Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorSimonGregson

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor in Demography and Behavioural Science
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3279s.gregson

 
 
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Location

 

LG27Praed StreetSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Smit:2018:10.1097/QAD.0000000000001754,
author = {Smit, M and Olney, J and Ford, NP and Vitoria, M and Gregson, S and Vassall, A and Hallett, TB},
doi = {10.1097/QAD.0000000000001754},
journal = {AIDS},
pages = {773--782},
title = {The growing burden of non-communicable disease among persons living with HIV in Zimbabwe},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000001754},
volume = {32},
year = {2018}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Objectives:We  aim  to  characterize  the  future  noncommunicable  disease  (NCD)burden in Zimbabwe to identify future health system priorities.Methods:We  developed  an  individual-based  multidisease  model  for  Zimbabwe,simulating births, deaths, infection with HIV and progression and key NCD [asthma,chronic  kidney  disease  (CKD),  depression,  diabetes,  hypertension,  stroke,  breast,cervical, colorectal,  liver,  oesophageal,  prostate  and  all  other  cancers].  The  modelwas parameterized using national and regional surveillance and epidemiological data.Demographic and NCD burden projections were generated for 2015 to 2035.Results:The model predicts that mean age of PLHIV will increase from 31 to 45 yearsbetween 2015 and 2035 (compared with 20 –26 in uninfected individuals). Conse-quently, the proportion suffering from at least one key NCD in 2035 will increase by26% in PLHIV and 6% in uninfected. Adult PLHIV will be twice as likely to suffer from atleast one key NCD in 2035 compared with uninfected adults; with 15.2% of all keyNCDs diagnosed in adult PLHIV, whereas contributing only 5% of the Zimbabweanpopulation.  The  most  prevalent  NCDs  will  be  hypertension,  CKD,  depression  andcancers. This demographic and disease shift in PLHIV is mainly because of reductions inincidence and the success of ART scale-up leading to longer life expectancy, and to alesser extent, the cumulative exposure to HIV and ART.Conclusion:NCD services will need to be expanded in Zimbabwe. They will need tobe integrated into HIV care programmes, although the growing NCD burden amongstuninfected  individuals  presenting  opportunities  for  additional  services  developedwithin HIV care to benefit HIV-negative persons.
AU  - Smit,M
AU  - Olney,J
AU  - Ford,NP
AU  - Vitoria,M
AU  - Gregson,S
AU  - Vassall,A
AU  - Hallett,TB
DO  - 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001754
EP  - 782
PY  - 2018///
SN  - 0269-9370
SP  - 773
TI  - The growing burden of non-communicable disease among persons living with HIV in Zimbabwe
T2  - AIDS
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000001754
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/55713
VL  - 32
ER  -
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