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Schmit N, Nayagam A, Lemoine M, et al., 2023, Cost-effectiveness of different monitoring strategies in a screening and treatment programme for hepatitis B in The Gambia, Journal of Global Health, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2047-2978
Background:Clinical management of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is complex and access to antiviral treatment remains limited in sub-Saharan Africa. International guidelines recommend monitoring at least annually for disease progression among HBV-infected people not meeting treatment criteria at initial diagnosis. This study aimed to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for monitoring.Methods:We used a mathematical model of HBV transmission and natural history, calibrated to all available West African data, to project the population-level health impact, costs and cost-effectiveness of different monitoring strategies for HBV-infected individuals not initially eligible for antiviral treatment. We assumed that these patients were found in the year 2020 in a hypothetical community-based screening programme in The Gambia. Monitoring frequencies were varied between every 5 and every 1 year and targeted different age groups.Results:The currently recommended annual monitoring frequency was likely to be not cost-effective in comparison with other strategies in this setting. 5-yearly monitoring in 15-45-year olds, at US$338 per disability-adjusted life year averted, had the highest probability of being the most effective cost-effective monitoring strategy.Conclusions:Monitoring less frequently than once a year is a cost-effective strategy in a community-based HBV screening and treatment programme in The Gambia, with the optimal strategy depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold. Efficiencies may be gained by prioritising the 15-45-year age group for more intensive monitoring.
Rao A, Moorhouse L, Maswera R, et al., 2022, Status of the HIV epidemic in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, PLoS One, Vol: 17, Pages: 1-19, ISSN: 1932-6203
BackgroundManicaland province in eastern Zimbabwe has a high incidence of HIV. Completion of the seventh round of the Manicaland Survey in 2018–2019 provided the opportunity to assess the state of the epidemic prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims were to: a) estimate HIV seroprevalence and assess whether prevalence has declined since the last round of the survey (2012–2013), b) describe and analyse the socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors for HIV infection and c) describe the HIV treatment cascade.MethodsParticipants were administered individual questionnaires collecting data on socio-demographic characteristics, sexual relationships, HIV prevention methods and treatment access, and were tested for HIV. Descriptive analyses were followed by univariate and multivariate analyses of risk factors for HIV seropositvity using logistic regression modelling based on the proximate-determinants framework.ResultsHIV prevalence was 11.3% [95% CI; 10.6–12.0] and was higher in females than males up to 45–49 years. Since 2012–2013 HIV prevalence has significantly declined in 30–44 year-olds in males, and 20–44 year-olds in females. The HIV epidemic has aged since 2012–2013, with an increase in the mean age of HIV positive persons from 38 to 41 years. Socio-demographic determinants of HIV prevalence were church denomination in males, site-type, wealth-status, employment sector and alcohol use in females, and age and marital status in both sexes. Behavioural determinants associated with increased odds of HIV were a higher number of regular sexual partners (lifetime), non-regular sexual partners (lifetime) and condom use in both sexes, and early sexual debut and concomitant STIs in females; medical circumcision was protective in males. HIV status awareness among participants testing positive in our study was low at 66.2%. ART coverage amongst all participants testing positive for HIV in our study was 65.
Sow A, Lemoine M, Toure PS, et al., 2022, HBV continuum of care using community- and hospital-based screening interventions in Senegal: Results from the PROLIFICA programme, JHEP REPORTS, Vol: 4
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Whittaker C, Watson O, Alvarez-Moreno C, et al., 2022, Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties On SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 75, Pages: e224-e233, ISSN: 1058-4838
BackgroundThe public health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear.MethodsUsing a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care.ResultsThe impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R=1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalisation) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics.ConclusionsAdvances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focussed on hospitalised-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.
Mohamed Z, Scott N, Nayagam S, et al., 2022, Cost effectiveness of simplified HCV screening-and-treatment interventions for people who inject drugs in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania, International Journal of Drug Policy, Vol: 99, ISSN: 0955-3959
Cooke GS, Nayagam S, 2021, Liver disease: at the heart of public health challenges for Europe in the 21st century, LANCET, Vol: 399, Pages: 9-10, ISSN: 0140-6736
Echeverria-Londono S, Li X, Toor J, et al., 2021, How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?, BMC PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 21
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de Villiers M, Nayagam AS, Hallett T, 2021, The impact of the timely birth-dose vaccine on the global elimination of hepatitis B, Nature Communications, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 2041-1723
In 2016 the World Health Organization set the goal of eliminating hepatitis B globally by 2030. Horizontal transmission has been greatly reduced in most countries by scaling up coverage of the infant HBV vaccine series, and vertical transmission is therefore becoming increasingly dominant. Here we show that scaling up timely hepatitis B birth dose vaccination to 90% of new-borns in 110 low- and middle-income countries by 2030 could prevent 710,000 (580,000 to 890,000) deaths in the 2020 to 2030 birth cohorts compared to status quo, with the greatest benefits in Africa. Maintaining this could lead to elimination by 2030 in the Americas, but not before 2059 in Africa. Drops in coverage due to disruptions in 2020 may lead to 15,000 additional deaths, mostly in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. Delays in planned scale-up could lead to an additional 580,000 deaths globally in the 2020 to 2030 birth cohorts.
Vollmer MAC, Radhakrishnan S, Kont MD, et al., 2021, The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of attendance at emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study, BMC Health Services Research, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 1472-6963
Background Hospitals in England have undergone considerable change to address the surgein demand imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this on emergencydepartment (ED) attendances is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies.Methods This analysis is an observational study of ED attendances at the Imperial CollegeHealthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT). We calibrated auto-regressive integrated moving averagetime-series models of ED attendances using historic (2015-2019) data. Forecasted trendswere compared to present year ICHNT data for the period between March 12, 2020 (whenEngland implemented the first COVID-19 public health measure) and May 31, 2020. Wecompared ICHTN trends with publicly available regional and national data. Lastly, wecompared hospital admissions made via the ED and in-hospital mortality at ICHNT duringthe present year to the historic 5-year average.Results ED attendances at ICHNT decreased by 35% during the period after the firstlockdown was imposed on March 12, 2020 and before May 31, 2020, reflecting broadertrends seen for ED attendances across all England regions, which fell by approximately 50%for the same time frame. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst thoseaged <65 years and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport) andnot correlated with any of the spatial dependencies analysed such as increasing distance frompostcode of residence to the hospital. Emergency admissions of patients without COVID-19after March 12, 2020 fell by 48%; we did not observe a significant change to the crudemortality risk in patients without COVID-19 (RR 1.13, 95%CI 0.94-1.37, p=0.19).Conclusions Our study findings reflect broader trends seen across England and give anindication how emergency healthcare seeking has drastically changed. At ICHNT, we findthat a larger proportion arrived by ambulance and that hospitalisation outcomes of patientswithout COVID-19 did not differ from previous years. The ext
Toor J, Echeverria-Londono S, Li X, et al., 2021, Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world, eLife, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2050-084X
Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future. Funding: VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (auth
Christen P, D'Aeth J, Lochen A, et al., 2021, The J-IDEA pandemic planner: a framework for implementing hospital provision interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic, Medical Care, Vol: 59, Pages: 371-378, ISSN: 0025-7079
Background : Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patientsrequiring urgent life-saving treatment for COVID-19, whilst retaining capacity for otheremergency conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by healthcareproviders and policymakers during the pandemic. Health systems must be wellpreparedto cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementinginterventions to ensure adequate access to care. We developed the first planning toolfor the COVID-19 pandemic to account for how hospital provision interventions (suchas cancelling elective surgery, setting up field hospitals, or hiring retired staff) will affectthe capacity of hospitals to provide life-saving care.Methods : We conducted a review of interventions implemented or considered in 12 European countries in March-April 2020, an evaluation of their impact on capacity, anda review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients. This information wasused to develop a planner capable of estimating the impact of specific interventions ondoctors, nurses, beds and respiratory support equipment. We applied this to ascenario-based case study of one intervention, the set-up of field hospitals in England,under varying levels of COVID-19 patients.Results : The J-IDEA pandemic planner is a hospital planning tool that allows hospitaladministrators, policymakers and other decision-makers to calculate the amount ofcapacity in terms of beds, staff and crucial medical equipment obtained byimplementing the interventions. Flexible assumptions on baseline capacity, the numberof hospitalisations, staff-to-beds ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19 make theplanner adaptable to multiple settings. The results of the case study show that whilefield hospitals alleviate the burden on the number of beds available, this intervention isfutile unless the deficit of critical care nurses is addressed first.Discussion : The tool supports decision-makers in delivering a fast and effectiveresponse to
Schmit N, Nayagam S, Thursz M, et al., 2021, The global burden of chronic hepatitis B virus infection: comparison of country-level prevalence estimates from four research groups, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 50, Pages: 560-569, ISSN: 0300-5771
Background: Progress towards viral hepatitis elimination goals relies on accurate estimates of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection prevalence. We compared existing sources of the most recent country-level estimates from 2013-2017 to investigate the extent and underlying drivers of differences between them. Methods: The four commonly cited sources of global prevalence estimates, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Schweitzer et al, World Health Organization (WHO) and CDA Foundation, were compared by calculating pairwise differences between sets of estimates and assessing their within-country variation. Differences in underlying empirical data and modelling methods were investigated as contributors to differences in sub-Saharan African estimates. Results: The four sets of estimates across all ages were comparable overall and agreed on the global distribution of HBV burden. WHO and CDA produced the most similar estimates, differing by a median of 0.8 percentage points. Larger discrepancies were seen in estimates of prevalence in children under 5 years of age and in sub-Saharan African countries, where the median pairwise differences were 2.7 and 2.4 percentage points for all age prevalence and in children, respectively. Recency and representativeness of included data, and different modelling assumptions of the age distribution of HBV burden, seemed to contribute to these differences. Conclusion: Current prevalence estimates, particularly those from WHO and CDA based on more recent empirical data, provide a useful resource to assess the population-level burden of chronic HBV infection. However, further seroprevalence data in young children is needed particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This is a priority as monitoring progress towards elimination depends on improved knowledge of prevalence in this age group.
Nayagam AS, Chan P, Zhao K, et al., 2021, Investment case for a comprehensive package of interventions against Hepatitis B in China; applied modelling to help national strategy planning, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 72, Pages: 743-752, ISSN: 1058-4838
Background:In2016,the first globalviralhepatitiselimination targetswere endorsed. Anestimated one-third of the world’schronic HBV infected population live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countriesto initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis. We present the investment case for the scale-up of a comprehensive package of HBV interventions. Methods:Adynamic simulation modelof HBV was developedand used to simulate the Chinese HBV epidemic. We evaluated the impact, costs and return on investment of a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs. Results:Despitethe successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60millionpeople still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7millionHBV-related cancer deaths between 2015-2030. This could be reduced by 2.1million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return-on-investment to society, of 1.57US$ per US$ invested. Conclusions:Increases in HBV-related deaths for the next few decades pose a major public health threatin China. Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment is requiredto mitigate this risk. This investment case approachprovides a real-world example of howapplied modellingcansupportnational dialogue and inform policy planning.
Li X, Mukandavire C, Cucunuba ZM, et al., 2021, Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study, The Lancet, Vol: 397, Pages: 398-408, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundThe past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030.Methods16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort.FindingsWe estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52–88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30–48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36–58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52–66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93–150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39–76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25–52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59–81) reduction in lifetime mortality in t
Middleton P, Perez-Guzman PN, Cheng A, et al., 2021, Characteristics and outcomes of clinically diagnosed RT-PCR swab negative COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study, Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 2045-2322
Patients with strong clinical features of COVID-19 with negative real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) SARS-CoV-2 testing are not currently included in official statistics. The scale, characteristics and clinical relevance of this group are not well described. We performed a retrospective cohort study in two large London hospitals to characterize the demographic, clinical, and hospitalization outcome characteristics of swab-negative clinical COVID-19 patients. We found 1 in 5 patients with a negative swab and clinical suspicion of COVID-19 received a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 within clinical documentation, discharge summary or death certificate. We compared this group to a similar swab positive cohort and found similar demographic composition, symptomology and laboratory findings. Swab-negative clinical COVID-19 patients had better outcomes, with shorter length of hospital stay, reduced need for >60% supplementary oxygen and reduced mortality. Patients with strong clinical features of COVID-19 that are swab-negative are a common clinical challenge. Health systems must recognize and plan for the management of swab-negative patients in their COVID-19 clinical management, infection control policies and epidemiological assessments.
Heffernan A, Ma Y, Nayagam S, et al., 2021, Economic and epidemiological evaluation of interventions to reduce the burden of hepatitis C in Yunnan province, China, PLoS One, Vol: 16, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 1932-6203
BackgroundThe paradigm shift in hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment options in the last five years has raised the prospect of eliminating the disease as a global health threat. This will require a step-change in the number being treated with the new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Given constrained budgets and competing priorities, policy makers need information on how to scale-up access to HCV treatment. To inform such decisions, we examined the cost effectiveness of screening and treatment interventions in Yunnan, China.Methods and findingsWe simulated the HCV epidemic using a previously published model of HCV transmission and disease progression, calibrated to Yunnan data, and implemented a range of treatment and screening interventions from 2019. We incorporated treatment, diagnosis, and medical costs (expressed in 2019 US Dollars, USD) to estimate the lifetime benefits and costs of interventions. Using this model, we asked: is introducing DAAs cost effective from a healthcare sector perspective; what is the optimal combination of screening interventions; and what is the societal return on investment of intervention? The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of switching to DAAs with a median cost of 7,400 USD (50,000 Chinese Yuan) per course is 500 USD/disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted; at a threshold of 50% of Yunnan gross domestic product (2,600 USD), switching to DAAs is cost effective 94% of the time. At this threshold, the optimal, cost-effective intervention comprises screening people who inject drugs, those in HIV care, men who have sex with men, and ensuring access to DAAs for all those newly diagnosed with HCV. For each USD invested in this intervention, there is an additional 0·80 USD (95% credible interval: 0·17–1·91) returned through reduced costs of disease or increased productivity. Returns on investment are lower (and potentially negative) if a sufficiently long-term horizon, encompassing the full stream
Londono SE, Li X, Toor J, et al., 2021, How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?
<jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:p>Deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide. To quantify the importance of vaccination, it is necessary to estimate the burden averted through vaccination. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established to estimate the health impact of vaccination. We describe the methods implemented by the VIMC to estimate impact by calendar year, birth year and year of vaccination (YoV). The calendar and birth year methods estimate impact in a particular year and over the lifetime of a particular birth cohort, respectively. The YoV method estimates the impact of a particular year’s vaccination activities through the use of impact ratios which have no stratification and stratification by activity type and/or birth cohort. Furthermore, we detail an impact extrapolation (IE) method for use between coverage scenarios. We compare the methods, focusing on YoV for hepatitis B, measles and yellow fever. We find that the YoV methods estimate similar impact with routine vaccinations but have greater yearly variation when campaigns occur with the birth cohort stratification. The IE performs well for the YoV methods, providing a time-efficient mechanism for updates to impact estimates. These methods provide a robust set of approaches to quantify vaccination impact.</jats:p>
Hui Z, Nayagam S, Chan P, et al., 2021, Progress towards elimination of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus infection in China: a modelling analysis., Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Vol: 99, Pages: 10-18, ISSN: 0042-9686
Objective: To determine the projected burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in China, the intervention strategies that can eliminate mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) by 2030 or earlier and the measurable parameters that can be used to monitor progress towards this target. Methods: We developed a dynamic, sex- and age-stratified model of the HBV epidemic in China, calibrated using hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and e antigen (HBeAg) prevalence data from sequential national serosurveys (1979-2014) and the numbers of HBV-related cancer deaths (2012). We determined whether China can achieve elimination of MTCT of HBV by 2030 under current prevention interventions. We modelled various intervention scenarios to represent different coverage levels of birth-dose HBV vaccination, hepatitis B immunoglobulin to newborns of HBsAg-positive mothers and antiviral therapy (tenofovir) to HBeAg-positive pregnant women. Findings: We project that, if current levels of prevention interventions are maintained, China will achieve the elimination target by 2029. By modelling various intervention scenarios, we found that this can be brought forward to 2025 by increasing coverage of birth-dose vaccination, or to 2024 by the administration of tenofovir to HBeAg-positive pregnant women. We found that achievement of the target by 2025 would be predicted by a measurement of less than 2% MTCT in 2020. Conclusion: Our results highlight how high-quality national data can be combined with modelling in monitoring the elimination of MTCT of HBV. By demonstrating the impact of increased interventions on target achievement dates, we anticipate that other high-burden countries will be motivated to strengthen HBV prevention policies.
Daunt A, Perez-Guzman PN, Cafferkey J, et al., 2020, Factors associated with reattendance to emergency services following COVID-19 hospitalization, Journal of Medical Virology, Vol: 93, Pages: 1250-1252, ISSN: 0146-6615
McCabe R, Schmit N, Christen P, et al., 2020, Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic, BMC Medicine, Vol: 18, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1741-7015
BackgroundTo calculate hospital surge capacity, achieved via hospital provision interventions implemented for the emergency treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other patients through March to May 2020; to evaluate the conditions for admitting patients for elective surgery under varying admission levels of COVID-19 patients.MethodsWe analysed National Health Service (NHS) datasets and literature reviews to estimate hospital care capacity before the pandemic (pre-pandemic baseline) and to quantify the impact of interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, deployment of former medical staff and deployment of newly qualified medical staff) for treatment of adult COVID-19 patients, focusing on general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators.ResultsNHS England would not have had sufficient capacity to treat all COVID-19 and other patients in March and April 2020 without the hospital provision interventions, which alleviated significant shortfalls in CC nurses, CC and G&A beds and CC junior doctors. All elective surgery can be conducted at normal pre-pandemic levels provided the other interventions are sustained, but only if the daily number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 1550 in the whole of England. If the other interventions are not maintained, then elective surgery can only be conducted if the number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 320. However, there is greater national capacity to treat G&A patients: without interventions, it takes almost 10,000 G&A COVID-19 patients before any G&A elective patients would be unable to be accommodated.ConclusionsUnless COVID-19 hospitalisations drop to low levels, there is a continued need to enhance critical care capacity in England with field hospitals, use of private hospitals or deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff to allow some or all elective surge
Forlano R, Mullish BH, Mukherjee SK, et al., 2020, In-hospital mortality is associated with inflammatory response in NAFLD patients admitted for COVID-19, PLoS One, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1932-6203
Background & aimsAlthough metabolic risk factors are associated with more severe COVID-19, there is little evidence on outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We here describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of NAFLD patients in a cohort hospitalised for COVID-19.MethodsThis study included all consecutive patients admitted for COVID-19 between February and April 2020 at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, with either imaging of the liver available dated within one year from the admission or a known diagnosis of NAFLD. Clinical data and early weaning score (EWS) were recorded. NAFLD diagnosis was based on imaging or past medical history and patients were stratified for Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index. Clinical endpoints were admission to intensive care unit (ICU)and in-hospital mortality.Results561 patients were admitted. Overall, 193 patients were included in the study. Fifty nine patients (30%) died, 9 (5%) were still in hospital, and 125 (65%) were discharged. The NAFLD cohort (n = 61) was significantly younger (60 vs 70.5 years, p = 0.046) at presentation compared to the non-NAFLD (n = 132). NAFLD diagnosis was not associated with adverse outcomes. However, the NAFLD group had higher C reactive protein (CRP) (107 vs 91.2 mg/L, p = 0.05) compared to non-NAFLD(n = 132). Among NAFLD patients, male gender (p = 0.01), ferritin (p = 0.003) and EWS (p = 0.047) were associated with in-hospital mortality, while the presence of intermediate/high risk FIB-4 or liver cirrhosis was not.ConclusionThe presence of NAFLD per se was not associated with worse outcomes in patients hospitalised for COVID-19. Though NAFLD patients were younger on admission, disease stage was not associated with clinical outcomes. Yet, mortality was associated with gender and a pronounced inflammatory response in the NAFLD group.
Forlano R, Mullish B, Mukherjee S, et al., 2020, 450 - In-hospital mortality is associated with inflammatory response in NAFLD patients admitted for COVID-19, Hepatology, Vol: 72, Pages: 282A-283A, ISSN: 0270-9139
Daunt A, Perez-Guzman PN, Liew F, et al., 2020, Validity of the UK early access to medicines scheme criteria for Remdesivir use in patients with COVID-19 disease, Journal of Infection, Vol: 81, Pages: 666-668, ISSN: 0163-4453
Lazarus JV, Picchio CA, Nayagam S, et al., 2020, Strengthening vaccine confidence during the COVID-19 pandemic: A new opportunity for global hepatitis B virus elimination, JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY, Vol: 73, Pages: 490-492, ISSN: 0168-8278
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de Villiers MJ, Gamkrelidze I, Hallett TB, et al., 2020, Modelling hepatitis B virus infection and impact of timely birth dose vaccine: A comparison of two simulation models, PLoS One, Vol: 15, Pages: 1-16, ISSN: 1932-6203
Hepatitis B is a global epidemic that requires carefully orchestrated vaccination initiatives in geographical regions of medium to high endemicity to reach the World Health Organization’s elimination targets by 2030. This study compares two widely-used deterministic hepatitis B models—the Imperial HBV model and the CDA Foundation’s PRoGReSs—based on their predicted outcomes in four countries. The impact of scaling up of the timely birth dose of the hepatitis B vaccine is also investigated. The two models predicted largely similar outcomes for the impact of vaccination programmes on the projected numbers of new cases and deaths under high levels of the infant hepatitis B vaccine series. However, scenarios for the scaling up of the infant hepatitis B vaccine series had a larger impact in the PRoGReSs model than in the Imperial model due to the infant vaccine series directly leading to the reduction of perinatal transmission in the PRoGReSs model, but not in the Imperial model. Meanwhile, scaling up of the timely birth dose vaccine had a greater impact on the outcomes of the Imperial hepatitis B model than in the PRoGReSs model due to the greater protection that the birth dose vaccine confers to infants in the Imperial model compared to the PRoGReSs model. These differences underlie the differences in projections made by the models under some circumstances. Both sets of assumptions are consistent with available data and reveal a structural uncertainty that was not apparent in either model in isolation. Those relying on projections from models should consider outputs from both models and this analysis provides further evidence of the benefits of systematic model comparison for enhancing modelling analyses.
Perez Guzman PN, Daunt A, Mukherjee S, et al., 2020, Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a multi-ethnic London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 2020, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 1058-4838
Background: Emerging evidence suggests ethnic minorities are disproportionatelyaffected by COVID-19. Detailed clinical analyses of multi-cultural hospitalized patientcohorts remain largely undescribed.Methods: We performed regression, survival andcumulative competing risk analyses to evaluate factors associated with mortality inpatients admitted for COVID-19 in three large London hospitals between February 25and April 5, censored as of May 1, 2020.Results: Of 614 patients (median age 69years, (IQR 25) and 62% male), 381 (62%) had been discharged alive, 178 (29%)died and 55 (9%) remained hospitalized at censoring. Severe hypoxemia (aOR 4.25,95%CI 2.36-7.64), leukocytosis (aOR 2.35, 95%CI 1.35-4.11), thrombocytopenia (aOR1.01, 95%CI 1.00-1.01, increase per 10x9decrease), severe renal impairment (aOR5.14, 95%CI 2.65-9.97), and low albumin (aOR 1.06, 95%CI 1.02-1.09, increase per gdecrease) were associated with death. Forty percent (244) were from black, Asian andother minority ethnic (BAME) groups, 38% (235) white and for 22% (135) ethnicity wasunknown. BAME patients were younger and had fewer comorbidities. Whilst theunadjusted odds of death did not differ by ethnicity, when adjusting for age, sex andcomorbidities, black patients were at higher odds of death compared to whites (aOR1.69, 95%CI 1.00-2.86). This association was stronger when further adjusting foradmission severity (aOR 1.85 95% CI 1.06-3.24). Conclusions: BAME patients were over-represented in our cohort and, whenaccounting for demographic and clinical profile of admission, black patients were atincreased odds of death. Further research is needed into biologic drivers of differencesin COVID-19 outcomes by ethnicity.
Mohamed Z, Scott N, Al-Kurdi D, et al., 2020, Cost-effectiveness of strategies to improve HCV screening, linkage-to-care and treatment in remand prison settings in England., Liver International, Vol: 40, Pages: 2950-2960, ISSN: 1478-3223
BACKGROUND: A simplified cascade-of-care may improve screening and treatment uptake among incarcerated individuals. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of traditional and simplified screening and treatment in a London remand prison. METHODS: Using empirical data from Her Majesty's Prison (HMP) Wormwood Scrubs, London, we designed a decision tree and Markov transition state model using national average data for HCV screening and treatment for the base-case scenario. This was compared two alternative strategies; (1) general prison population screening and treatment and (2) prioritising screening and treatment among people who inject drugs (PWID) combined with general prison population screening and treatment. Strategies varied the rates of screening (47-90%), linkage-to-care (60-86%) and treatment (21-85%). Cost, utility and disease transition rates were obtained from existing literature. Outcome measures were; screening, treatment and disease-related costs per admitted individual, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each intervention. All costs and utilities were discounted at a rate of 3.5% per annum. Both univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses have been conducted. RESULTS: In our cohort of 5,239 incarcerated individuals with an estimated chronic HCV prevalence of 2.6%, all strategy ICER values (£3,565-10,300) fell below the national willingness to pay threshold (£30,000). Increased successful treatment (7-54%) was observed by an optimising cascade-of-care. A robust sensitivity analysis identified treatment cost of, QALY for mild liver disease and probability of completing treatment as important factors that impact the ICER value. CONCLUSION: In our remand setting, optimising adherence to the cascade-of-care is cost-effective. Where universal screening is not practical, a stratified approach focused on intensive screening and treatment of PWID also results in increased treatment
Nathwani R, Mukherjee S, Forlano R, et al., 2020, Letter: liver disease and COVID-19 - not the perfect storm, Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Vol: 52, Pages: 572-574, ISSN: 0269-2813
This article is linked to Garrido et al papers. To view these articles, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.15813 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.15886.
Vollmer M, Radhakrishnan S, Kont M, et al., 2020, Report 29: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study
The health care system in England has been highly affected by the surge in demand due to patients afflicted by COVID-19. Yet the impact of the pandemic on the care seeking behaviour of patients and thus on Emergency department (ED) services is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies. In this report, we aimed to assess how the reorganisation of hospital care and admission policies to respond to the COVID-19 epidemic affected ED attendances and emergency hospital admissions. We performed time-series analyses of present year vs historic (2015-2019) trends of ED attendances between March 12 and May 31 at two large central London hospitals part of Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT) and compared these to regional and national trends. Historic attendances data to ICHNT and publicly available NHS situation reports were used to calibrate time series auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting models. We thus predicted the (conterfactual) expected number of ED attendances between March 12 (when the first public health measure leading to lock-down started in England) to May 31, 2020 (when the analysis was censored) at ICHNT, at all acute London Trusts and nationally. The forecasted trends were compared to observed data for the same periods of time. Lastly, we analysed the trends at ICHNT disaggregating by mode of arrival, distance from postcode of patient residence to hospital and primary diagnosis amongst those that were subsequently admitted to hospital and compared these data to an average for the same period of time in the years 2015 to 2019.During the study period (January 1 to May 31, 2020) there was an overall decrease in ED attendances of 35% at ICHNT, of 50% across all London NHS Trusts and 53% nationally. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst those aged younger than 65 and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport). Increasing distance (km) from postcode of residence to hospi
McCabe R, Schmit N, Christen P, et al., 2020, Report 27 Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic
To meet the growing demand for hospital care due to the COVID-19 pandemic, England implemented a range of hospital provision interventions including the procurement of equipment, the establishment of additional hospital facilities and the redeployment of staff and other resources. Additionally, to further release capacity across England’s National Health Service (NHS), elective surgery was cancelled in March 2020, leading to a backlog of patients requiring care. This created a pressure on the NHS to reintroduce elective procedures, which urgently needs to be addressed. Population-level measures implemented in March and April 2020 reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2, prompting a gradual decline in the demand for hospital care by COVID-19 patients after the peak in mid-April. Planning capacity to bring back routine procedures for non-COVID-19 patients whilst maintaining the ability to respond to any potential future increases in demand for COVID-19 care is the challenge currently faced by healthcare planners.In this report, we aim to calculate hospital capacity for emergency treatment of COVID-19 and other patients during the pandemic surge in April and May 2020; to evaluate the increase in capacity achieved via five interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, and deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff); and to determine how to re-introduce elective surgery considering continued demand from COVID-19 patients. We do this by modelling the supply of acute NHS hospital care, considering different capacity scenarios, namely capacity before the pandemic (baseline scenario) and after the implementation of capacity expansion interventions that impact available general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators. Demand for hospital care is accounted for in terms of non-COVID-19 and COVID-19 patients. Our results suggest that NHS England would not have had sufficient daily capacity
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