Imperial College London
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DrSethFlaxman

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Mathematics

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Contact

 

s.flaxman

 
 
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Location

 

522Huxley BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Wolock:2019,
author = {Wolock, TM and Flaxman, SR and Eaton, JW},
publisher = {arXiv},
title = {Inferring HIV incidence trends and transmission dynamics with a spatio-temporal HIV epidemic model},
url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1912.01590v1},
year = {2019}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIVincidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV preventionpolicy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current,widely used models infer incidence from survey and surveillance seroprevalencedata, but they require unrealistic assumptions about spatial independenceacross spatial units. In this study, we present an epidemic model of HIV thatexplicitly simulates the spatial dynamics of HIV over many small, interactingareal units. By integrating all available population-level data, we are able toinfer not only spatio-temporally varying incidence, but also ART initiationrates and patient counts. Our study illustrates the feasibility of applyingcompartmental models to larger inferential problems than those to which theyare typically applied, as well as the value of data fusion approaches toinfectious disease modeling.
AU  - Wolock,TM
AU  - Flaxman,SR
AU  - Eaton,JW
PB  - arXiv
PY  - 2019///
TI  - Inferring HIV incidence trends and transmission dynamics with a spatio-temporal HIV epidemic model
UR  - http://arxiv.org/abs/1912.01590v1
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/75563
ER  -
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