16 results found
Budinis S, Sachs J, Giarola S, et al., 2020, An agent-based modelling approach to simulate the investment decision of industrial enterprises, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol: 267, ISSN: 0959-6526
China is the leading ammonia producer and relies on a coal-based technology which makes the already energy intensive Haber-Bosch process, one of the most emission intensive in the world. This work is the first to propose an agent-based modelling framework to model the Chinese ammonia industry as it characterises the specific goals and barriers towards fuel switching and carbon capture and storage adoption for small, medium, and large enterprises either private or state-owned. The results show that facilitated access to capital makes investments in sustainable technologies more attractive for all firms, especially for small and medium enterprises. Without policy instruments such as carbon price, the decrease in emissions in the long-term is due to investments in natural gas-based technologies, as they typically have lower capital and operating costs, and also lower electricity consumption than coal-based production. Conversely, with policy instruments in place, a strong decrease in emissions occurs between 2060 and 2080 due to investors choosing natural gas and biomethane-based technologies, with carbon capture and storage. In the long term, natural gas and biomethane could compete, with the outcome depending on infrastructure, supply chain availability and land use constraints.
Moya D, Budinis S, Giarola S, et al., 2020, Agent-based scenarios comparison for assessing fuel-switching investment in long-term energy transitions of the India’s industry sector, Applied Energy, Vol: 274, Pages: 1-26, ISSN: 0306-2619
This paper presents the formulation and application of a novel agent-based integrated assessment approach to model the attributes, objectives and decision-making process of investors in a long-term energy transition in India’s iron and steel sector. It takes empirical data from an on-site survey of 108 operating plants in Maharashtra to formulate objectives and decision-making metrics for the agent-based model and simulates possible future portfolio mixes. The studied decision drivers were capital costs, operating costs (including fuel consumption), a combination of capital and operating costs, and net present value. Where investors used a weighted combination of capital cost and operating costs, a natural gas uptake of ~12PJ was obtained and the highest cumulative emissions reduction was obtained, 2 Mt CO2 in the period from 2020 to 2050. Conversely if net present value alone is used, cumulative emissions reduction in the same period was lower, 1.6 Mt CO2, and the cumulative uptake of natural gas was equal to 15PJ. Results show how the differing upfront investment cost of the technology options could cause prevalence of high-carbon fuels, particularly heavy fuel oil, in the final mix. Results also represent the unique heterogeneity of fuel-switching industrial investors with distinct investment goals and limited foresight on costs. The perception of high capital expenditures for decarbonisation represents a significant barrier to the energy transition in industry and should be addressed via effective policy making (e.g. carbon policy/price).
Luh S, Budinis S, Giarola S, et al., 2020, Long-term development of the industrial sector – case study about electrification, fuel switching, and CCS in the USA, Computers & Chemical Engineering, Vol: 133, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 0098-1354
In the urgent quest for solutions to mitigate climate change, the industry is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to model the investment decisions in industry, the Industrial Sector Module (ISM) of the ModUlar energy system Simulation Environment (MUSE). This work uses the ISM to quantify effects of three combined measures for CO2 emission reduction in industry, i.e. fuel switching, electrification, and adoption of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and to simulate plausible scenarios (base scenario and climate ambitious scenario) for curbing emissions in the iron and steel sector in the USA between 2010 and 2050. Results show that when the climate ambitious scenario is applied, the cumulative emissions into the atmosphere (2,158 Mt CO2) are reduced by 40% in comparison to the base scenario (3,608 Mt CO2). This decarbonization gap between both scenarios intensifies over time; in the year 2050, the CO2 intensity in the climate ambitious scenario is 81% lower in comparison to the base scenario. The study shows that major contributions to industry decarbonization can come from the further uptake of secondary steel production. Results show also that a carbon tax drives the decarbonization process but is not sufficient on its own. In addition, the uptake of innovative low-carbon breakthrough technologies is necessary. It is concluded that industrial electrification is counterproductive for climate change mitigation, if electricity is not provided by low-carbon sources. Overall, fuel switching, industrial electrification, and CCS adoption as single measures have a limited decarbonization impact, compared to an integrated approach that implements all the measures together providing a much more attractive solution for CO2 mitigation.
Budinis S, Krevor S, Mac Dowell N, et al., 2018, An assessment of CCS costs, barriers and potential, Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol: 22, Pages: 61-81, ISSN: 2211-467X
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Global decarbonisation scenarios include Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as a key technology to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the power and industrial sectors. However, few large scale CCS plants are operating worldwide. This mismatch between expectations and reality is caused by a series of barriers which are preventing this technology from being adopted more widely. The goal of this paper is to identify and review the barriers to CCS development, with a focus on recent cost estimates, and to assess the potential of CCS to enable access to fossil fuels without causing dangerous levels of climate change. The result of the review shows that no CCS barriers are exclusively technical, with CCS cost being the most significant hurdle in the short to medium term. In the long term, CCS is found to be very cost effective when compared with other mitigation options. Cost estimates exhibit a high range, which depends on process type, separation technology, CO2transport technique and storage site. CCS potential has been quantified by comparing the amount of fossil fuels that could be used globally with and without CCS. In modelled energy system transition pathways that limit global warming to less than 2 °C, scenarios without CCS result in 26% of fossil fuel reserves being consumed by 2050, against 37% being consumed when CCS is available. However, by 2100, the scenarios without CCS have only consumed slightly more fossil fuel reserves (33%), whereas scenarios with CCS available end up consuming 65% of reserves. It was also shown that the residual emissions from CCS facilities is the key factor limiting long term uptake, rather than cost. Overall, the results show that worldwide CCS adoption will be critical if fossil fuel reserves are to continue to be substantively accessed whilst still meeting climate targets.
Luh S, Budinis S, Schmidt TJ, et al., 2018, Decarbonisation of the Industrial Sector by means of Fuel Switching, Electrification and CCS, Editors: Friedl, Klemes, Radl, Varbanov, Wallek, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, Pages: 1311-1316
Budinis S, Giarola S, Sachs J, et al., 2017, Modelling the impacts of investors' decision making on decarbonisation pathways in industry, 10th Annual Meeting of the IAMC, Publisher: IAMC
The Paris Climate agreement calls for dramatic changes in the energy system. This will be challenging for demand sectors like industry, which is notoriously energy intensive. Although increased efficiency has proven to be suitable options to reduce energy and environmental impacts, stringent regulations on carbon will require this sector to undergo an unprecedented innovation effort, which will go well beyond cost efficiency measures to include the deployment of novel technologies and, most likely, of carbon capture and storage (CCS).This manuscript focuses on the uptake of novel technologies in the industrial sector and the barriers which might prevent or slow down the pace of innovation. Some of these barriers are technological as they depend on the availability and the technology readiness level of a specific technology. Others are instead related to the attitude that investors show towards innovative and the inherent level of risk. Among the many innovation options in the industrial sector, the focus here is on the uptake of the carbon capture and storage technologies.The industrial sector is modelled including the top-energy intensive industries, such as those manufacturing pulp and paper, iron and steel, chemicals and petrochemicals, the non-ferrous metals as well as non-metallic minerals. The simulations are carried out using a novel energy systems model, MUSE, the Modular energy systems Simulation Environment.
Giarola S, Budinis S, Sachs J, et al., 2017, Long-term decarbonisation scenarios in the industrial sector, International Energy Workshop
Decarbonisation targets will drive every sector in the energy system to rapidly adopt innovativetechnologies to achieve the dramatic emissions reductions required. Among all, sectors like in-dustry, which currently exhibit a very high energy intensity, are likely to undergo major changes.This manuscript focuses on the appraisal of the effects of a CO2tax in the investment and operationdecisions in industry. Within the larger modelling framework typical of an integrated assessmentmodel, the sector is modelled including the top-energy intensive industries, such as those man-ufacturing pulp and paper, iron and steel, chemicals and petrochemicals, the non-ferrous metalsas well as non-metallic minerals. The simulations are carried out using a novel energy systemsmodel, MUSE, the Modular Universal energy systems Simulation Environment model.
Budinis S, Mac Dowell N, Krevor S, et al., 2017, Can carbon capture and storage unlock `unburnable carbon'?, 13th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT), Publisher: Elsevier Science BV, Pages: 7504-7515, ISSN: 1876-6102
The concept of ‘unburnable carbon’ emerged in 2011, and stems from the observation that if all known fossil fuel reserves are extracted and converted to CO2(unabated), it would exceed the carbon budget and have a very significant effect on the climate. Therefore, if global warming is to be limited to the COP21 target, some of the known fossil fuel reserves should remain unburnt. Several recent reports have highlighted the scale of the challenge, drawing on scenarios of climate change mitigation and their implications for the projected consumption of fossil fuels. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical and available mitigation opportunity and its contributionto timely and cost-effective decarbonisation of the energy system is widely recognised. However, while some studies have considered the role of CCS in enabling access to more fossil fuels, no detailed analysis on this issue has been undertaken. This paper presents a critical review focusing on the technologies that can be applied to enable access to, or ‘unlock’, fossil fuel reserves in a way that will meet climate targets and mitigate climate change. It also quantifies the impact of CCS in unlocking unburnable carbon in the first and in the second half of the century.
Clark R, Budinis S, Hawkes A, et al., 2017, Analysis of power production and emission reduction through the use of biogas and carbon capture and storage, Editors: Espuna, Graells, Puigjaner, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, Pages: 2635-2640
Budinis S, Krevor S, Mac Dowell N, et al., 2016, Can technology unlock unburnable carbon?
In 2015, the Conference Of the Parties in Paris (COP21) reached a universal agreement on climate change with the aim of limiting global warming to below 2 °C. In order to stay below 2 °C, the total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released, or ‘carbon budget’ must be less than 1,000 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2. At the current emission rate, this budget will be eroded within the next thirty years. Meeting this target on a global scale is challenging and will require prompt and effective climate change mitigation action.The concept of ‘unburnable carbon’ emerged in 2011, and stems from theobservation that if all known fossil fuel reserves are extracted and converted to CO2 (unabated), it would exceed the carbon budget and have a very significant effect on the climate. Therefore, if global warming is to be limited to the COP21 target, some of the known fossil fuel reserves should remain unburnt.Several recent reports have highlighted the scale of the challenge, drawing on scenarios of climate change mitigation and their implications for the projected consumption of fossil fuels. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a critical and available mitigation opportunity that is often overlooked. The positive contribution of CCS technology to timely and cost-effective decarbonisation of the energy system is widely recognised. However, while some studies have considered the role of CCS in enabling access to more fossil fuels, no detailed analysis on this issue has been undertaken.This White Paper presents a critical review focusing on the technologies that can be applied to enable access to, or ‘unlock’, fossil fuel reserves in a way that will meet climate targets and mitigate climate change.The paper includes an introduction to the key issues of carbon budgets and fossil fuel reserves, a detailed analysis of the current status of CCS technology, as well as a synthesis of a multi-model comparison study on global climate change mitigation strat
Budinis S, Thornhill NF, 2016, Supercritical fluid recycle for surge control of CO2 centrifugal compressors, Computers & Chemical Engineering, Vol: 91, Pages: 329-342, ISSN: 0098-1354
This paper presents computer-based design and analysis of control systems for centrifugal compressors when the operating fluid is supercritical CO2.It reports a non-linear dynamic model including a main forward compression line and two different configurations for the recycle antisurge line. Disturbance scenarios are proposed for testing the configurations and performance indicators are suggested to evaluate control performance and power consumption of the compression system.The paper demonstrates that compared to the hot recycle, the process configuration including a cold gas recycle has better overall stability, but higher power consumption and lower values for the control performance indicators. Based on the previous considerations, the paper gives suggestions regarding the choice of the recycle configuration. Moreover it compares subcritical and supercritical compression during surge prevention and highlights the importance of the selection of the gas recycle configuration when full recycle is needed.
Budinis S, Thornhill NF, 2015, Control of centrifugal compressors via model predictive control for enhanced oil recovery applications, 2nd IFAC Workshop on Automatic Control in Offshore Oil and Gas Production OOGP 2015, Publisher: Elsevier, Pages: 9-14, ISSN: 1474-6670
This paper proposes a control system for integrated pressure and surge control of centrifugal compressors for enhanced oil recovery application. The proposed control system is based on linear model predictive control. A fully validated non-linear dynamic model was developed in order to simulate the operation of the compressor at full and partial load. The model of the compression system includes a main process line with the compressor and a recycle line with the antisurge recycle valve. Different disturbance and control tuning scenarios were tested and the response of the model predictive controller was analysed, evaluated and also compared with a traditional control system. Temperature effects have been taken into account in the model of the process and in the constraint formulation of the MPC optimization problem. The results show that the proposed control technique is able to meet the process demand while preventing surge and also minimizing the amount of gas recycle.
Budinis S, Thornhill NF, 2015, Supercritical gas recycle analysis for surge control of centrifugal compressors, 12th International Symposium on Process Systems Engineering (PSE) / 25th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE), Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, Pages: 1583-1588, ISSN: 1570-7946
Budinis S, Thornhill NF, 2014, An integrated control technique for compressor operation, United-Kingdom-Automatic-Control-Council (UKACC) 10th International Conference on Control (CONTROL), Publisher: IEEE, Pages: 444-449
Budinis S, Fabozzi D, Thornhill NF, 2013, A control technique based on compressor characteristics with applications to carbon capture and storage systems
Introduction: Compressors are vital pieces of equipment within the process industry and they are going to be important in the next few years for dealing with carbon dioxide from carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems. Compressor characteristics (also called compressor maps) represent the operation of the machine in a graphical form. They are provided by the manufacturer of the compressor together with the machine and they are generated via experiments at reference conditions. The most common compressor characteristics represent the pressure ratio of the machine (i.e. the ratio between the output pressure and the input pressure) as a function of inlet flowrate and rotational shaft speed. For a single speed machine there is a single characteristic curve rather than a map (where instead the same function is plotted more times for different shaft speeds). While the inlet flowrate of the machine is generally a boundary condition of the compression system, the rotational shaft speed is very often the manipulated variable of the control system for a variable speed compressor. State of the art and open questions: Steady state and dynamic simulations are routinely used by academics and practitioners to represent and analyse the behaviour of a compressor during different activities such as design, control and optimization of the machine. In the literature there are many examples of compressor dynamic models (Botros et al., 1991, Venturini, 2005, Camporeale et al., 2006). Different techniques have been proposed for simulation and control applications. However the models found in the literature do not rely much on the compressor characteristics. The reason for that is that they usually represent simple compressors i.e. single stage lab-size machine that can be tested in a lab to provide the parameters needed for the model calibration. This type of machine is closer to an ideal compressor than an industrial compressor. For this reason a simplified model cannot capture accurate
Pastorino R, Budinis S, Curro F, et al., 2011, Syngas Fuel Cells: from Process Development to Risk Assessment, 10th International Conference on Chemical and Process Engineering, Publisher: AIDIC SERVIZI SRL, Pages: 1081-1086, ISSN: 1974-9791
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