Imperial College London
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Professor Sarah Fidler BSc. MBBS. FRCP. PhD

Faculty of Medicine, Department of Infectious Disease

Professor of HIV and Communicable Diseases
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 6230s.fidler

 
 
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Location

 

clinical trial centre Winston Churchill wingMedical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Pickles:2021:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009301,
author = {Pickles, M and Cori, A and Probert, WJM and Sauter, R and Hinch, R and Fidler, S and Ayles, H and Bock, P and Donnell, D and Wilson, E and Piwowar-Manning, E and Floyd, S and Hayes, RJ and Fraser, C and HPTN, 071 PopART Study Team},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009301},
journal = {PLoS Comput Biol},
title = {PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009301},
volume = {17},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities, especially those related to the sexual network within which HIV transmission occurs. An individual-based model, which explicitly models sexual partnerships, is thus often the most natural type of model to choose. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, a computationally efficient individual-based model capable of simulating 50 years of an HIV epidemic in a large, high-prevalence community in under a minute. We show how the model calibrates within a Bayesian inference framework to detailed age- and sex-stratified data from multiple sources on HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV status, ART status, and viral suppression for an HPTN 071 (PopART) study community in Zambia, and present future projections of HIV prevalence and incidence for this community in the absence of trial intervention.
AU  - Pickles,M
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Probert,WJM
AU  - Sauter,R
AU  - Hinch,R
AU  - Fidler,S
AU  - Ayles,H
AU  - Bock,P
AU  - Donnell,D
AU  - Wilson,E
AU  - Piwowar-Manning,E
AU  - Floyd,S
AU  - Hayes,RJ
AU  - Fraser,C
AU  - HPTN,071 PopART Study Team
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009301
PY  - 2021///
TI  - PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial.
T2  - PLoS Comput Biol
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009301
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34473700
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/92579
VL  - 17
ER  -
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