Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

DrSimoneCenci

Business School

Advanced Research Fellow - Data Scientist
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

s.cenci Website CV

 
 
//

Location

 

Business School BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Cenci:2019:10.1038/s41559-019-0879-1,
author = {Cenci, S and Saavedra, S},
doi = {10.1038/s41559-019-0879-1},
journal = {Nature Ecology and Evolution},
pages = {912--918},
title = {Non-parametric estimation of the structural stability of non-equilibrium community dynamics},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-0879-1},
volume = {3},
year = {2019}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Environmental factors are important drivers of community dynamics. Yet, despite extensive research, it is still extremely challenging to predict the effect of environmental changes on the dynamics of ecological communities. Equilibrium- and model-based approaches have provided a theoretical framework with which to investigate this problem systematically. However, the applicability of this framework to empirical data has been limited because equilibrium dynamics of populations within communities are seldom observed in nature and exact equations for community dynamics are rarely known. To overcome these limitations, here we develop a data-driven non-parametric framework to estimate the tolerance of non-equilibrium community dynamics to environmental perturbations (that is, their structural stability). Following our approach, we show that in non-equilibrium systems, structural stability can vary significantly across time. As a case study, we investigate the structural stability of a rocky intertidal community with dynamics at the edge of chaos. The structural stability of the community as a whole exhibited a clear seasonal pattern, despite the persistent chaotic dynamics of individual populations. Importantly, we show that this seasonal pattern of structural stability is causally driven by sea temperature. Overall, our approach provides novel opportunities for estimating the tolerance of ecological communities to environmental changes within a non-parametric framework.
AU  - Cenci,S
AU  - Saavedra,S
DO  - 10.1038/s41559-019-0879-1
EP  - 918
PY  - 2019///
SN  - 2397-334X
SP  - 912
TI  - Non-parametric estimation of the structural stability of non-equilibrium community dynamics
T2  - Nature Ecology and Evolution
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-0879-1
UR  - https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000470917200014&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-019-0879-1
VL  - 3
ER  -
Download