Publications

BibTex format

@article{Imai:2015:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003719,
author = {Imai, N and Dorigatti, I and Cauchemez, S and Ferguson, NM},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0003719},
journal = {PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
title = {Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003719},
volume = {9},
year = {2015}
}

Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundEstimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infectionsare asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection.With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robustestimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden ofdisease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions.Methodology/Principal FindingsThe force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) for denguewere estimated from non-serotype (IgG) and serotype-specific (PRNT) age-stratified seroprevalencesurveys identified from the literature. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from1–4. Assuming that two heterologous infections result in complete immunity produced up totwo-fold higher estimates of R0 than when tertiary and quaternary infections were included.λ estimated from IgG data were comparable to the sum of serotype-specific forces of infectionderived from PRNT data, particularly when inter-serotype interactions were allowed for.Conclusions/SignificanceOur analysis highlights the highly heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. How underlyingassumptions about serotype interactions and immunity affect the relationship betweenthe force of infection and R0 will have implications for control planning. While PRNTdata provides the maximum information, our study shows that even the much cheaperELISA-based assays would provide comparable baseline estimates of overall transmissionintensity which will be an important consideration in resource-constrained settings.
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Cauchemez,S
AU  - Ferguson,NM
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003719
PY  - 2015///
SN  - 1935-2735
TI  - Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries
T2  - PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003719
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/25123
VL  - 9
ER  -

Download

DrSimonCauchemez

Contact

Location

Summary

Citation

BibTex format

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)