY  - 2023///
SN  - 2214-109X
SP  - 759
TI  - Impact of proactive and reactive vaccination strategies for health-care workers against MERS-CoV: a mathematical modelling study
T2  - The Lancet Global Health
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00117-1
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/103151
VL  - 11
ER  -
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